Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Ghengis Jon]

You guys are clutching pearls. The WTO has been neutered to a self important, powerless organization. Trump can appeal any ruling to the appeals panel and there the ruling will sit, unenforced, forever, on appeal. China claiming exoneration is very much like Trump's 'victory lap' following Bill Barr's disinformation statement on the Mueller's Report final release. ...so absurd and transparent one wonders how they kept a straight face making those statements. The WTO is irrelevant except in it's own mind.

I hope to God Biden doesn't try to walk back Trump's sissyball policies but hardens them beyond the room temperature yogurt that is currently in place. The problem lies in Trump's perception that the stock market is the only indicator of economic health. He'll do nothing meaningful if it has an adverse impact (even temporary) on the market. China knows this and decided 18 months ago to wait for the next administration. Playing Trump like a fiddle. Xi is gambling big that Biden will somehow be even softer. Biden needs to harden our positions/options to where they should be and make Xi regret not working with Trump. Wagering a lot of political capital that Biden will rollover, here's an opportunity to both undermine Xi's cultivated internal image of invincibility and start really affecting the Chinese economy. A golden opportunity. Eff China.

".....bunch of crazies an influential place in the....presidency...." Umm, where ya been the last 3 1/2 years?

[lineygoblue]

Only problem is ... even if Biden wins, he's not going to be President for very long.

Kamala, Nancy and Chuck will be running everything. Maybe as early as next year at this time.

China will have good friends in DC.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Vaccine news ----> Pfizer announced this morning that they now have the 30,000 volunteers they wanted to start Stage 3 trials

[Dr. Strangelove]

Mitt Romney just single-handedly blocked Ron Johnson's Committee from issuing subpoenas related to Hunter Biden/Burisma. Romney says Johnson's recent comments to the media made it clear to him that this 'investigation" was all about politics and helping Trump, not uncovering actual wrong-doing.

He voted to approve other subpoenas related to the transition period and 'unmasking', but not the stuff clearly targeting the Bidens.

One of Johnson's top sources for Biden "dirt" was a Ukrainian politician who was sanctioned last week by the Treasury Dept, who said he is a Russian Intelligence asset tasked with meddling in the Election.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/treasury-imposes-sanctions-ukrainian-lawmaker-who-worked-rudy-giuliani-n1239804

[Jeff Buchanan]

Of interest to global economic status watchers ...... read an Atlantic Article yesterday (caveat the Atlantic is a leftist rag that continues the tribe's world is coming to an end narrative) that was surprisingly on point if not just more leftist hand wringing. Yesterday, I was in the mood for that. I've come to my more hopeful senses today.

It described the immense impact on multiple levels of the supply chain precipitated by COVID - yes, COVID is what they are blaming but the reality is it was the global stupefying, idiotic reaction to it by governments of all political stripes. Exception = Sweden.

The article explained why toilet paper and cleaning products disappeared and even now, are scarce. I think most of us know why this is, but still ....... Things I didn't think about though that are now in short supply on the shelves and in warehouses and are also in high demand were common items like housewares and home furnishings. Building supplies are hard to get and expensive. The downside is that this is going to take a long time for equilibrium to get re-established post-COVID; it may bring about significant change, not for the good, in how consumers obtain stuff. Buying stuff is one of the primary ways the global economy keeps chugging along blissfully happy with most people employed and making money. That folks have money and won't or can't spend it on stuff is a bigger deal than I thought it was.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...opping/616353/

[Dr. Strangelove]

CDC Director Redfield says today that he thinks a vaccine will be available to the general public sometime late 2nd quarter/early 3rd quarter 2021.

EDIT: Also, last night Trump told the town hall that "a lot of people" think wearing masks is "no good". Today Redfield says wearing masks is as important in the fight against covid as a vaccine, maybe even more so.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/coro...r-of-2021.html

[Dr. Strangelove]

Here's an examination of Sweden from one of Talent's most-cited authors, Jim Geraghty. He makes some of the same points I have made.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/but-what-about-sweden-well-lets-take-a-look-over-there/

[Jeff Buchanan]

DSL, hope you went back and read Geraghty's piece that he wrote the day before. He was pilloried for being Eore and, I would say, rightfully so. In the article you linked to, he is responding to the "what about Sweden" take of his many critics. It's weak sauce, IMO. He acknowledges Sweden's success in confronting the virus and preventing economic decline secondary to typical lockdowns and attributes it entirely to the willingness of the Swedes to act on the recommendations of officials without using the force of law. Fine then. Sweden did well and is likely to look better in the after-action-reports when COVID is contained than other EU nations who throttled their economies and created massive unemployment by the lock-everything-down approach. Isn't that what he says in the article? I thought he did. Maybe you just interpret it the way I'd expect you to and I interpret in the way you'd expect me to.

Look, there are some idiots out there that have said and keep stupidly saying all the things Geraghty lists that set the US back in its efforts to mitigate the public health impact of SARS-CoV-2. But not me or most of us here and most certainly a big chuck of rational folks in the US aren't saying any of that stupid shit. They know this is a serious infectious disease. They know the simplest of mitigation measures keep themselves from getting COVID and can have a positive impact on community spread when the community at large behaves. But from what I can tell, those of us who have taken your positions to task sure as hell don't think the US should continue lock downs and closings as a way to confront the virus. Initially, when we didn't know much about the virus and Italy was stacking body bags up outside hospitals, sure, it looked like lock-downs were the right approach. No more and my position is that we need to learn to live with the virus and, as that Belgian dude that I quoted this morning said, find equilibrium without destroying economies and creating a host of other social catastrophes with sledge hammer, across the board closings.

Now, the President fucked it up with his messaging although fundamentally he had the right idea (let's not panic) if not a horrendous way of putting that idea into action. I believe that if HHS, all its elements and especially the CDC had been left alone to do what they do best, manage infectious disease spread through appropriate public health initiatives, deaths would not have reached the numbers that they have. I say that even though the US Public Health System wasn't the best. It was probably good enough to do a much better job than has been done. Trump's inappropriate involvement, the silencing of contradictory expert voices, the firing of key PH players who were then replaced with Trump cronies, is smack-dab at the front of the line in the blame game.

Speaking of deaths ..... I appreciate the implications. I empathise with the families that have lost loved ones to COVID. It's awful that 200,000 Americans have died. I acknowledge that there could have and should have been fewer deaths but fuck it ..... could and should are useless terms. It is what it is. The reality is that COVID's CFR remains exceedingly low overall...... about 1.9%. Moreover, for it to be used solely as a measure of success or failure of America's response to the pandemic is fraught with errors. Huge errors and you know this because we've talked about them here .... in detail. So, stop promoting COVID deaths as THE thing we ought to be concerned with.

It remains that the preponderance of deaths has occurred among people over 75 - approaching 160,000 or about 60% of all deaths in fact. You have to age stratify CFR for it to have any meaning. https://www.physiciansweekly.com/the...se-fatalities/. That's sad but by comparison, millions ..... MILLIONS ..... of American citizens have had their lives seriously impacted if not completely ruined by a cratered US economy, the result of poorly executed and inappropriate mitigation measures to "flatten the curve, save lives, protect the vulnerable" - whatever that closed everything, with that stupid that approach continuing today, when it is blatantly obvious there are better, more surgical, approaches. That is even more sad, IMO. But yeah, lets not lose sight of those mounting deaths while it is blindingly demonstrable that shutting everything down isn't going to prevent them, especially in the over 75 age group if they become infected.

[Hannibal]

When it's not patriarchy causing the virus, it's people speaking English.

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[Dr. Strangelove]

The President fucked up messaging? Ya think? He is, even now, undermining the use of masks. He mocks wearing them. He tells reporters to take them off if they want to speak to him. He tells the public that "many people" actually think they are harmful.

Honestly what he's done goes beyond mere 'messaging'...he has undermined his own administration's policies. AND STILL IS!

[lineygoblue]

When it's not patriarchy causing the virus, it's people speaking English.

... and going to Church .... and singing ...

but definitely not rioting and looting ... never....

[Jeff Buchanan]

The President fucked up messaging? Ya think? He is, even now, undermining the use of masks. He mocks wearing them. He tells reporters to take them off if they want to speak to him. He tells the public that "many people" actually think they are harmful.

Honestly what he's done goes beyond mere 'messaging'...he has undermined his own administration's policies. AND STILL IS!

No argument there. My relevant argument is that CFR CANNOT be the sole data point by which a country's, state's or city's response to the pandemic is judged. It CANNOT be the single data point used for determining the need for imposition or suspension of mitigation measures. The media has made CFR just that and Geraghty is complicit. This despite the obvious and prodigious errors in it's calculation. His first article uses CFR to make it's point - the US response to the pandemic is a miserable failure if deaths are a measure of that - he was pilloried and then his second article, the one you linked to, tried to show Sweden made mistakes and, accordingly, suffered a higher CFR than its Scandanavian neighbors to achieve less social and economic consequences. Unfortunately for Geraghty's argument, Sweden has done well by most other and important measures.... and I believe Geraghty stubbornly admits it or, at least, admits it might look that way when all is said and done.

[AlabamAlum]

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[AlabamAlum]

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[Dr. Strangelove]

No argument there. My relevant argument is that CFR CANNOT be the sole data point by which a country's, state's or city's response to the pandemic is judged. It CANNOT be the single data point used for determining the need for imposition or suspension of mitigation measures. The media has made CFR just that and Geraghty is complicit. This despite the obvious and prodigious errors in it's calculation. His first article uses CFR to make it's point - the US response to the pandemic is a miserable failure if deaths are a measure of that - he was pilloried and then his second article, the one you linked to, tried to show Sweden made mistakes and, accordingly, suffered a higher CFR than its Scandanavian neighbors to achieve less social and economic consequences. Unfortunately for Geraghty's argument, Sweden has done well by most other and important measures.... and I believe Geraghty stubbornly admits it or, at least, admits it might look that way when all is said and done.

My view is that there's no one-size-fits-all strategy approach to covid that every country, if they were smart, should have followed. What's practical or works in South Korea probably won't work here. What might work in Sweden might be a disaster here. There's too many differences between countries of significantly different sizes. And culture matters too.

In the early months lots of liberals would point to South Korea and say why can't WE do that? But they have recent experience of dealing with an airborne pandemic, already use facemasks in everyday life, and have a less individualistic culture than we do. Somewhere along the way, a lot of conservatives or at least very Pro-Trump people began to say everyone should do what Sweden is doing. Geraghty is pointing out that these people:

a) Exaggerate the extent to which Sweden avoided all lockdowns. In fact, Sweden put restrictions on bars and restaurants. They banned public events over 50 people. They locked down retirement homes. They "recommended" anyone that could do so should work from home.

b) Are not comparing Sweden to its actual peers but are comparing Sweden to countries much larger in population, much more dense, and much less geographically isolated. Yeah, Sweden looks good compared to Italy. But Iceland looks good compared to Sweden. Does that mean Iceland's the model we should all follow?

c) The whole point of Sweden's strategy was to theoretically get to herd immunity faster while keeping the vulnerable population safe. But by early summer, the highest rate of antibodies, in a Stockholm suburb, was 18%. Most of Sweden was still in the single digits. So it's not clear that Sweden is any 'safer' going into the future than the rest of Europe.

What would you be able to point to that conclusively shows Sweden did a better job than Norway and Finland?