Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Hannibal]

Why does anyone watch that shit?

[iam416]

Jim Geraghty seemed to think the first night was suprisingly....good? https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...opening-night/

He's not one to pull his punches with PDJT, that's for damn sure.

Of course, no one watched, including me. Well, except for DSL so that he can snipe the the nonsense and make sure we're all aware of how terrible the Rs are.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Whelp, this morning were in the lock down the globe narrative as COVID case #s increase in various countries. It appears that this has become the default containment strategy for the majority of nations. I'm still struggling trying to understand why...... unless the press just isn't reporting what these nations are doing precisely, e.g., is it targeted shuttering or is it a whole city or region? That's hard to flesh out from news reports and it's critically important to understanding if PH officials are weighing risk/cost/benefits calculations in recommending or directing various mitigation measures.

So many contradicting circumstances ...... some schools open, have increasing case numbers but have reasonable plans to respond (UA) some have plans and then abandon them (ND, UNC). The NFL appears to be pursuing a COA that allows fans into stadiums, the P3 are practicing and plan on playing football this fall while the P12 and BT have cancelled. Sweden and possibly NYC appear to have achieved some degree of herd immunity (NYC by mistake, Sweden on purpose) while others implemented strict lockdown measures - both achieving the same result, i.e., control of the virus' spread.

Then there are the "experts" who claim lessons learned about containing the virus for nations that did that are "clear" (this from the NYT this morning): (1) Nation's need a clear national message (2) Don't open prematurely. (3) Have a testing strategy that results in adequate screening and surveillance. That's fine but it just isn't that simple and is demonstrative of global failures to assess risks/costs and benefits of a particular pandemic strategy and COA.

I still find it incredibly frustrating that if the press is reporting accurately, and they may not be, PH officials won't contextualize increases or decreases in absolute case #s in assessing progress or failure in containment strategies. We should all know this here, because I've been hammering this point almost every day, that rising absolute case #s DO NOT reflect the impact of disease burden regionally. It is that impact that should be guiding application or easing of mitigation measures.

At some point the narrative is going to have to shift to not trying to eradicate, as in taking the risk of infection to near zero or even substantially controlling this thing but rather how do we cope with its presence in the human species without putting life as we know it on hold. I believe that is entirely possible with reasonable measures well short of locking shit down.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Jim Geraghty seemed to think the first night was suprisingly....good? https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...opening-night/

He's not one to pull his punches with PDJT, that's for damn sure.

Of course, no one watched, including me. Well, except for DSL so that he can snipe the the nonsense and make sure we're all aware of how terrible the Rs are.

Well I'd agree with him on Tim Scott and Nikki Haley. I don't think the rest was as effective as he did but then I'm not the target audience.

Trump interrupting the guy held in a Turkish prison for two years to tell him that actually, Erdogan is very good, was cringeworthy.

[iam416]

Tim Scott and Haley are both pretty good. If they performed well that would not be a surprise. South Carolina has a long history of producing top-shelf minority Republicans. Heh.

[iam416]

I think Geraghty and certainly The Talent both expect that whatever gains or headway is made PDJT will entirely undo during his speech(es) and/or through his immediate subsequent actions.

The one thing that has me a little nervous is that the the betting markets have narrowed considerably. They peaked around 61-36 -- which I still think is low -- and are now at roughly 55-43. Perhaps the betting markets are hedging against some sort of good news coming out.

I guess the bottom line is that since I have Biden at as about an 90:10 favorite I should be betting the fuck out of 55.

[Hannibal]

Trump has better than a 10% chance.

[Dr. Strangelove]

One important thing to keep an eye on going forward are the number of undecideds. If Biden is routinely at 49-50% in polls, that'll be very good for him even if his lead is only 50-46. Being up 50-46 is way better than being up 45-41 Hillary-style. All evidence suggests that people are a lot more solid on their preference this time around and like I've said before, people who don't like either guy will tend to vote for the challenger. In this case almost 2/3 of voters who dislike both prefer Biden.

If the number of not sure/undecided starts increasing in these polls after being so low for so long that's when I'll worry that Biden's lead is getting very shaky.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Exxon has been removed as a Dow component. They had been part of the index in some shape or form since 1928

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/25/exxon-mobil-replaced-by-a-software-stock-after-92-years-in-the-dow-is-a-sign-of-the-times.html

[lineygoblue]

I just had a short but interesting visit with my cardiologist this morning. I'm fine, BTW. He ran a series of tests on me a couple months back, and he's pleased with the results.

But he mentioned that my BP was 'a bit up' this morning, and I just made a quick remark that "Well with all this covid scare going on, I've been a bit on edge". His response was very interesting. He said, "Well, this is all going to be over with in 6 months anyway".

I got to thinking about that on the ride home. Here is a cardiologist, with my medical history sitting right in front of him, with the dreaded 'additional risk factors', and he says to me that this is going to be over with in 6 months. IF he was concerned about me and my "additional risk factors", wouldn't he be cautioning me to take as many preventative measures as possible? Wouldn't he be telling me to keep 'social distancing', and "mask up"? But no. He didn't say any of that. Just simply, "Its going to be over in 6 months". This guy isn't some quack. He's one of the most prominent cardiologists in Mid-Michigan. He literally has hundreds of patients.

I just thought that was an interesting comment by a medical professional. I hope he's right.

[Tom W]

There's are differences between "medical professionals" and "scientists". For starters, one of them needs to focus primarily on selling their ideas. The other is primarily focused on keeping people healthy.

[foxhopper]

He is obviously one of the upper elite illuminati that knows what's really going on. Not the endless BS they are cramming down us peasants throats.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I suspect there is broader herd immunity in Michigan than we know about, especially in metro Detroit. If you take Michigan's case totals versus deaths then Michigan has one of if not the highest fatality rates in the country (over 6%). That's higher than New York. I don't think that's accurate and there probably were a lot more cases back in March/April that went undetected for lack of testing.

[CGVT]

That was not a medical opinion. It was a political opinion. He is basing it on the Trumpster's belief that it will all magically disappear after the election/inauguration.

[lineygoblue]

That was not a medical opinion. It was a political opinion. He is basing it on the Trumpster's belief that it will all magically disappear after the election/inauguration.

Sorry, CG. You don't know my doctor the way I do. He does not qualify as a "trumpster" in any way at all. He has offices in 3 cities, and works in the Sparrow health organization as one of their top cardiologists. He doesn't go about making wild political statements to his patients.

Now ... my BARBER on the other hand ... HE would qualify as a "trumpster"....