Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Hannibal]

biden-election-political-cartoon.png?fit=1000%2C1000.png

[iam416]

heh

[Hannibal]

Predictit currently has Biden 290, Trump 248. Trump with about a 40% chance of electoral college victory. I'd probably sell those odds but I don't think that we are looking at a blowout win for Biden and possibly a Biden win decided two days from now by late vote counting in WI and PA.

[Dr. Strangelove]

If you're extremely bored and need something to do at work here's something to periodically check to see if Ohio will be closer than 2016.

Cuyahoga County is live reporting how many people have voted throughout the day. Currently up to 420,000 people. It was 609,000 in 2016. Match or surpass the 2016 total vote and Biden is almost certainly doing better than Clinton here (although no indication it's doing well enough to win)

https://boe.cuyahogacounty.gov/en-US/livevoter.aspx

[iam416]

What's stunning about that is that 609,000 was almost 75% turnout. And Biden will somehow exceed that this year. Cuyahoga County really gets its ballots in.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Predictit currently has Biden 290, Trump 248. .......

I think Biden has to be dominant in key states and that means 51% or more and then get over 300 in the EC to negate court challenges to vote counts and/or allegations of voting irregularities. They're going to happen regardless but judges are less likely to act on a challenge if they hear it or rule in favor when they do.

I'm certain we won't have an identified president by either EC or PV tonight's projections and possibly not even by Friday. Major broadcasters have already hinted they're going to be very careful with predictions that call a state one way or the other for the presidency. The battle over counting ballots post closing of polls in several key states assures that outcome.

I'm not going to watch any of it considering it to be too close to reliable call anything although I suspect the broadcasters will try ..... if not carefully. I doubt a result being accurately called won't occur until later in the week, possibly longer than that if this thing is close.

[lineygoblue]

I hear Gretchen the Cruel is driving busloads of inner city Detroit gang members to rural Shiawasee County to first vote illegally and then terrorize farmsteads and small business owners.

IT'S ELECTION DAY!!!

Fuck Dixville Notch

We've got a plan in place for that.

All us racist rednecks are going to wait until the busses start unloading, and then we're going to roll THOUSANDS of basketballs down the streets so that the 'gangstas' will chase after them instead of going into the polling places.

We expect it to be hugely successful.

ps.. and you spelled "Shiawassee" wrong. You must be bigoted against Native Americans.

[iam416]

Betting odds are currently 60/40. That's a little disconcerting. I'm still saying 300+ w/ it much closer to 2008 than, say, 2000.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Betting odds are currently 60/40. That's a little disconcerting. I'm still saying 300+ w/ it much closer to 2008 than, say, 2000.

I'm not saying to discount them entirely, but in 2016 the betting odds going into Election Day gave Hillary an 88% chance of winning. Everyone remembers the pollsters getting it wrong but not the gamblers.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2016_president/

There's also a weird disconnect this year where Trump supporters overwhelmingly think he will win but a close to 40% of Biden supporters also think Trump will win.

Way, way more people are convinced this year that the polls are wrong. Are they? Guess we'll find out.

[Hannibal]

The polls would have to be more wrong than they were in 2016. They weren't that far off, all things considered. They successfully predicted Trump winning IA, AZ, OH, NC, and FL. Trump overperformed in WI, MI, and PA. They nailed the popular vote. People who expected a Hillary blowout weren't even looking at the polls, it seems.

This time, the polls show Trump down pretty handily in MI and WI, and trailing in AZ instead of leading. If you take Trump's overperformance from 2016 and apply it to 2020, Biden wins with about 290 EVs.

[iam416]

Books aren’t really into setting bad lines. If they think they can clean up on PDJT voters and PTSD-Ds then they will. Maybe they’re already getting enough action on the clear losing side that they don’t need to increase it.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Books aren’t really into setting bad lines. If they think they can clean up on PDJT voters and PTSD-Ds then they will. Maybe they’re already getting enough action on the clear losing side that they don’t need to increase it.

Right, yeah, I shouldn't suggest the books don't know what the hell they're doing. This time around there's just a lot more people that distrust polls because they were burned in 2016 and are now overreacting. Although it's still a possibility that polling is completely broken and will be significantly less useful going forward.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Heh, I promise I won't do this all day but Cuyahoga County up from 420k to 447k voters after the 9-10Am hour. Would normally be busiest from 5PM till polls close but I dunno, the early vote may thin that out a lot.

[CGVT]

From the FWIW department:

I voted last week, but I drove by my normal polilng place a few minutes ago.

Usually the parking lot is pretty empty and there are no lines to get in. Voting here usually takes about 10 minutes.

Today the lot was full and cars were parked on the road. There was a line out the door and around the corner of the building. Not sure how quickly it was moving, but it was an unusual sight. There didn't appear to be any shenanigans going on.

[iam416]

My polling place is packed. Usually 10-15. Today will be 45+