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Here's your morning summary:
Economic statisticians are coming to grips with the impact of C-19 on the US and global economy - no one is spared and no one is going to come out of this without significant long term economic and social damage. Global stock markets are reacting. Governments will step up but there will be limits to their ability to sustain fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Will this pose a risk of social unrest and violence? On the global scene, yes with countries flexing their muscles in what are known as "opportunistic acts." Notably, in April, the Chinese sailed their flag-ship aircraft carrier through the Miyako Strait between Taiwan and Japan, an “opportunistic” act “almost calculated to contrast with the plight of the stricken Roosevelt.
I don't think there is any doubt that the C-19 pandemic here in the US has contributed to the violence of protests - more "opportunistic acts" - by various shapes and colors of domestic terror groups. I would not doubt that foreign powers are involved, if only marginally through social media, stirring up doubt, confusion and anti-government, law enforcement sentiment.
Dangerous times.
On COVID, I've had a hard time reconciling both the C-19 messaging coming from officials at the federal, state and local levels with things I hear, see or read. You hear reports ranging from the dire consequences meme to we're fine. I'm leaning to the we're fine but it's getting hard to both buy and sell that take. I remain optimistic but less so. Why? The fucking idiot crowd. Here's my take on C-19:
Economic statisticians are coming to grips with the impact of C-19 on the US and global economy - no one is spared and no one is going to come out of this without significant long term economic and social damage. Global stock markets are reacting. Governments will step up but there will be limits to their ability to sustain fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Will this pose a risk of social unrest and violence? On the global scene, yes with countries flexing their muscles in what are known as "opportunistic acts." Notably, in April, the Chinese sailed their flag-ship aircraft carrier through the Miyako Strait between Taiwan and Japan, an “opportunistic” act “almost calculated to contrast with the plight of the stricken Roosevelt.
I don't think there is any doubt that the C-19 pandemic here in the US has contributed to the violence of protests - more "opportunistic acts" - by various shapes and colors of domestic terror groups. I would not doubt that foreign powers are involved, if only marginally through social media, stirring up doubt, confusion and anti-government, law enforcement sentiment.
Dangerous times.
On COVID, I've had a hard time reconciling both the C-19 messaging coming from officials at the federal, state and local levels with things I hear, see or read. You hear reports ranging from the dire consequences meme to we're fine. I'm leaning to the we're fine but it's getting hard to both buy and sell that take. I remain optimistic but less so. Why? The fucking idiot crowd. Here's my take on C-19:
- There's community spread in the US after months of mitigating most of it. Compared to Europe and Asia, states in the US that are seeing increasing new case #s and accelerating GR - and I'm finding these mostly reported in the important context I've spoken of - we're not doing well.
- I attribute this to increasing social contact and lack of compliance with masking and distancing in affected states. Reporters have written some solid stuff on this in S. FL. Won't go into in detail but the idiot factor when it comes to acting responsibly when out in public is high.
- While I hear the dire consequences stuff with hospital capacity, unless hospital administrators are flat out lying - and I don't think they are - increased case #s and admissions are being handled. I've not heard one of them or any MD say when asked, "we're overwhelmed" ...... far from it. Comments are more likely to indicate we are better prepared and equipped for this.
- Any time Fauci speaks publicly, even though he is very measured and balanced, journalists lean on every word reading way more bad connotations into what he says than I am absolutely positive he intends.
- You know this: the picture of the newly infected seeking care after a + RT-PCR swab for C-19 or flu like symptoms in the ED is "under 40, overweight and with diabetes." Right from the mouth of a Houston ED Doc.
- Testing is way up nationally and that'good but so are percent +s. After a weekend of partying and disregard for masking and distancing, young people are hitting the test sites in droves, showing up +, don't develop serious symptoms, don't seek care and, even though they are told to quarantine, probably won't. That's for a lot of reasons, one of them being tracking and enforcement in the US ....... not happening like it is elsewhere where the flare-ups on reopening are milder.
- The unanswered question: Will this wave of new cases, primarily among young people with about the same % of serious illness as usual (around 10% depending on how this is reported and counted), increase deaths (now < 5%) and the need for critical care. That's defined as specialized care of patients whose conditions are life-threatening and who require comprehensive care and constant monitoring, usually in intensive care units. Also known as intensive care.
- I'd like to see the PH statisticians start to publish this kind of information. I think it's out there and state and local policy makers have it. The verdict is things are not terrible. That explains why, in the face of the dire consequences meme from the press, mixed messaging and the BS on social media, aside from slowing of reopening and most locals now mandating masks in indoor public spaces, nobody is talking about shuttering.
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