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My point is that if you think the numbers are being faked, you're not accusing reporters of faking them. You're actually making an accusation against tens of thousands of doctors around the country.
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Right. Here's Ohio's 7 day average of daily deaths versus states seeing a surge of cases at present. I've tried keeping track using official data from states.Originally posted by iam416 View Post
Texas: 154
Florida: 124
California: 106
Arizona: 77
South Carolina: 47
Georgia: 46
Louisiana: 31
Alabama: 24
North Carolina: 21
Mississippi: 20
Ohio: 19Comment
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My point sir, is that the Detroit Free Press has a long history of reporting the news the way they want us to believe it. If I'm making any accusation at all, its against them and not "against tens of thousands of doctors around the country". My comments are limited to what is reported by the Freep in Michigan, and the 1000 deaths that will go on TODAY'S tally as 'happening today" due to the delay in health departments reporting their data. I'm sure that doctors all over the country want an end to Covid as much as the rest of us do.
I think that should sufficiently explain the point I was making, .. unless you are wishing to remain deliberately obtuse, of course."in order to lead America you must love America"Comment
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Maybe I've become remarkably calloused, but those numbes don't scare me. The high end.Right. Here's Ohio's 7 day average of daily deaths versus states seeing a surge of cases at present. I've tried keeping track using official data from states.
Texas: 154
Florida: 124
California: 106
Arizona: 77
South Carolina: 47
Georgia: 46
Louisiana: 31
Alabama: 24
North Carolina: 21
Mississippi: 20
Ohio: 19Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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No they're not. But at the very least, it's perfectly legitimate, and responsible of them to ask for verification of the numbers- Especially considering that there's Federal money tied to combating the virus- and there's a golden opportunity to weaponize it. Both have been capitalized on.Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove View Post
It's also time to put this "liberal hoax" nonsense to rest. A pure "hoax" is a strong accusation and only the thickest tinfoil hatters ever believed that. But it's become pretty clear that we aren't getting the full story for reasons that are beyond the excuse of uncertainty.Comment
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The white guys are silently praying, "Dear Lord, may we also be as oppressed as this poor black man" ..."in order to lead America you must love America"Comment
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I mean, those numbers are bad. But they aren't "shut everything down till it's over" bad.
The first covid death was reported on Leap Day (of all days). There's a difference of 148 days between then and today. So we're averaging very close to 1,000 deaths a day whichever site you track by. Depending on when the current surge peters out and if there's another in mid-Autumn, 200,000 total deaths by the end of the year seems very realistic. If there's a third surge in flu season maybe 250k or 300k on the very high end. So roughly 4-6 times worse than an ordinary flu season I believe.
On the plus side I have seen theories that the constant mask-wearing and changes in behavior could make this upcoming flu season lighter than normal.Comment
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...or hospital administrators looking for money...Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove View PostShut the fuck up Donny!Comment
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EFZ. Our resident medical expert can weigh in, but there’s “facts” and “statistics”- with a certain amount of translation and interpretation between them.Originally posted by THE_WIZARD_ View Post
if the numbers are in fact correct, then so be it. But considering that journalists are still obsessed about Trump’s tax returns, Russian interference and the Confederacy, you would sort of think that they would at least QUESTION these statistics.Comment
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I think there are biases that get injected into the absolute numbers and those biases probably tended to skew those numbers a lot more early in the game than they are now. There are all kinds of statistical biases - some persist, some wane over time. Like I said up thread, trends are a more accurate reflection in any quantitative measure than the absolute number itself. That's why I like R(t) as a reflection of a state's containment efforts. Case numbers are practically useless as a standalone measure of containment at a macro level - that is partly because of the impact of geometric progression that, I would say, increases the public perception of disease burden when, in fact, 80% -90% of the new cases present no disease burden at all.
This is where context is all important. If you want to understand the prevalence of the virus in a selected locale, you can look at positivity and even better, use the inverse of that value to get the number of tests it takes to find one positive case. The higher the number of tests to fine one positive, the lower the disease prevalence. If you want to understand disease burden in a particular locale look at hospitalizations and case or infection fatality rates.
My take in FL is that officials mostly seem to be looking at contextualized data to make decisions on mitigation measures .....mostly but not always. Here's an example at the micro level: A week ago, with case numbers rising in Broward Co., officials decided to require masks be worn while exercising. Previous masking orders only required you mask while moving about in a gym. Ever tried to indoor cycle with a mask? No? Well, unless you don't want to get a real work-out, it's impossible and, IMO, unhealthful (CO2 builds up in your lungs).
I actually wrote the mayor's office and inquired upon what basis the decision to require masking while exercising was made. Had gyms been identified as COVID hot spots? Nope. I was told there were two mayors in the county that just thought gyms were potential hot spots without any evidence to support that they actually were. Deference was given to their view and IMO, an inappropriate view. A new EO was issued - masks required while exercising.
There's more. Can you wear a face shield (allows you to inhale and exhale without this issues of a mask) instead of masking while exercising? I found an article that looked at some evidence and found that, yes, face shields provide adequate protection for their intended purpose - reducing the likelihood of airborne droplets inside and outside 2m. LA Fitness has policy that you can't replace a mask with a face shield. Based on what? Nothing. I don't cycle there anymore and use another studio where common sense has prevailed - so far face shields are fine along with 10 feet of separation between bikes.
Anyway, you can just turn off the news when outlets start hyperventilating about rising case numbers. Most states have pretty good COVID dashboards where you can find the data you need to judge for yourself what the disease burden and prevalence is in your state. If you can't find a state dashboard or it isn't providing context data, there are several good data reporting sites to look at.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.Comment
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Current data demonstrate that while the US leads the world in the latest surge in new case numbers (caveat as above), as you might predict and as in April, "the curve is flattening."
COVID CASES.PNG
So this is good, better than two weeks ago, right? Well, yes, I guess so. But was there a lot to worry about when the new case numbers were being frantically reported last week? Not really as CFR was stable or declining. Hospitalizations were declining. Numbers of tests to find one positive were rising. Also, keep in mind, while there was some back-peddling on reopening, state and local officials didn't go to lock-downs like some were calling for. That's progress.
I think you can responsibly draw the conclusion from all the data combined that human behaviors are changing and that is affecting the spread of the virus in positive ways. Certainly, the news reports kids doing crazy shit at bars and house parties but, frankly, these reports are isolated and I can say that because polls suggest that compliance with all mitigation measures approach 80% levels. Masking and distancing requirements are, in general, adhered to by most Americans. So, yeah, that's reducing virus spread.
I still hold that is a losing battle in the US. Proponents of zero spread and zero risks are misguided. That's not going to happen. But, you can strive to drive R(t) below 1 and we can manage, maybe not control as in eradicate, the virus effectively and probably better than any nation. This w/o draconian shuttering or locking down to restrict mobility. It's a bridge to vaccines that allow for the economy to stabilize until such time as a degree of control of the virus is achieved with a combination of reasonable mitigation measures, gradually relaxed, and one of a dozen or so vaccines that will come to market sooner rather than later.
COVID RT.PNGMission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.Comment
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Several reports that National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien has tested positive for the virus. He recently came back from Europe and visiting counterparts in major European allies. In a normal White House, O'Brien is someone who would be in daily contact with the President, but I dunno how frequently he and Trump see each other.Comment
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Herman Cain was admitted to a hospital with covid over 3 weeks ago. He's still there by all accounts. Hasn't been an update in over a week. He has staffers running his Twitter account so don't take the activity there as a sign all's well.
Wilbur Ross was also admitted to a hospital about 10 days ago for "minor non-covid issues". The day after he was admitted his office said he'd be released soon. Well, it's been 10 days and no word.
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This would almost be a "Wrestlemania event" type of PPV. Iran's "navy" attempting to attack a US carrier.
Do those nimrods actually believe that their kayaks and canoes can waltz up to a US carrier, and have their way with it? Carriers may look big and clumsy, and they may appear to be difficult to maneuver, but our carriers are armed with some of the best defensive weaponry known to man. They're not just going to sit there and get shot at. And oh yes, .. the fighter jets. They could wipe out Iran's economy in about 30 minutes. Not to mention what US subs would do if a carrier group was attacked.
Iran needs to stop worrying about what the US is doing in the gulf, and start taking care of the hundreds of thousands of its citizens who have Covid.
"in order to lead America you must love America"Comment
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