Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Tom wondered in a post in another thread why some statisticians haven't come up with ways to make the data points more accurate.

There's a lot of this stuff out there. I've seen it, read it, and found it too obscure to post. The reason for it is that as scientists tend to do, their study and analysis will be laid out to serve some unique interest or to address a unique question. For example, what is the CFR when it is age, race and gender stratified. This leads to a stunningly long and complex analysis designed to give the study power. There are the outcomes and these are convoluted and discussed in a 5 paragraph discussion..... and you think my stuff is too long. You have no idea.

The important thing to understand is that I don't think there is one precise answer to the question how many people die from COVID? It depends. In a general sense, not as many as the press would have us believe and deaths are concentrated in a very narrow age range. You would think this would be enough to develop appropriate responses but, nope. Politics has turned the US and in some case the global response into a goat rope.

Are you saying that the media is trying to convince people that the number of deaths is higher than it really is or are you claiming that hospitals and doctors are attributing way more deaths to covid than they should be?

If it's the former, fine. We can disagree but it's reasonable.

If it's the latter, put up some evidence that that explains the big numbers of excess deaths (185k-245k) that the CDC says we've have since February.

[Jeff Buchanan]

...... the former but I'll get to the later in a moment. Yes, there are a dozen ways to depict deaths. Total deaths reported as an absolute number is the most misleading. That's what I see down here in S. FL. I ignore it as it's meaningless taken out of context. Sure, people are dying from COVID. It's lethal when it finds a perfect host to explode in. Yes, excess deaths are occuring because we have a lethal virus on top of established mortality figures caused by disease X, Y or Z. But it is counterfactual to generalize the impact or disease burden of C-19 across the entire population within which deaths are measured. That's what I object to. Relatively speaking a few will die, most will be fine .... you know the numbers as well as I do.

Hate it for people who get it, become seriously ill and for families who have to deal with a loved one's suffering or worse death. But my point in the post you took issue with is that because the disease is serious in a relatively small number of cases that should be enough evidence to avoid the draconian mitigation measures that fuck everyone's lives up who are not at risk of serious disease.

And yes, early on in the pandemic it was a point of contention that hospitals were inappropriately coding for COVID on admission for a number of reasons that had nothing to do with the important epidemiologic role of surveillance, tracking and tracing contacts of people who might have been in contact with that inappropriately admitted patient. That allegation was reported back in the March time frame by the CDC amid concerns about proper reporting and disease tracking. It was confounding the data, the CDC said. As time passed, PH officials started realizing all the data was flawed. Yet that didn't stop local officials from doing stupid things based on it to save the children or grandpa or any number of poor souls that when you talked about them and that they might die that emotted the appropriate sympathy to provide cover for stupid. At this point, arguing how many deaths there are from COVID is a waste of time.

[Dr. Strangelove]

...... the former but I'll get to the later in a moment. Yes, there are a dozen ways to depict deaths. Total deaths reported as an absolute number is the most misleading. That's what I see down here in S. FL. I ignore it as it's meaningless taken out of context. Sure, people are dying from COVID. It's lethal when it finds a perfect host to explode in. Yes, excess deaths are occuring because we have a lethal virus on top of established mortality figures caused by disease X, Y or Z. But it is counterfactual to generalize the impact or disease burden of C-19 across the entire population within which deaths are measured. That's what I object to. Relatively speaking a few will die, most will be fine .... you know the numbers as well as I do.

Hate it for people who get it, become seriously ill and for families who have to deal with a loved one's suffering or worse death. But my point in the post you took issue with is that because the disease is serious in a relatively small number of cases that should be enough evidence to avoid the draconian mitigation measures that fuck everyone's lives up who are not at risk of serious disease.

And yes, early on in the pandemic it was a point of contention that hospitals were inappropriately coding for COVID on admission for a number of reasons that had nothing to do with the important epidemiologic role of surveillance, tracking and tracing contacts of people who might have been in contact with that inappropriately admitted patient. That allegation was reported back in the March time frame by the CDC amid concerns about proper reporting and disease tracking. It was confounding the data, the CDC said. As time passed, PH officials started realizing all the data was flawed. Yet that didn't stop local officials from doing stupid things based on it to save the children or grandpa or any number of poor souls that when you talked about them and that they might die that emotted the appropriate sympathy to provide cover for stupid. At this point, arguing how many deaths there are from COVID is a waste of time.

If you want to claim that 200,000 deaths isn't enough context to give people a good sense of what their actual risk is, fine.

If you want to claim that, actually, a lot of those 200,000 people died from something else then by God start putting up some evidence. And you're dodging the question. If you don't think the 180,000 to 245.000 excess deaths were caused by covid, what WERE they caused by? We just had an abnormally high year of pneumonia deaths, at the height of summer, "coincidentally" the same year covid arrived?

[iam416]

The excess deaths are indisputable. The 6% number is only useful in terms of describing at risk populations. And what we’ve learned is that if you’re over 75 with a comorbidity or two then you should hunker down. But most reasonably healthy adults under 50 aren’t at any meaningful risk. I say that as someone who is 47.

[iam416]

The excess deaths will also reflect various increases in murders, suicides, other causes that weren’t timely addressed because hospitals shut down.

I don’t buy for a second that covid deaths are underreported by 33% (which is what the 240,000 number hints at).

[Dr. Strangelove]

The excess deaths are indisputable. The 6% number is only useful in terms of describing at risk populations. And what we’ve learned is that if you’re over 75 with a comorbidity or two then you should hunker down. But most reasonably healthy adults under 50 aren’t at any meaningful risk. I say that as someone who is 47.

I agree 100% with what you wrote and I apologize if I sound bitchy but I DO start getting pissed when people start claiming that a big chunk, or even a majority, of the state-recognized covid deaths are in fact fraudulent. Jeff isn't being clear what he's implying. Give me a plausible alternative explanation for the deaths, if there even is one.

I mean a lot of people have the co-morbidities that will cause this disease to be a lot rougher on you. Anyone between the ages of 40-65 that has diabetes, or heart disease, or asthma, that thinks just because your odds of surviving are quite high that covid will be a piece of cake, could be in for an unpleasant surprise. There's likely tens of thousands of people out there that endured weeks in the hospital and I pray they all had insurance.

[Dr. Strangelove]

The excess deaths will also reflect various increases in murders, suicides, other causes that weren’t timely addressed because hospitals shut down.

I don’t buy for a second that covid deaths are underreported by 33% (which is what the 240,000 number hints at).

Again I pretty much agree and would note that Johns Hopkins, Worldometer, and other sites keeping track of covid deaths are much closer to the low end of the CDC estimate.

[iam416]

I don’t think there’s anything to be gained from not acknowledging that covid is serious and big risk to certain people. I also don’t think you’re fighting on the high ground with that assertion. It’s a losing argument all day.

At the same time we need an accurate description of the virus. Even in terms of excess deaths—let’s say we end up around 500,000. That’s 0.15% of the population. In a policy sense (macro sense) that’s not a good number, but it’s entirely manageable.

[AlabamAlum]

Talent you’re 47? I remember you when you were a 2L. Time flies.

It’s gonna get worse when flu season gets in full swing.

As far as the deaths, there is some puffery, no doubt, but believe it or not, there is some underreporting, too. Patients who die and don’t go through an ER aren’t getting tested.

Anyway, how much puffery or missed deaths would take a case review of every death. And that will be done eventually.

[iam416]

The 2L part is true. Summer between 2L and 3L years.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Off topic but looking very likely Senator Markley will stave off the Kennedy princeling. Perhaps in humiliating fashion. And establishment Dem Richard Neal (who I will admit did some dirty tricks) is currently fending off a prog challenger.

[AlabamAlum]

DSL, draw me like one of your French girls...

[Dr. Strangelove]

this-picture-is-from-the-titanic.jpg

[AlabamAlum]

Hahahahaha

[iam416]

I liked this article on 5 reasons why the Markets are where they are: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/...nse-explained/

Of note, I agree completely with reasons #3-5: the markets price the future, not the present; zero interest rates almost everywhere have made stock investment preferrable; the markets quickly and accurately assessed the scale of covid.

The article also correctly notes DSL's favorite point about how 5 stocks are going gangbusters and the rest are meh or down.