Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

COVID News: I'm seeing a significant shift in federal messaging that emphasizes that we're not going to eradicate SARS2 in the US. Whether this drives a decrease in the national and local media platforms negative narrative is TBD. I think it has potential to do that...... hasn't happened in FL yet and that has a lot to do with wanting to pillory Desantis.

On the same note an article appeared in my NYT's news feed this morning that the risk of a breakthrough reinfection in vaccinated people is grossly overblown ..... like 1 in 5000 chance of it and that is reinfection not serious illness or death which is probably a 1 in 100,000 type of thing.

The basis for this announcement from the federal level is that it was believed that the viral load in the orophyranx of those afflicted with a break through infection (with Delta) was the same or higher than the viral load in a newly infected un-vaxed person. Based on three studies (I've read them), it's not. IOW if you do catch it you probably won't know it and probably aren't spreading it to the degree the unvaxed might.

It's also been determined from emerging data in the US that you are nearly 10X more likely to become infected with SARS2 D if unvaccinated than vaccinated ........ this is a different way of looking at the previous stat that unvaxed had a 2% chance of becoming seriously ill or dying from COVID and about a 10% chance of catching it at all. Those are low chances.

Let's look at that. The good news is that in FL, new case numbers are predictably declining (see yesterday's COVID post as to the irrelevance of that) along with % positivity. Deaths remain high (FL leads the nation in deaths per 100K but has a CFR of 1.3, the global average.) Sunday, the number of new cases was a bit over 11,000, down from 17K. If there is a one to ten relationship re vax v. unvaxed catching D, for every 1 new case, 10 of those will be unvaxed or about 10K new cases among the 11K are getting it and spreading it around to others (remember D has a much higher R(0) than A.

There are two cohorts of consequence emerging in the debate about vaccines mandates and the impact on making COVID regionally manageable. - an unvaxed cohort that contributes to the spread of the virus at a much higher rate than a less risky vaccinated cohort.

Just more proof that if we want PH authorities who are facing "do something" pressures not to do anything to restrict mobility or social contact, case numbers have to fall and stay low. The only way to do that is through vaccines ...... or, sure, we could have governments implementing mask mandates, closing schools and kids sports, quarantining the infected, canceling big gatherings and fall festivals, all of that shit.

[Tom W]

It's ok if you tell the right lies, i.e., the lies the Media knows are basically true -- so what if UVa was a total lie, we all know rich, white frat boys gang rape girls all the time, so it's ok.

If RS was trying to serve up a warning to those vulnerable young ladies, then their message is clearly failing.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Why would anyone got to Rolling Stone as a news source?

That's like going to The WIzard for advice on siring male children.

Touche'

[lineygoblue]

I only tag the ones I love, Wiz.

::::: in my best Stevie Wonder voice:::: you are the sunshine of my life ...

[THE_WIZARD_]

...do you really wanna hurt me...do you really want to make me cry...

[lineygoblue]

Boy George always gets to me ... the genius of The Boy cannot be matched.

Even George Michael at his best could not match the talents of The Boy ...

[THE_WIZARD_]

...lets hear it for the boy...

[Jeff Buchanan]

COVID News: This comes from a pay-walled article in the Sun Sentinel, a regional paper that covers S FL. The central point the author makes is that fear of Delta is crippling a rebound in the hotel industry in S. FL already struggling from nearly 2y of significantly reduced revenues. During the lock downs, hotel rooms were scarce as people from the mid west and NE sought places to stay in sunny FL to work remotely. That slowed and during the summer months as restrictions were dropped in those areas and employers asked workers to return to the work place, with new cases declininig, travel and leisure picked up. Things looked bright ..... until the out sized Delta scare that I talked about yesterday.

To reiterate, you have a 1 in 5000 daily chance of a break through infection producing mild to no symptoms if you're vaxed, 1 in 100K of serious illness. You're more likely to die from an accidental discharge of a fire arm.

Whose fault is it for creating this alternate reality? It's a combination of confusing and often misleading information from federal and state health authorities, political grandstanding and the MSM's penchant to out size the threat of Delta to increase clicks.

My point is that on the ground, the damaging effect on the US economy, especially the travel and leisure sector, of this alternate reality re SARS2 D/COVID is seldom emphasized but it is massive. IMO, the way to reverse the economic pain is to focus on vaccines and thier benefits: you are 9-10X more likely to get infected and spread the virus if unvaxed; unquestionably gives rise to an increase in new cases, throws logs on the fire of the MSM's negative COVID reporting and governments facing "do something" pressure.

I'm no longer advocating for rational thinkers who won't get vaxed to get vaxed. They are mostly unconvinceable. I've spoken of the other groups of Americans who don't know, cant' get to vaccination sites, and/or are fearful or any number of barriers to vaccination. This is the target audience.

Yesterday the US reached a milestone: 70% of the US adult population has at least one shot. The bad news is that the vax rate nation wide is uneven with the SE states still hovering at or below 50%. These areas will continue to suffer high new case numbers and create environments for SARS2 mutations of unknown threat. That's just not good.

[iam416]

You have two issues on each end, Buchanan. You have people who don't think the vaccine is safe and effective or, perhaps, are willing to tolerate the 0.something% risk. Then you have the people who don't think the vaccine is safe and effective -- i.e., don't appreciate that the vaccinated are at extremely low risk -- and treat being vaccinated in this time like they're walking through the streets of 15th C Florence during a bubonic plague outbreak.

Absent some sort of truly devastating variant that ups the fatality rate to something like 5-10%, you're never going to convince the first group. However, you should be able to work on the second group. But, apparently, you can't.

So, we end up with people screaming utter nonsense about how vaccines aren't safe or some such shit and other people screaming about how the vaccines aren't safe enough. And, of course, the whole thing is grotesquely politicized. Meanwhile, the silent middle gets their vaccine and pretty much knows they're good to go.

Again, almost everyone is gonna get Covid antibodies one way or the other. I've been at the "really don't give a fuck about the unvaccinated" point for about 2 months now. Still there.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Boosters? They're coming starting September 20th according to Biden administration spokespersons. Only the mRNA vaccines are going to be available and, in general, you should not mix them. If you got the J&J jab, boosters won't be available right away and there is some studies that show you got a stronger immune response from the J&J vax than from an mRNA vax. Immunocompromised Americans can already receive the booster. The criteria for that classification is pretty strict. None of us here would meet them as far as I can determine

Boosters will be introduced in a a similar fashion of priorities as the original vaccines. The first barrier is 8 months from your last shot. After that the usual suspects will get boosters first.

What are they? The same formulation as the original. These aren't tweaked vaccines. They might be at some point in the future, like flu vaccines, but not yet.

You can get your flu shots and COVID shots together in opposite arms. Flu shots should be administered by the end of October.

Studies reveal that mRNA vaxed people see a decline in protection from SARS2 D infection (down to about 40%) and serious illness/death (down to about 80%) after 8 months from last shot. These same studies also reveal that the boosters restore the 90/98% protection. It's unknown how long that level of protection will last.

Assess your own risks and proceed accordingly. If you live in areas with low viral prevalence the risk of breakthrough reinfection is lower and the urgency of getting a booster is decreased.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I've been at the "really don't give a fuck about the unvaccinated" point for about 2 months now. Still there.

I appreciate this view, I really do. But it is irrelevant to the issue I addressed above. Is the virus spreading? Yes and in particular in areas with low vax rates. Does this stoke the utterly false dire consequences narrative from the MSM? Yes and I'm not seeing any reduction in it - even when case numbers are declining like they are in FL, you get the but, but but, shit rejoinders. That in turn prompts PH authorities to use that useless metric - new case number - and start directing masks indoors and outdoors, unnecessarily quarantining kids for longer than is necessary, canceling kids sports, ignoring testing protocols that could reduce that sort of thing, closing schools and all of that.

I'm anticipating CFB stadia restrictions if this last weekend shows that those venues prompted out breaks. I'm concerned that contextualized and in reality t's not a threat if there is an increase in case numbers, for example in Washtenaw Co., but that won't make any difference for the reasons I provide above.

So,, IMO, I do give a fuck about the unvaccinated - not the rational thinkers who don't want it but rather the groups I speak of. It can be done. On Sundays, you go to the whatever Ebeneezer Church in metro Detroit or Philly or Chicago with a shit ton of shots, the preacher praises the lord for those shots and the congregation lines up to get them. I've seen it. It works. Plenty of other ways to do this.

[iam416]

Well, right. I guess. The reason to care that there are unvaccinated folks is the completely irrational reaction of some vaccinated folks concerning the case numbers for unvaccinated folks.

Again, we have two groups who, some sense, don't think the vaccine is safe and effective.

[Hannibal]

I don't care about the unvaccinated. Period. If the age vulnerability profile of Covid-19 was different, then I would feel differently because children cannot make judgements like we can, but since the victims are still overwhelmingly in the 65+ range, that's not an issue. By now, if you have a TV or you have stepped out of your house, then you have been bombarded with advertisements and propaganda telling you to get vaccinated. We have reached peak vaccine propaganda. There is no more encouragement to be done. We might get a slow trickle of people as employers increasingly require vaccines, but that's it.

I'm not getting a booster unless somebody can convince me that I need it for my own safety.

[Da Geezer]

This is a pretty interesting article about the five terrorists that were "traded" for Beau Bergdahl. Four of them are in the new Taliban government.

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2021/09/07/four-of-obamas-taliban-five-take-top-leadership-posts-in-afghan-government/

[Obi-Jon]

..... There is no more encouragement to be done. We might get a slow trickle of people as employers increasingly require vaccines, but that's it. I'm not getting a booster unless somebody can convince me that I need it for my own safety.

Your probably right on all counts. Because of sepsis and sepsis shock, I am severely immun-compromised. A booster is required for me during one of the changes of post hospitalization treatments. Even that will be only partially effective (better than none). Docs have also stated I must avoid all unvaccinated which is difficult as none wear signs. I live in Trumplandia, home of the unvaxxed, Means I'm home bound, except for friends and family where the entire household is vaxxed.

I find it slightly unfair to be exiled or risk being killed with impunity by an unvaxxed knuckle dragger. But such is the world I live in today.