Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, that was a lot of COVID discussion there. My 2 cents:

There is a continuum of disease burden secondary to C-19 from none to death. The facts support that the disease burden, based on current data, is at the low end of that spectrum. Hanni's chart demonstrates that perceptions of C-19's disease burden is on the high end. Why is that? Two things: (1) a hysterical press that bends the data to support a narrative - some of this is political and purposefully anti-R and anti-Trump. (2) A failure on the part of most leaders at the federal state and local levels to counter the hysterical press narrative. I'd call FL's governor, Ron Desantis, a notable exception who ignores the hysteria, focus on steps state and local officials are taking to manage the rising case numbers and reporting results.

Recently, I've heard several medical authorities express this view when asked "what's the endpoint?" ........ that the virus is here to stay, is probably seasonal and we need to be focusing on how to manage it while returning to a sustainable level of economic and social activity. I've been pushing this line for about two weeks. If it catches on, it's a paradigm shift that is badly needed.

[Jeff Buchanan]

........ with respect to learning how to manage SARS-CoV-2 and C-19, there is a shit ton of good news on the science front that doesn't get reported as a lead story in the mainstream media. It's there, mostly in the scientific literature and print media, but rarely gets the headlines. I've reported it here, Jon provided a Reuters link to an exhaustive list of all therapies in the pipeline, including vaccines. No more needs to be said. We'll be fine despite what the media wants us to believe.

Beyond pharmaceutical interventions, while these are important, they shouldn't be the focus or the final solution. There needs to be an active public service campaign to mask, distance and avoid large gatherings where the purpose of them is partying and alcohol consumption. Local officials and law enforcement should focus on education and dispersal not citing. Protect and serve.

This is not to say that large outdoor gatherings can't be done safely or that schools can't re-open or that responsible people can't socialize in clubs or restaurants and exercise in gyms. I've participated in all of these things in FL, inside gyms, clubs and restaurants where owners strictly adhere to and enforce applicable COVID code. I've done all of this over 2 months with reasonable people who mask and distance. I'd estimate I've come in contact with hundreds of potentially infected persons over that time period - all of us behaving responsibly. Over that time I am unaware of anyone who has become infected.

IOW, sensible shit works. Hysteria is counterproductive.

[iam416]

Buchanan NAILS it!

Strangelove and JD forced to tuck tail and retreat!

[Hannibal]

Hysteria is, indeed, counterproductive. Imagine if our approach to managing this virus had focused exclusively, from the beginning, on protecting the most vulnerable. With six trillion dollars we could have bought every 75+ year old man and woman a private residence with security check points to get in and out instead of just shutting down everything indiscriminately in a great big panic.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I may not be completely informed ....... that's because I am now routinely deleting news feed articles pertaing to COVID that the lead line has these words in them, "surge, spike, dire, highest" you get the point. My attitude has improved greatly.

[iam416]

You're barely informed, but that still leaves you room to spare in dealing with Strangelove and the Hysterics.

[Ghengis Jon]

Republican governor Larry Hogan (Maryland) opines on covid response in Trump's favorite newspaper.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...s/?arc404=true

[Jeff Buchanan]

I don't think there is any question that the response to the pandemic in the US at the federal level is flawed. But this Governor's approach is wrongly targeted. Identify the problems - and they are myriad - propose solutions and fix them.

There are two glaring problems made obvious in dealing with the US pandemic: One of the most glaring is an antiquated system for reporting critical data necessary to manage a national pandemic response - and there should have been one. There's no short term solution because we're too far down the road of a decentralized approach which was defensible at the outset of the pandemic but has turned out to create a number of unintended consequences and been plagued with technology shortfalls .

Design a US national PH pandemic reporting system using blueprints from countries that have had them since SARS and start implementing it.

The other glaring problem is a national logistics platform that allows for federal acquisition of every anticipated pandemic supply - and there are some basics that are eminently identifiable in advance, procured and stockpiled - followed by on-call, systematic distribution to the states and from the states to municipalities. FEMA is a good place to start. It needs to be tuned to respond to pandemics.

Guarantee we'll need both in the future. If we can get something on line now, that's a bonus.

That's two problems listed and solutions provided and that just for starters.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Ten days ago the 7-day rolling average of new deaths in Florida was 47. Today it's up to about 95 because for 3 days straight the deaths have topped 100. As long as you can keep the elderly and most vulnerable safe, the deaths shouldn't soar to the numbers seen in April. I have skepticism that'll be easy if the spread of the disease is all over the place. There has been a small increase in the median age of new Florida cases since the start of the month. Around July 1 the median age was about 35-36. Today it's 40-41.

[Ghengis Jon]

Trump's colleagues are targeting covid research.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53429506

[iam416]

The increases age in Florida is a concern. The 7-day average is still pretty manageable. NY peaked at 990, I think. Hopefully Florida keeps it under 200.

[lineygoblue]

Hillsdale College will hold commencement exercises on Saturday. So far they are the only college in Michigan to hold in person graduation ceremonies.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/07/16/hillsdale-college-graduation-weekend-covid-19/5450015002/

In the article, Attorney General Dana Nessel said she would expect the Hillsdale County Sheriff to enforce the governor's directive which outlaws gatherings of over 100 people in that part of the state. The sheriff responded that he will not send deputies to ticket participants in the event because they have too much to do now, and he can't spare the manpower.

So ... Commencement ceremonies = dangerous
BLM & Antifa rallies and protests = safe.

Got that, everybody?

[Dr. Strangelove]

I'm not surprised to see Hillsdale doing that. It's Hillsdale. Telling the government to fuck off is what they do.

The risk is probably pretty low for an outdoor ceremony if most are wearing masks and not crowded together. Although, this being a Hillsdale crowd, a lot of the people are probably anti-mask too

In general I support the cops not turning out for every call they get concerning someone not wearing a mask in public. In a big city that'd be madness. For a big, pre-announced event like this though, you'd think they could manage to send one deputy by and just make sure nothing egregious was going on. The Sheriff says they're too busy out there solving real crimes. Yeah sure, bud. I've been to Hillsdale. Busy making sure health standards are being followed at the Dunkin Donuts for the 3rd time today, most likely.

[Dr. Strangelove]

A growing number of Republicans are worried and angry that Trump is going to depress their turnout by constantly declaring mail-in ballots fraudulent. I've seen articles previously that Wisconsin Republicans are annoyed by this stance because they had earlier been encouraging mail-in voting in rural parts of the states. R's on the ground there thought they could work it to their advantage until Trump blew up their efforts.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/politics/republican-reaction-trump-mail-in-voting/index.html

[Hannibal]

Speaking of Trump, I just saw my first ad today attacking Biden for the Defund the Police, BLM riot stuff. It's obviously where Biden would be the most vulnerable. We'll see if it helps at all.