Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Tom W]

People are just looking for things, anything, to be offended by right now. The latest is the soon to be formerly named "Eskimo Pies"- It's so much easier to find social justification by inventing ways to bully corporations than it is to actually do something positive.

Here's your psychological bill for the first three months of lockdown.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Jeff Buchanan]

Jeff- I don't really know where the balance needs to be but I think it's probably somewhere where there is going to be more economic pain than people want to accept. Everything suggests it is a younger cohort that's spreading the disease now and that'll mean a lot less deaths, but obviously "not dying" can still include a lengthy hospital or even ICU stay, racking up big healthcare bills. We all want certain restaurants and bars to survive but there might need to be a point where simply wearing a mask isn't enough and you need to encourage people to eat out less and strongly recommend against bars altogether. That'll depend on locality but there's some places (Baton Rouge, Austin, maybe Phoenix) where they may be hitting that point.

I'm not sure increasing infections equates to increasing hospital admissions that "rack up big health care bills."

I'm positive, though, that not many people who get infected get seriously ill - like I think you are implying here.

Assuming that there is a uniform disease presentation between an asymptomatic C-19 patient and one that dies is incorrect. We're still holding at global figures that show only 5% of C-19 infections result in death and only 0.0046% are hospitalized

S. FL's stats through 6/20 are up. Here they are (includes Palm Beach, Broward and Miami Dade COs):

From 5/18 to 6/20 ED visits for ILI or C-19 symptoms rose from 590 - 1210. I'd expect that with the GR of infections increasing like it is in FL.

In the same period admissions dropped from 7% to 6%. You'd expect that figure to rise. It fell!

My conclusion is that DSL's hypothesis: increases in both new C-19 case numbers and ED visits for symptoms suggestive of C-19 increase hospital admissions and therefore will produce increases in health care costs, is incorrect.

Other facts:

Ages 15-54 now account for 66% of all C-19 cases in FL but only 30% of hospital admissions.

Ages 55 - 85 now account for only 34% of all C-19 cases in FL with a whopping 70% of admissions.

The Tri-County region of S. Fl accounts for 48% (45.6K) of all C-19 cases in FL (95K). The other 64 counties account for 52% (49.4K) of them. On a per county basis the S. FL COs account for 15.2K each while the other Fl COs account for 771 each. In other words the disease burden in S. FL is 20X greater than the rest of FL. The point of this math exercise is to make it reasonable to conclude that the C-19 experience in S. FL is significantly different than it is in the rest of the state. It also tells you that the focus of mitigation efforts should be in S. FL..... and, no surprise, they are.

Bar, beach and restaurant closings in S. FL? Not yet. Let's see how cuing masking and social distancing along with a bit of enforcement works for two weeks.

You can continue reopening in the rest of the state pretty much on schedule with minor variations to that schedule as warranted by county/municipal data.

That's straight cost/benefit. Are extensive hospital costs worse than "economic pain"? I mean, that's as direct an analysis as you can get.

I think I just demonstrated that C-19 treatment related hospital costs are probably dropping and increases in "economic pain" (mitigation and containment with a return to sheltering and shuttering) given increased case #s are unjustified.

[lineygoblue]

So much for the idea that warm or hot weather kills the virus. The new cases are in the warmer areas of the country right now.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Yeah that notion hasn't held up - at least the virus not thriving in typical summer temps. However, in vitro, it has a definite optimum temperature range for multiplying and that is something like 50-80 degrees F. It also likea humidity. De-humidified/condtioned air provides an inhospital growing environment, again, in vitro.

What does hold up is that as people move outdoors - and assuming they distance - infection rates will drop. They won't if you are outdoors, standing elbow to elbow at a packed bar and unmasked. That's what's going on in S. Fl with the kids doing the bar scene. The beach scene is the same. Even though gatherings of > 10 and then they are supposed to be family members who have had regular contact with each other, are prohibited, that's getting blown off on the regular. You see large groups of folks with coolers and beer having a good time ..... and one dude who's got it, but doesn't know it, infecting everyone around him.

Officials recognize this and the plan is to start enforcing - strongly reminding of them is a better term - individual distancing and masking rules. Teams have also been assembled in all three S. Fl counties to enforce, and by that I mean shutting restaurants down, that aren't complying with the clearly laid out opening and operating rules they are supposed to be following and, according to reports, some aren't. I'm hopeful this is going to slow down community spread. We'll see. One thing I am certain off is that in FL, there will be no turning back. I'm glad we don't have a woke governor and I've found some decent political leadership at the local level. I've also seen some bad leadership - guess their political affiliations?

[CGVT]

Well, you know, if people are careful...

[AlabamAlum]

The Teddy Roosevelt statue at the Museum of Natural History in NYC is coming down because “it explicitly depicts Black and Indigenous people as subjugated and racially inferior,” Mayor Bill de Blasio said.

Native Americans and blacks WERE subjugated. Inferior? The statue depicts nothing of the sort. Teddy Roosevelt was the first to invite a black persons to a White House supper. The NY City Council has already demanded a Thomas Jefferson statue come down. He was one of the “Dirty Dozen” of US Presidents who owned slaves.

We have lost our fucking minds and this will not end until good people from the blue states demand it stop. But so many of the moderate Democrats are too scared to be seen as anti “Movement” which is the same thing as pro racism by the morons tearing shit down.

[Ghengis Jon]

I think Tom hit it up calling this the psychological bill we are paying. Its a witching hour of everything bad. Unemployment, riots, pandemic, quarantine, moronic president, whipsaw stock market, and yellow journalism. With social media taking an outsized place in whipping the intellectually challenged into a lawless frenzy.

Yeah, there are a lot of Dems being fearful of being labeled anti-Movement (racist). Just like a lot of Repubs being fearful of being labeled anti-Trump. Republicans utterly failed America by not standing up to the threat they installed in the White House. Democrats are uttering failing America not reigning in the idiocy committed in the name of 'progress'.

Every house that needs renovation does not need to be burned to the ground first.

[AlabamAlum]

I get hating Trump. I really do. Hell, I hate his childish temperament and his lies. He is the least presidential president we’ve had since Andy Jackson. Jackson just didn’t have Twitter.

But this transcends Trump. Make no mistake, hatred for him stoked the flames. But trying to remove every statue of every leader who didn’t view blacks and Indians as fully equal to whites will strike just about all history before 1960, maybe even later - and arguably will erase ALL history. And removing every statue that fails to depict blacks and Indians in 1900 and before as fully equal and on the same footing as whites diminishes the struggle and successes of blacks, indians, and all other subjugated peoples.

I am Scottish. The wonderful documentary “Braveheart” faithfully and accurately shows the subjugation and triumph of the Scots. Without depicting the subjugation meted by Longshanks, there is no triumph, no success, that allowed the Scots to save mankind countless times since.

[iam416]

Erasing history is the goal. It's a feature, not a bug. The United States has to be seen as inherently evil in order to justify its complete and total remaking. The socialists will use whatever lever they have to force this issue -- green new deal, race, whatever.

That's the goal. And you're right -- sensible Ds won't stand up to it. Even on this thread, Jon is the only one who says this is nonsense (though, he's probably more libertarian than anything).

[iam416]

I guess the folks in San Francisco also toppled Cervantes.

Strangelove celebrates.

[iam416]

NYC disbands anti-crime unit and shootings soar. https://nypost.com/2020/06/19/nyc-sh...disbanded/amp/

Since this is how news works these days, why not just join in.

[Hannibal]

Trump went from "the guy who said what needed to be said" to a guy who just doesn;t do anything now. In my lifetime there has never been a more desperate need for leadership at some level He's James Buchanan with a Twitter account.

[lineygoblue]

Get ready, Columbus Ohio. You're about to get a name change, and it will be 'delicious' ...

https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/flavortown-petition-rename-columbus-ohio-guy-fieri-saying

[Dr. Strangelove]

Note to self: Liney skims my posts