Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove
View Post
First, I will acknowledge that the evidence, in general, supports the idea that wearing a mask reduces the spread of SARS-CoV-2. My central points is what if the majority of folks who are getting infected don't experience significant symptoms or disease burden? Do we shutter businesses if that is the case or do we let them operate knowing that serious public health consequences are doubtful? If disease burden with C-19 is low it makes no sense to shut down economies to prevent it's spread - that is a common refrain coming from informed quarters and not from the crazies.
I think there are some legs to the idea that targeted masking, as it was described to me by this advocate of it, is more appropriate than the nuclear option of shuttering business, beaches and recreational facilities to allegedly reduce the spread of the virus. It looks good and is politically correct, fits the narrative and so forth. One has to ask, though, is the cost of doing that off-set by a benefit in reduced individual disease burden, burdens on hospital capacity reduced deaths and serious illness. I don't think we know the answer to that in absolute terms so, why do it if we don't? My gut tells me some people know it's not but the politically correct thing to do is mask and shutter.
There is an important distinction here involving two separate questions. Are masks effective or not in stopping the spread of SARS-CoV-2? The evidence seems to support that they are. It's not the slam dunk people think it is and that I'm learning as I go over the evidence. Lots of variables - type, fit, proper wear, etc. One can protect others, if asymptomatic and unknowingly infected, by wearing a basic, mouth/nose covering. But on the receiving end, only N95 or equivalent masks, properly worn will prevent acquisition of the virus. You've seen how a single, unmasked person with a virus like influenza is easily spread to others who are also unmasked in a restaurant. This spread is reduced if all parties are wearing N95 masks ..... but they aren't and it is not logistically possible to achieve that endpoint.
The separate but loosely related question, given the questionable efficacy of masking, are masks and shuttering necessary mitigation measures to control viral spread and is the cost of doing that worth it? That is unknown at this point but assumptions are rampant that these measures are necessary? I'm listening to the case that it's stupid to mask the young, uninfected and shutter businesses. That is because doing so is mostly unknown and is based on flimsy evidence of it's efficacy considering cost/benefits.
Comment