Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Mike]

Dublin, Ohio, eh??

Sounds like a real crack unit. Good thing the Feds nabbed them before they overthrew the government. WHEW!!

[Dr. Strangelove]

haha, Dublin is not the suburb I would've guessed would host a meeting of far right militia types planning to kidnap a Governor. Would have gone with Grove City.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Go get 'em liney!

[Dr. Strangelove]

Anyone hear from Kapture lately???

[THE_WIZARD_]

Krapture?

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'm sorry I have to interrupt a great discussion on Whitmer being the target of a kidnapping by radical Michiganders, packing the USSC with libs and the collapse of democracy as America defines it (BTW, I think there is a risk but not ready for Dr. Kavorkian ..... yet).

I know any of you paying attention see right through the negative COVID narrative. I just want to make sure:

• Hot-Spots - there are some. From what I can tell they are being managed with the exception of rioting Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn giving Deblasio the finger for closing their school, bars and restaurants. They are right, lockdowns don't work, despite what Australia says about them. The press loves Australia. There is a shit ton more going on in that situation but, never mind, details matter not, according to the NYT and WAPO, "lock downs DO WORK!!!
• Case numbers as tallied as a US total are rising. It is highly regional and - surprise, being managed. But let's let Wisconsin or wherever be generalized to the sky is falling for the entire US.
• Percent positivity has remained the same for weeks but you have to look at this figure regionally actually at the county level and on a daily basis or 7d rolling average for it to have meaning. It is a gross distortion of COVID reality to announce that so and so state has a cumulative percent positive of 20% - it probably does but that counts cases from day #1.
• The "hot-spot" of unmasked, un-distanced bar revelry, drunken boating and beach going, the Tri-County region of S. FL, reported all three counties below 5% positivity with cases ticking up slightly but a continued stable or downward trend. FL's R(t) was below 1 (0.97) yesterday in the face of all this "irresponsible behavior."
• US CFR (1.86) adjusted for population is above the EU's but well below most countries. It has held stable for months with a slight downward trend. Caveat ID'ing, reporting and processing deaths varies by county. Absolute value comparison are less useful but trends, at this point, are becoming predictive of declining COVID mortality.

That's enough for now ..... I could go on and you know this. This group is not as much fun as the cruise blog I'm posting on where the number of misinformed is just staggering. I'm getting a lot of likes attached to my posts from those that have converted to my brand of COVID religion.

[Cody_Russell]

Michigan people have been watching too much "National Treasure (2): Book of Secrets" to get an idea of a krapture like that.

Come on Michigan people, get your head out of the gutter and away from classic Nicolas Cage movie ideas.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Cases and hospitalizations are spiking in the upper Midwest and northern Rockies. Basically the last parts of the country that have never seen a real surge till now.

[Hannibal]

Anyone hear from Kapture lately???

He got tired of winning.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Mitch McConnell said today that he hasn't been to the White House in about 2 months because they weren't handling covid over there like he thought they should.

Lot of people of my feed suggesting this is Mitch's signal to the embattled Senators to cut Trump loose if you need to.

[crashcourse]

i think we need to install a mute wiz button around here

thing about cover in the us is we certainly are the most tested bf's running about 35% of the country tested--which leads to a lot more deaths attributed to cover. lots die with covid not necessarily of covid. also of interest--of those 20 or so whitehouse staffers that were positive--doesnt seem to be anyone in trouble from the virus. most of the other countries are less then 10 % testing and certainly don't attribute probable covid deaths in outlying rural or small town areas to covid because most are never tested

bottom line is as a country i think we've done really well with this crisis-not sure why Canada does so well --maybe like the midwest and just haven't had that peak yet who knows-but overall if trump would just have kept his mouth shut about certain things--covid response from a provider standpoint was a lot better then i expected. certainly well short of the 2 million figures we heard

[lineygoblue]

An update on the alleged plot to kidnap Whitmer by the Snooze:

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/10/08/feds-thwart-militia-plot-kidnap-michigan-gov-gretchen-whitmer/5922301002/

Sounds like whomever was doing this may have actually been serious.

Its actually a political bonus for Whitmer now. She's got a 3:00 pm press conference where I'm sure she will take full advantage of the situation to gripe against gun owners and her political opponents. She hasn't handled the spanking she got from the MSC real well, but this could be her consolation prize. She gets to be the victim of an alleged plot against her. CNN and pMSNBC will lap it up like a dog.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I will say this ...... testing and tracing sucks in the US and some, not all, of the blame falls on the Trump administration. IMO, the primary problem is not enough testing devices for specific kinds of testing:

(1) Surveillance
(2) Screening
(3) Diagnosis

This is a CDC classification of testing types. I'm only going to talk about diagnostic and screening tests - the two that you might use.

There are plenty of Molecular, RT/PCR tests available. These are diagnostic tests and are the gold standard for diagnosing COVID. There have been problems with obtaining reagents, swabs, pipettes - all required to collect and process samples in a timely way - but they are local and intermittent. Results should be available in 24h to be of any use in a containment strategy. They aren't although turn-around times are improving. Lab bottlenecks or lack of kit supplies are the problem (another debacle of a story) - still they're available and out there.

There are other "molecular" tests not using the Reverse Transcriptase(RT)/Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) process. I've had problems finding if these are of the same standards of specificity and sensitivity of the FDA approved RT/PCR tests. Manufactures will claim the are but then I can't find them on the CDC's list of approved devices .... among the 3000 that are on the list all of them with different nomenclature!

Screening tests are the ones that you drop a sample in a test device (Cassette or Machine) at the POC and bingo, you get a result in under 15m. Unfortunately, there are shit ton of them out there that aren't great, Bob. Some are counter-fitted. These can be obtained by unscrupulous "testing facilities" - won't be licensed - but whose checking that in the scramble for "I need a fucking test now environment?" Some unwary, legitimate clinics are getting suckered in to buying them.

The ones that are both FDA approved, usually under EUA, are upwards of 97% accurate proven by controlled studies. There are more than just a couple of them but they are hard to track down (see above). Two FDA approved devices that I know of are Abbot Labs products - BIAX-ID, a PCO machine configured device (the one that the WH is supposed to be using) and BIAX-NOW, a cassette configured device. First, the CDC is controlling distribution to state PH authorities of these two devices. First dibs, and rightfully so, are first responders, police, hospitals, nursing home staff and patient's inside those facilities. The BIAX-ID came to market in May or June, The BIAX-NOW product just recently received FDA approval. Why so late? Part of the "debacle" I mentioned above.

The way to get a reliable and real RAPID test is to locate big hospitals that may have received the BIAX products and farmed some of them out to their out-patient/urgent care clinics offering "RAPID" tests. Call and ask if the clinic near you is doing "15 minute testing." The ones that advertise quick or rapid tests - not the real RAPID 15m test - will tell you, well, it's actually 24-72h but that's "considered rapid or quick" these days and that's not a lie. CVS, Walmart, Target/Kroger are all doing the the R/T/PCR tests and will eventually have the RAPID Tests. They are easy to locate, easy to sign up for an appointment to get a COVID test. I thought CVS had the best web site - easy to navigate.

You'll need an appointment and criteria for screening varies by state. Screening forms are usually on line. True RAPID tests are hard to obtain - I tried to schedule them at number of clinics offering them in my area just before in ATL, and just after flying to MI this weekend at my son's request. We are going to visit his family in MI. They are getting tested today but 24 - 72h for results. No-go for the RAPID test, appointments for us filled. Instead, I'm doing an RT/PCR test that won't produce the results we're both after but, according to my son, "better than nothing." We'll only know if I have asymptomatic COVID infection today but only in 24-72h, not after the flight. If I retest in MI 3-5d (virus incubation period) after the flight, results won't be available until 24-72h later, in which case we'll be headed elsewhere.

So much for being responsible and RAPID tests being readily available. They are out there and if we're going to get past this thing, they are absolutely essential to be widely available and at scale. Right now, you just have to plan ahead for a RAPID Test, not decide to schedule the test a day ahead like I tried to do. Appointments will be booked.

If you find a true RAPID test and you test positive, quarantine and you will then need a follow-up RT/PCR level confirmatory test to rule in or rule out COVID. Stay quarantined until you get a negative result.

[lineygoblue]

Jeff

My son just brought me some Apple Bratwurst from Frankenmuth and grilled them on the grill for me.

My biggest regret is that I can't bring a couple dozen of them to Doug's tailgate and grill them up for you guys.

You talk about a good bratwurst. Man, .. those are freaking awesome.

Now all we need is some of Wiz's wings ... LOL

[Jeff Buchanan]

DSL, do I need to fill up my tank with risks to refining in SW Louisiana?