Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

You people make Strangelove look lucid.

Geraghty with a little column on vaccinations: https://www.nationalreview.com/the-m...cine-mandates/

Touches on (1) mandating an "emergency use only" vaccine; and (2) unvaccinated population distributions -- rural/ubran -- i.e., yeah, a 20% sounds terrible, but it's a rural county, the actual numbers are way low and people way spread out vs. a 55% rate in, say, Los Angeles County leaving over 4M unvaccinated and in close quarters.

Is that vaccination rate based on the adult population or the entire population? Because as of 2010, a quarter of LA County was under the age of 18 (versus only 10% over 65). That'd be around 2.5M today.

https://web.archive.org/web/20110703090819/http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06/06037.html

Overall I take his point but with the caveat that the average person in rural America skews older than people living in big cities. This is a little out of date but in 2012, roughly half of rural residents were aged 50 or older. It probably hasn't gotten younger since then. But yeah, the raw numbers of unvaccinated people in urban America will be bigger.

https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2012/09/26/main-report-13/

[Jeff Buchanan]

Is that vaccination rate based on the adult population or the entire population? Because as of 2010, a quarter of LA County was under the age of 18 (versus only 10% over 65). That'd be around 2.5M today.

https://web.archive.org/web/20110703090819/http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06/06037.html

Overall I take his point but with the caveat that the average person in rural America skews older than people living in big cities. This is a little out of date but in 2012, roughly half of rural residents were aged 50 or older. It probably hasn't gotten younger since then. But yeah, the raw numbers of unvaccinated people in urban America will be bigger.

https://www.pewresearch.org/internet...ain-report-13/

These two points make it abundantly clear why some kind of federal or state universal vaccine mandate is absurd. I have no problem with businesses, schools or city governments requiring vaccinations but that falls under a different set of standards and laws.

These points also make it clear why most of the nonsense that came out and is still coming out of both federal and state level PH agencies is worthless. None of it is granular enough for individuals to make rational risk assessments and behave accordingly. In this later stages of the pandemic, one size does not fit all. That's why while I generally hold that getting vaccinated contributes to ending the "fucked up hand we've been dealt," I also hold the urgency of getting vaccinated has a lot to do with where you live and work.

[THE_WIZARD_]

My body...my choice...right progs?

[crashcourse]

VA now making immunization mandatory if you want to work there you have 8 weeks to get it.

and its not even FDA approved yet. just for emergency usage

nor is it mandatory in the military yet

wiz with a rare cogent thought

[crashcourse]

deaths per day over last 18 months for 4 states.

media sure like to panic everyone

New COVID-19 Deaths per Day | US News Best States

[Jeff Buchanan]

Break out your mask Wiz, the one with the wings sauce on it. According to the CDC you need to be wearing it.

At 3pm today, the CDC told vaccinated people to mask up. Well, not quite but that's what everyone will hear and everyone will ignore. Hello, No one is listening to you people.

Let's look at this nonsense. Yes, case numbers are rising mostly due to Delta, mostly among the unvaccinated and mostly among the under 50 population. I hate it when reports justifying another empty recommendation from the CDC, the press gives all these percentages, like deaths up 14% and hospitalizations up 62%. Where? What is the baseline?

Frankly, I think the Biden administration sees that the scary messages from the press are being generated by the mumbo-jumbo recommendations from the CDC. That's helping to nudge vax rates up and driving city governments, schools and employers to mandate vaccines. All of that is one way to get to the magical 70% vax rate that most epidemiologists will tell you is herd immunity levels where immunity will cause case numbers to fall supposedly into the manageable level. 85 to 90% immunity either naturally acquired or through vaccination is elimination territory assuming immunity hasn't waned when you get there. Still an unaswered question with scientific based opinions all over the place on that one.

I want you to look at one graph where I have highlighted the key countries to make my point:

26 July Data.PNG

So, what's the point? First, look at India, the UK and Germany. What happens at the peak of their curves? Case counts drop precipitously. To my knowledge none of these countries did anything special. All of them added vaccinations so, that's a factor but that does not explain the drops entirely.

Now look at the UK - big drop about a week ago with essentially no restrictions on British citizens. The Brits do a lot more testing/tracing than any of the others but I don't know if that's a factor. Could be. Germany and India followed the same kinds of trajectories with similar approaches, India basically did nothing at all, both experienced big drops in new case numbers after reaching "scary" high new case counts.

What do you suppose will happen in the US? A PhD in virology is not required to make an informed guess about that.

I could go on to other niggling details to score more points against hand wringing but those have been covered today and relate to the issues of demographics - where you live and where you work. These apply. Masks are definitely not required everywhere and every place and at least I'll give the CDC credit for obtusely mentioning this by saying vaxed should wear masks indoors in some places where transmission risk is high. WTF does that mean and where do I get the granular data that I need to adjust my behavior based on an assessment of that data. It's scarce and requires a lot digging.

FFS national, even state wide masking isn't going to do shit and that is beyond the debate about whether or not masks are effective in blocking transmission.

So, just more political posturing by the CDC to appear to be "DOING SOMETHING."

There are some cool graphs at the link below. I've been here before. I like visuals. You can look at a lot of different X/Y data plots like the ones showing only small comparative increases in hospitalizations and deaths, how vax rates track with decreasing new case numbers and on and on. Excess mortality is another interesting chart.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Even the CDC has improved their data tracking web site. The link below has some pretty granular data. You can look up your county, see the current daily or weekly transmission risk defined by color codes, red being "Very High" and I have no idea what that means and I sure as shit don't trust the CDC. The county I live in in FL is scored "Very High" I guess I should ear a mask wehn I go out to eat. Not.

[CGVT]

VA now making immunization mandatory if you want to work there you have 8 weeks to get it.

and its not even FDA approved yet. just for emergency usage

nor is it mandatory in the military yet

Good on the VA.

It should be mandatory for the military to ensure readiness.

[iam416]

The CDC is not a good or well-run organization and they’re currently headed up by a total Fear Monkey.

Ohio is done with masks. I’m sure some schools will nonsensically require them for kids older than 12, and perhaps a few businesses. But statewide—done.

[Mike]

I just got notification that my office is mandating masks effective immediately. We’ve been back in person just under a month. This is completely fucked up. Let Darwin do his work.

[iam416]

Your vaccine doesn’t make you safe.

[Dr. Strangelove]

The idea that anyone working at the VA, who would presumably have quite a few elderly patients, or in retirement homes for that matter, would refuse point blank to get the same vaccine their patients are getting because it’s “dangerous” or “unproven” is mind boggling. The medical field ain’t for you.

[Mike]

The idea that anyone working at the VA, who would presumably have quite a few elderly patients, or in retirement homes for that matter, would refuse point blank to get the same vaccine their patients are getting because it’s “dangerous” or “unproven” is mind boggling. The medical field ain’t for you.

I have a relative who works in an elder care facility who refuses to get vaccinated. She had Covid in the winter at least.

Some people aren’t the sharpest crayon in the box.

[THE_WIZARD_]

F the mask.

F the vax.

F Fauci.

F Biden.

F all the fear monkeys.

F the CDC.

F all you fucking sheep that bought all this fucking bullshit and STILL do.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Appears to be an interesting results out of the TX-6 special election tonight. This is the runoff race in suburban and exurban Dallas where no Democrat could finish in the top 2.

The Trump-backed candidate, Susan Wright, seems to have lost. She's the widow of Ron Wright, a Congressman who died earlier this year from covid. Scott Perry and Dan Crenshaw were backers of the other guy, Jake Ellzey, and it looks like he's going to win, close to 53-47%

Turnout fairly pathetic. Perhaps less than 20% of all registered voters when its all said and done.

[foxhopper]

Conmmon sense has totally been thrown out the window. You vaxed people are spreadiding this shit.