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O'Connor is in bad shape but alive.
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You may or may not be noticing this ...... it's a growing disconnect from what is being reported globally and in particular in the US about COVID and the facts on the ground.
Every morning I wake up to the dreadful news about the impact of COVID. The impact is almost exclusively these days being measured by deaths. That is because new case numbers aren't as flashy as they were at the height of viral spread in the April through June time frame. There's also news fatigue involving these numbers. Deaths? That makes the characterization of the impact of the virus as "dire" seem much more appealing.
On rare occasions, I'll see a headline that says something like, "there's good news among the bad." For example while global spread is still a problem and the number of infected continues to rise. deaths remain flat at between 1% and 2% of confirmed cases. Also noted but only rarely, is the IFR. It's believed confirmed case numbers may be up to 20X lower than the actual number of people infected. That would put the IFR well below 1%. TBF, a lot of deaths attributable to COVID go unreported but that number is believe to be in the range of 5-7 fold not 20X. Still, COVID death rates are comparatively low.
Yeah, it's "dire" but wait, some governments are easing restrictions or removing them altogether. How can this be given how bad things are? Well, they are not as bad as we are led to believe they are. The press is partly to blame but some of the blame lies in the confusing messaging coming from counties, including the US, about mitigation measures that citizens should follow and testing and tracing strategies. It goes without saying that in the US, the messaging has become highly politicized adding to the confusion.
But wait, maybe some officials recognize things aren't bad enough to lock down again. Florida's Governor Desantis announced on Friday that his state is moving to Phase III ...... pretty much everything can open and Florida residents can pretty much resume normal activities while practicing social distancing and wearing masks if local authorities have directed them to be worn. But what about deaths? The press reports the state has a lot of them (no context of course - just a lot of them). The press also reports that the state's positivity rate is 12% overall and reopening is inconsistent with CDC guidance that it be below 5%. Never mind that county-by-county over the last two weeks 95% of FL counties have 1 week rolling average positivity rates below 5%, many below 2%. IOW, when looked at correctly, reopening is completely in accordance with CDC guidelines Those are the facts on the ground that the questioning by the press of Desantis' approach completely ignored in their misleading reports and commentary.
Moving to Phase III won't happen in some FL counties and that is because Desantis has properly given local officials the authority to make their own determinations as to which mitigation measures will be eased and which ones won't. I'm fine with that if keeping mitigation measures in place are based on facts. Some of them are, some aren't. Bars are in that category and I think opening them or not is in a gray area. I can see both sides. The folks tend to be less attentive to distancing and/or masking after a few drinks. OTH, if you don't like what you see in a drinking establishment, don't go inside. Personal responsibility.
The point is that both official and unofficial estimations of SARS - CoV-2 and COVID's impact are hard to know and that is not because it can't be known. It is because of the differences between interpretations of the data. One side - the bad or dire side - gets way too much weight and requires us to dig hard to find out why dire is being over-played and creating unsustainable costs and irreparable damage.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.Comment
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Reports coming in that Trump will officially nominate Barrett later today. No surprise there. Seems like a solid choice and he gets the additional satisfaction of twisting the knife given who she’ll be replacing.Comment
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The biggest disappointment for the D's will be that all of the unreported rape victims that they have stashed away will have to wait until the next Republican court nomination. Which, if they play their cards right, could be 16 years away or more. (Two terms for Kamala and two terms for Michele Obama) Giddy times for those D's...Originally posted by Mike View Post"The stockings were hung by the chimney with care, .. I'd worn them for weeks, and they needed the air"Comment
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Surely we have to be getting close to herd immunity
(Ok, maybe a dumb comment, but lets think of the math...)
- 330M US population per Google. Let's say there are 350M to be safe.
- 7.06M confirmed COVID cases. 7.06/350 = 2.02% people in US have had COVID.
- 7.06M x 6 = 42.36. I've read to assume there have been six times as many people with COVID when looking at confirmed cases.
- 42.36/350 = 12.10%
- Someone getting COVID twice is very rare.
So between 2.02% and 12.10% of the US population have had COVID.
AAL 2023 - Alim McNeillComment
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You’re looking for at least 50% of the population. With some diseases, 90% or more."The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham LincolnComment
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I have seen some speculation about cross immunity from previous corona viruses that will lower that herd immunity % substantially.Comment
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I just want this all over with"The stockings were hung by the chimney with care, .. I'd worn them for weeks, and they needed the air"Comment
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Yeah, I don’t think that’s gonna bear fruit. Coronaviruses usually have very limited acquired immunity anyway (like with the common cold).Originally posted by Hannibal View Post"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham LincolnComment
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"Heard Immunity" will eventually occur but not until a vaccine starts contributing to immunity in humans. There's a lot of conflicting data out there right now on new case numbers and what increases in them means. Death rates are not a perfect proxy measure of disease impact or burden but they are probably the best one available to assess such things. But, you can't keep blurting out "millions have died already and thousands keep dying every day" and have that be a meaningful measure of COVID impact for the public It's way more complicated. You've seen death rates when they are properly presented and contextualized aren't growing in a parallel fashion with new cases on a regional or local basis. I've posted about that.
Within the last two weeks governments are starting to recognize there are going to be new cases and there is no chance of reducing viral spread to zero right now. Over the next 12-18 months, yes, you definitely can as vaccines are distributed at meaningful scale. The present goal has to be to figure out how to co-exist with it without unacceptably high mortality and morbidity burden. Governments are doing that or have already done it.
On Friday, FL's governor Desantis was asked what he was going to do when the inevitable increase in case numbers occur from his plan to basically have FL return to pre-COVID activity in his Phase III directive for the state. His response was, we are prepared to deal with that if it occurs. That's an important qualifier there. He went on to highlight what businesses, especially the restaurant, tourism and hospitality sector, have accomplished by following basic state mitigation guidelines. He emphasized state and local efforts to obtain and deploy PPE, testing and tracing resources and better manage patients admitted to hospitals state wide with COVID. He's made it clear that he wants local officials to stress personal responsibility for avoiding infection without criminalizing infractions of local directives. There will be no forced closings of businesses going forward for those that aren't in compliance with COVID directives. Officials can point out infractions and educate but can no longer cite. Lock-downs aren't going to happen adn counties can no longer order them - FL citizens have a right to work. It's an interesting approach that I'm not completely sanguine about but I get it. We'll see.
We've been living in fear of COVID based on what could happen not what has happened and continues to happen. The facts on the ground demonstrate that while it may be impossible to keep new cases from occurring, it is not impossible to limit mortality and morbidity while returning to some level of pre-COVID activity.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.Comment
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I heard immunity was tough to get."The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham LincolnComment
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State of the race.....using 538 simulations.
2012 Detroit Lions Draft: 1) Cordy Glenn G , 2) Brandon Taylor S, 3) Sean Spence olb, 4) Joe Adams WR/KR, 5) Matt McCants OT, 7a) B.J. Coleman QB 7b) Kewshan Martin WRComment
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This will be interesting. As I reported yesterday, FL's Governor, Ron Desantis has basically cancelled COVID mitigation measures, well, sort-of. If anything, his order to move to Phase III in the state produced mass confusion among business owners in the tri-county region of S. FL. Rules are still in-place - masking, distancing, capacity limits and so forth - local officials just cant enforce them any longer with criminal citations and fines. Frankly, I think the level of restrictions on social and economic activity that I've experienced living here represent government over-reach. What Desantis has said is that he believes FL citizens are capable of acting responsibly in the COVID environment and don't need the government to tell them what to do and enforce failure to do so with criminal charges and fines.
A symbol of anger down here over the imposition of draconian mitigation measures, The Elbow Room on Fort Lauderdale Beach, has staged several demonstrations over the last several months seeking change in Fort Lauderdale's bar closing rules imposed in May.The reasoning went something like if Disney World can open, if restaurants serving food (any kind) and alcohol can be open, if gyms can open, bars should be allowed to open. Well, they did on Saturday and the re-opening of it was well received. The place was busy. The owner announced on his FB page that he intended to limit guests to 140 (max capacity), post placards stating that masks are required and tables will be properly spaced. Depending on what the point of news reports writing about it, you either saw a tight picture of a crowded bar full of patrons without masks or social distancing or a wide angle picture of responsible drinkers socially distancing and wearing masks. The former greatly outnumbering the later. Most of this mornings local news was full of dire warnings about increasing case numbers and deaths secondary to the Desantis Friday surprise.
Miami's Mayor Suarez said the Desantis move was too soon and that progress made controlling the spread of the virus in his city was going to be reversed. Other Mayors in the Tri-County region voiced similar concerns. The biggest impact of the Desantis announcement was that municipalities - all of which have varying COVID mitigation protocols in place - can't enforce them with citations or fines. Officials can point out and educate but not issue citations. FL's Emergency order expires on November 3rd and it looks like it isn't going to be renewed. What that will do is end the authority of local mayors and county commissioners to issue their own EOs. The entire confusing array of South Florida COVID rules which I have spoken about previously, will end. That is because, every one of them derives it's power from the original EO the governor put in place in May.
The debate arising from the Desantis position in FL is a classic one involving the burden of intrusion of government into our lives for the public good set against the value of Laissez-faire government resting on the axioms that the individual is the basic unit in society and has a natural right to freedom...... and I'll add the individual responsibility that freedom bestows. Desantis has always been a limited government proponent and so was his predecessor now Senator Rick Scott. In today's political climate, one that clearly favors more government, I don't think there is any question that his political opponents augmented by the press are going to look at every new case and every new death in FL as being a direct result of Desantis' irresponsible governance involving the pandemic.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.Comment
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There's been an uptick in cases since the first week of September, probably a combination of back-to-school and Labor Day weekend. Not as steep as the previous two rises. There hasn't been an uptick in hospitalizations yet but notice the decline of those has flattened out.
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