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This is where I don't know which is worse: if Biden made the decision alone to shut the base before the evacuation (and everyone kept their head down and followed orders) or if a bunch of the people at the Pentagon suggested doing it.
And it also goes back again to the question of whether Biden and many of his top advisors delusionally believed the Afghan army would really hold out for at least a year and they had plenty of time to slowly evacuate the civilians.
Circling back to the decisions regarding Bagram Air Field, I went back and looked at the timeline of events and read through the transcript of Biden's remarks from the July 8 presser at the WH. Technically, that WAS the last place we held. It was on July 2nd that we shipped out the remaining U.S. troops in the middle of the night. It's clear from the president's remarks on 7/8 that they thought (incorrectly) that the Afghan forces would hold it together much longer than they did. Problem is, the Taliban offensive began in early May. They were already running roughshod over the country for two months before we pulled out the last of our troops.
Judging from public comments from Biden and top military officials, it seems pretty clear that they were surprised by the rapid collapse of Afghan forces. That said, how could they NOT have seen the quick Taliban advance and realized that they need to start getting civilians out ASAP. This is the fundamental failure. If they actually planned for a bunch of contingencies as they claim, there would have been an audible called at that point. This isn't a hindsight is 20/20 kind of thing. It was unfolding in real time for two months. It was obvious to anyone with minimal knowledge of that shithole that the Afghan government's life expectancy was measured in days and weeks, not months or years.
Furthermore, it is plain for all to see that the idiots trotted out for these pressers have no goddamn idea what they're doing. I watched Blinkin's interview on Meet the Press from last Sunday and he stated how the Taliban is at their strongest militarily since 2001 (this is an oft-repeated talking point) when asked about why Afghan forces collapsed so quickly. Then maybe 5 minutes later he was asked if America is safer now as a result of our 20 year effort and he said (paraphrasing), Oh yeah! We've degraded their capabilities down to nothing! They are a shell of what they were in 2001.
Early reports of 3 or 4 U.S. troops injured or killed in the airport blast. Another bomb went off at the Barron Hotel which is known for hosting Americans. A U.S. official says the bomber was affiliated with ISIS.
And that will seriously hamper the fleeting time there is left to get people out. These next 5 days will be pretty intense.
I don't believe we have anything near 5 days. I believe most NATO countries have completed their evacuations, including Turkey. Turkey was supposed to be the last out because it was thought that a Muslim country might be treated with some deference. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...an-2021-08-25/
The military is going to ramp up their evacuation tomorrow. The hostages cannot come to the airport because of the ISIS-K threat. Further, any jihadist with a pickup truck and a mortar tube will be able to shut down the airport.
Yep. The civilian airlift is essentially over but we still have the small matter of getting our 5,000 or so troops out while holding back the mass of people surrounding the airport. Get ready for images that will be shown forever as a big middle finger to the USA.
Circling back to the decisions regarding Bagram Air Field, I went back and looked at the timeline of events and read through the transcript of Biden's remarks from the July 8 presser at the WH. Technically, that WAS the last place we held. It was on July 2nd that we shipped out the remaining U.S. troops in the middle of the night. It's clear from the president's remarks on 7/8 that they thought (incorrectly) that the Afghan forces would hold it together much longer than they did. Problem is, the Taliban offensive began in early May. They were already running roughshod over the country for two months before we pulled out the last of our troops.
Judging from public comments from Biden and top military officials, it seems pretty clear that they were surprised by the rapid collapse of Afghan forces. That said, how could they NOT have seen the quick Taliban advance and realized that they need to start getting civilians out ASAP. This is the fundamental failure. If they actually planned for a bunch of contingencies as they claim, there would have been an audible called at that point. This isn't a hindsight is 20/20 kind of thing. It was unfolding in real time for two months. It was obvious to anyone with minimal knowledge of that shithole that the Afghan government's life expectancy was measured in days and weeks, not months or years.
Furthermore, it is plain for all to see that the idiots trotted out for these pressers have no goddamn idea what they're doing. I watched Blinkin's interview on Meet the Press from last Sunday and he stated how the Taliban is at their strongest militarily since 2001 (this is an oft-repeated talking point) when asked about why Afghan forces collapsed so quickly. Then maybe 5 minutes later he was asked if America is safer now as a result of our 20 year effort and he said (paraphrasing), Oh yeah! We've degraded their capabilities down to nothing! They are a shell of what they were in 2001.
What these idiots need is for us to be dumber.
One person I keep letting off the hook is Jake Sullivan and the NSC. He may have played a big role in this. If the military was casting doubt on the Afghan ability to hold but Sullivan was saying oh no, those guys will do fine, I can unfortunately see Biden trusting what Sullivan was saying. I don't know that that's what happened, I just doubt that people like Austin and Milley were delusionally confident that the Afghans would fight. So if they told Biden they would, they were lying, exaggerating, or just telling Biden what he wanted to hear.
Did you hear Milley's reaction to a reporter asking him about Bagram? I think it was in a presser a week or so ago. The question was something like "wouldn't Bagram have been more useful for a mass evac? why'd you guys leave?". My impression from Milley's reaction was that maybe he had raised that exact point in meetings.
Now, Chairman Big Rig's execution in Afghanistan is sheer poo. The Rs don't even need to play politics with it -- it's a borderline consensus disaster.
There are two possibilities here: (1) The Biden administration's Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Top Intelligence and State Department Officials and advisors in these entities who were heard regarding the plans to withdraw from Afghanistan are utterly incompetent boobs or (2) An orchestrated plan to butt-fuck the US was devised by a coalition of Afghanies who came together, just for this purpose, then to return to their tribes and scramble for power in the after math of the American humiliation and withdrawal.
I have a problem with possibility (1). I do think the muddled presidential transition is playing a role in the debacle. OTH, there's nothing solid suggesting that possibility (2) went down as planned. Seems to me though that something totally unexpected and related to that happened.
Now, what about contingency planning? Would one not think that possibility (2) would have been considered? Certainly it was but such are the ways of high level national strategy where disguising actual intent is an art of war. I think there is something to possibility (2) having occurred. None of us can wrap our heads around what a cluster-fuck this is. That could be because our enemies managed it.
But, I take your point on this:
I think there's a strong case to be made that our foreign policy in general is hamstrung by politics. It's difficult to have a coherent foreign policy when everything DJT does or Chairman Big Rig does is BAD!!!!
I think trying to unravel what actually has happened with the military disengagement and withdrawal is a separate issue from understanding America's grand strategy that got us to this point in the first place. Kissenger comments:
An underlying issue has dogged our counterinsurgency efforts from Vietnam to Iraq for over a generation. When the United States risks the lives of its military, stakes its prestige and involves other countries, it must do so on the basis of a combination of strategic and political objectives. Strategic, to make clear the circumstances for which we fight; political, to define the governing framework to sustain the outcome both within the country concerned and internationally.
Kissinger goes on as you do in stating that our strategy is hamstrung by politics. That goes nowhere in figuring out WTF happened here in this instance. I tend to think some form of possibility (2) went down.
As to America's grand strategy in supporting it's national interests and global objectives, the reality of it's execution, it's outcomes, seem to be much different than what I have read about it to be. I don't think that is a matter of political infighting. I think it is a matter of purposeful headwinds devised by our adversaries (e.g., possibility 2) that thwart achieving the desired strategic, and in this immediate case, tactical outcomes. The failure to anticipate, plan for and then "audible" out of a bad play is a significant failure of at least three successive administrations involved in Afghanistan and going back quite a few more since the end of WWII.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
One person I keep letting off the hook is Jake Sullivan and the NSC. He may have played a big role in this. If the military was casting doubt on the Afghan ability to hold but Sullivan was saying oh no, those guys will do fine, I can unfortunately see Biden trusting what Sullivan was saying. I don't know that that's what happened, I just doubt that people like Austin and Milley were delusionally confident that the Afghans would fight. So if they told Biden they would, they were lying, exaggerating, or just telling Biden what he wanted to hear.
Did you hear Milley's reaction to a reporter asking him about Bagram? I think it was in a presser a week or so ago. The question was something like "wouldn't Bagram have been more useful for a mass evac? why'd you guys leave?". My impression from Milley's reaction was that maybe he had raised that exact point in meetings.
Agreed on Sullivan. Like his colleagues, he comes across as a rank amateur.
Pretty sure I saw that exchange with Milley. There's a lot of non-verbal communication from him and Austin when asked certain questions. You can tell they're seething and just want to say "yep, we fucking told him over and over". Now that's not to let them totally off the hook either. When you have a situation this bad it's hard to say anyone has performed particularly well. But at the end of the day, POTUS is both the head coach and QB out there with the game in his hands.
When you have a situation this bad it's hard to say anyone has performed particularly well. But at the end of the day, POTUS is both the head coach and QB out there with the game in his hands.
Possibility (1).
That is some scary shit on all kinds of levels.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
I've seen some aftermath video of what I think was the attack on the gate in the big drainage ditch you hear reporters talking about. Looked pretty bad. Wouldn't be surprised if at least 50 or more were wounded/killed. Didn't notice any troops. Officially I think the death toll is around a dozen (for now).
Jeff, I'm more in the #1 camp. While your #2 scenario is a very reasonable hypothesis it doesn't hold water, IMO, for a couple reasons.
First, Afghan leadership, both military and civilian, is laughably inept and corrupt. I was speaking with my old team leader, a 2nd Lieutenant back in 2005 who has since made the O-5 list (Lt. Colonel), and he said he has a hard time blaming the young Afghan soldiers because "their leaders are awful". Anyone with the means to escape left their soldiers high and dry. Once that happens, the house of cards collapses. Occom's Razor. Second, if this happened and we were backstabbed by the Afghan government, administration officials would be screaming it from the rooftops. Their first priority seems to be blame shifting and historical rewrites. With the amount of heat they are taking, an elaborate stunt like you suggest would be called out in a second.
I'm coming to a strongly held belief that the U.S. inexplicably overestimated the resolve of the Afghan army over the objections of many in the intelligence community. I also hypothesize that the current obsession with race and "social justice" bullshit has permeated the federal government to the point it has had a debilitating affect on the ability to govern effectively. While looking back for comments from Gen. Milley I was reminded of his impassioned testimony on CRT. That was on June 23, a little more than a week before we abandoned Bagram and set this shit show in motion. But hey, we have wonderful diversity training programs. I'm really not interested that we have the first of THIS in a position and the first of THAT over there, and we need an Indian woman in charge of something... Just do your fucking jobs.
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