Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[AlabamAlum]

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[Dr. Strangelove]

Trump's political hacks interfered with or delayed CDC reports which they felt "undermined" the President's messaging. And still are.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/11/exclusive-trump-officials-interfered-with-cdc-reports-on-covid-19-412809

[Dr. Strangelove]

NY Times did surveys in some states that haven't had much polling. New Hampshire is the surprisingly good one for Trump

New Hampshire: Biden +3
Nevada: Biden +4
Wisconsin: Biden +5
Minnesota: Biden +9

Lot of interesting questions. Lumping the four states together voters viewed "law & order" issues in equal importance to covid, but this hasn't hurt Biden dramatically. In fact, he leads Trump 50-46 on the law & order issue. 62% say crime in America is a major problem but only 13% say its a problem where they live.

A strong majority think Biden hasn't done enough to condemn the riots (54%) but the same number (54%) think Trump is encouraging the violence. So in these close states the riot issue is more of a wash that one might assume.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/crosstabs-MN-NH-NV-WI.pdf/80f8e4634fe6f880/full.pdf

[Jeff Buchanan]

Good news. The media will find a way to spin this negatively but it will be hard. The Oxford AZ vaccine Phase III trails will resume. No details were released about the woman in England who was participating in the on going vaccine trial and reportedly became ill this week. My guess is that she was either in the placebo group or the reportedly bad reaction to the vaccine (a neurological condition) was unrelated to the vaccine. This was a quick turnaround after the pause. Unlikely it's the vaccine that caused her illness.

[lineygoblue]

Israel will sign a peace treaty with Bahrain in addition to UAE within the next couple of weeks. Of course, this was not even mentioned by the MSM. This will be the 2nd Arab nation to normalize relations with Israel in the past month, and indications are, others will be announced soon.

This is quite an interesting development for the Trump administration. The Obama/Kerry strategy was to isolate Israel, and pretty much blame them for the impasse in peace negotiations. Trump comes along and pretty much did the opposite. He embraced Israel and its relationship to the US. He ordered the US Embassy moved to Jerusalem, something that was promised by previous Dem and Republican administrations decades ago. He proposed a peace deal that was admittedly one-sided toward Israel, and the MSM screamed that Trump was destroying any chance for peace in the ME. But alas, .. here we are. Two Arab nations are preparing to normalize relations with Israel, with likely more to follow. Meanwhile, the champions of the MSM, .. the "palestinians" and Hamas, .. are left to pout on the sidelines, revealing that THEY are the true roadblocks to peace, not Israel.

I have absolutely no doubt that the 'palestinians' and Hamas are hoping against hope that Harris/Biden win the election so that they can get back to isolating Israel.

[Jeff Buchanan]

A Biden/Harris win will not reverse what's going on in the ME. That's mainly because, I think the Trumps are along for the ride. But, credit where credit is due. I'm not sure if Don, Jr. and Kushner are really behind these "peace" moves by members of the Arab league. Trumpians will spin it that way and include PDJT in the mix - the Nobel Peace Prize and all that. What's going on is a confluence of common interests among Arab nations that detest Iran and have ever since the Shah got the boot and the fundamentalist rag heads took over - a kind of Islamic fundamentalism that just doesn't sit well with the Gulf States and SA, even though their brand, while different, isn't much better.

Still, that's what good diplomacy is all about ,,,,, leveraging happenstance. What isn't clear is where Putin and Xi stand in all of this. Their interests are not at all in common with those of the US and now the aligning Arab world v. Iran when it comes to Israel. I'll have to read up on it. Right now, I don't know and I'm not sure anyone knowledgeable in ME affairs is writing about that. You're right though with regard to the "angry" elements among the Palestinian "diaspora" getting marginalized in all of this. Hezbollah has really been unable to deliver in any of the areas where they have established themselves and, generally, the folks just want jobs, school for their kids and an end to all the radicalism and fist pumping bull-shit. What went down in Lebanon with the port explosion hurt the radical elements who had gained the upper hand in Lebanese parliament. I'm not convinced that whole thing wasn't staged to do just that. The timing of the "peace" moves is a bit too coincidental for it not to have been.

[lineygoblue]

What's going on is a confluence of common interests among Arab nations that detest Iran and have ever since the Shah got the boot and the fundamentalist rag heads took over - a kind of Islamic fundamentalism that just doesn't sit well with the Gulf States and SA, even though their brand, while different, isn't much better.

And if Obama/Kerry were as smart as they think they are, they would have played this angle for a peace agreement, instead of hating on Netanyahu and attempting to isolate Israel in the process. Problem is, Obama sympathizes with the "palestinians" and staked out a course to get them their 'homeland', even if it meant compromising Israel's security. We already see what a 'palestinian homeland' looks like with what's happening in Gaza, and to a lesser degree in Lebanon. The so-called 'palestinians' are not ready to live in peace with Israel yet.

But, many of their Arab neighbors and brothers are.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Sure, but my post contested your view that a Biden/Harris win will reverse what is underway in the ME. While symbolic in nature Biden has already said when he was asked about it that he won't move the US Embassy back to Tel-Aviv. Harris has the support of most Jewish groups (except the Zionists) for her pro-Israel record so, I just don't see attempts to alter the flow of events that are unfolding among Arab League members by a Biden/Harris win in November.

I do, however, see a Biden/Harris win altering the US position on the Iran Nuclear deal. The obstacle to that might be Congressional pressure to not go back to the bargaining table with the Mullahs when radical elements within Iran have been considerably weakened by the Trump administration's approach. Israeli objections to some of the terms of the original deal are going to have more weight going forward. We might see some rapprochement by the Biden administration with the EU leadership vis-a-vis the Iran Nuclear deal but right now, the US is playing a solid hand in containing Iran's influence in the ME.

[iam416]

The larger obstacle, IMO, is political. Obama was able to mostly "sneak" that deal through. The Media helped him out and championed it, but by and large no one was really paying THAT much attention. Don't get me wrong -- the Rs were up in arms and screaming, but it just didn't have any purchase with voters. No one was really taking that much notice.

Now, however, any deal with Iran will receive a ton of R scrutiny. And voters, I think, naturally tend to distrusting Iran. The politics of it are way different than when Obama got it through. At least IMO.

[Dr. Strangelove]

A Biden/Harris win will not reverse what's going on in the ME. That's mainly because, I think the Trumps are along for the ride. But, credit where credit is due. I'm not sure if Don, Jr. and Kushner are really behind these "peace" moves by members of the Arab league. Trumpians will spin it that way and include PDJT in the mix - the Nobel Peace Prize and all that. What's going on is a confluence of common interests among Arab nations that detest Iran and have ever since the Shah got the boot and the fundamentalist rag heads took over - a kind of Islamic fundamentalism that just doesn't sit well with the Gulf States and SA, even though their brand, while different, isn't much better.

Still, that's what good diplomacy is all about ,,,,, leveraging happenstance. What isn't clear is where Putin and Xi stand in all of this. Their interests are not at all in common with those of the US and now the aligning Arab world v. Iran when it comes to Israel. I'll have to read up on it. Right now, I don't know and I'm not sure anyone knowledgeable in ME affairs is writing about that. You're right though with regard to the "angry" elements among the Palestinian "diaspora" getting marginalized in all of this. Hezbollah has really been unable to deliver in any of the areas where they have established themselves and, generally, the folks just want jobs, school for their kids and an end to all the radicalism and fist pumping bull-shit. What went down in Lebanon with the port explosion hurt the radical elements who had gained the upper hand in Lebanese parliament. I'm not convinced that whole thing wasn't staged to do just that. The timing of the "peace" moves is a bit too coincidental for it not to have been.

More than leveraging happenstance took place in the deal with UAE. The Emiratis got a huge arms deal from the US, a deal which Israel was kept in the dark about either completely or partly. I suspect Bahrain is getting something for this formalization too. This is how transactional foreign policy works and where it has advantages.

[lineygoblue]

Most of the nations on the Arab peninsula have been getting US arms for decades. Even under Obama. The Arabs crave US technology in military arms, which is still better than anything China or Russia can offer them. And the loose cannons running Iran have done nothing to make the Arab nations feel anything close to secure. Countries like Bahrain and UAE have grown tired of the 'palestinians' griping and they see more advantages in being peaceful with Israel, than backing the palestinian pipe dream of wiping out Israel.

And if buying peace from UAE and Bahrain was as easy as an arms deal, why didn't Obama/Kerry try it years ago? Its no secret that Obama hated Netanyahu, and Kerry didn't like him much either. Their strategy was to threaten to isolate Israel to force Netanyahu to cave to palestinian demands. They horribly underestimated the resolve of Bibi. He may have his faults, but he's a tough nut to crack when it comes to Israel's security.

There's really nothing wrong with giving Trump a bit of credit for this.

[Da Geezer]

The larger obstacle, IMO, is political. Obama was able to mostly "sneak" that deal through. The Media helped him out and championed it, but by and large no one was really paying THAT much attention. Don't get me wrong -- the Rs were up in arms and screaming, but it just didn't have any purchase with voters. No one was really taking that much notice.

Now, however, any deal with Iran will receive a ton of R scrutiny. And voters, I think, naturally tend to distrusting Iran. The politics of it are way different than when Obama got it through. At least IMO.

Agreed. My recollection is that Obama could not get Senate approval of the Iran deal and that the deal does not have the weight of a "treaty". It did guaranty Iran had a nuclear weapon by 2024.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Most of the nations on the Arab peninsula have been getting US arms for decades. Even under Obama. The Arabs crave US technology in military arms, which is still better than anything China or Russia can offer them. And the loose cannons running Iran have done nothing to make the Arab nations feel anything close to secure. Countries like Bahrain and UAE have grown tired of the 'palestinians' griping and they see more advantages in being peaceful with Israel, than backing the palestinian pipe dream of wiping out Israel.

And if buying peace from UAE and Bahrain was as easy as an arms deal, why didn't Obama/Kerry try it years ago? Its no secret that Obama hated Netanyahu, and Kerry didn't like him much either. Their strategy was to threaten to isolate Israel to force Netanyahu to cave to palestinian demands. They horribly underestimated the resolve of Bibi. He may have his faults, but he's a tough nut to crack when it comes to Israel's security.

There's really nothing wrong with giving Trump a bit of credit for this.

The UAE is reportedly getting the most advanced aircraft we currently give to Israel, which they had NOT been given before. Which is why there has been some grumbling in Israel about the deal, the full details of which, I repeat, were not given to them beforehand.

As a transactionalist Trump also doesn't have the constraints that Bush or Obama did in that he gives zero fucks about imposing American values on other countries.

I'll give him credit for facilitating the formalization of an on-the-ground reality though which may force the Palestinians to the table.

[lineygoblue]

As a transactionalist Trump also doesn't have the constraints that Bush or Obama did in that he gives zero fucks about imposing American values on other countries.

"Imposing American values"? What values are those? That peace is better than war? I don't really think Bahrain or UAE was all fired up about taking on Israel to begin with. If anything, these two countries see that Iran is more of a threat with their common "islamic values" than Israel is. They don't want US arms to attack Israel with. They want to defend themselves from Iran, and its proxies. If there was any grumbling in Israel about the deal, they must have quickly realized that this is more of an advantage to them, than it is a disadvantage. And, as a side benefit, it further isolates the palestinians and shows that they are the true sore thumb in the peace process. Not Israel.

Obama and Kerry considered Israel to be the obstacle to peace.

[Dr. Strangelove]

American values like not assassinating journos for one. Bush and Obama might feel compelled to not cut favors for a country like that, but not Trump. Or human rights in general. Trump has none of the neo-con belief in spreading democracy to countries and making them our allies.