Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

So, a few points:

(1) Again, it's not just the awful "Wall Street" traders that are tied to the markets -- public pensions across the country depend on the market;

(2) And whoa boy, does California depend on a STRONG market. Assuming 7% return? (down from 7.5%) Goodness.

(3) Of course California tried to address it a substantive, meaningful way and of course it was rejected. Kick the can down the road and pray for the Federal bailout (which they trited to get via Covid).

(4) California isn't even anywhere close to being the worst off pension fund.

[iam416]

It was a guest, Talent, but none of the hosts really pressed her on it.

Right. The hosts and network knows it's batshit crazy, but that's also the narrative they want, so they need a mouthpiece. I'm surprised DSL has made a career of appearing MSNBC.

[AlabamAlum]

I am having fajitas and mexican beers today. Thought you all should know.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Cross your fingers we don't have any super-spreader events emerging out of Vegas. What happens in Vegas won't stay there!! Hyuck hyuck

[Hannibal]

There's a pretty big generational gap when it comes to the stock market. I think that Gen Xers and Boomers generally look to it as a sign of much needed prosperity. Gen Y is much less likely to receive a pension or a generous 401K and are likely going to retire with far less of a nest egg, so they honestly don't give a damn.

[THE_WIZARD_]

I am having fajitas and mexican beers today. Thought you all should know.

Good to know. Now kindly STFU.

[Hannibal]

Defined benefit pensions were a criminally stupid idea to begin with.

[Ghengis Jon]

Why would that be? Years ago, I took a position with Rockwell International. At the time, it was mostly high tech stuff they were building - B-1s, Shuttles, a lot of DoD and aviation material. In order to attract the very best (I slipped in anyway), a defined pension was offered in addition to a 401(k). I worked hard, got to play with cool stuff, and have been collecting my pension since age 55. As a longtime shareholder, I found no financial downside either. So my first hand experience is that a company with a defined benefit pension brings in a larger and better equipped talent pool that ultimately betters the company and also instills a sense of loyalty in the employee. People railing against pensions with only anecdotal experience is where you should look for "criminal stupidity".

Rockwell did eliminate it's defined pension for new employees in the late nineties. To compensate, they doubled the 401(k) match and then added an additional 3%.

[lineygoblue]

Bye bye Aunt Jemima.

Uncle Ben? You're NEXT!!!!

https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/aunt-jemima-brand-removing-image-racial-stereotype

[Hannibal]

Why would that be? Years ago, I took a position with Rockwell International. At the time, it was mostly high tech stuff they were building - B-1s, Shuttles, a lot of DoD and aviation material. In order to attract the very best (I slipped in anyway), a defined pension was offered in addition to a 401(k). I worked hard, got to play with cool stuff, and have been collecting my pension since age 55. As a longtime shareholder, I found no financial downside either. So my first hand experience is that a company with a defined benefit pension brings in a larger and better equipped talent pool that ultimately betters the company and also instills a sense of loyalty in the employee. People railing against pensions with only anecdotal experience is where you should look for "criminal stupidity".

Rockwell did eliminate it's defined pension for new employees in the late nineties. To compensate, they doubled the 401(k) match and then added an additional 3%.

Defined benefits presupposes future funding and returns. Past calculations also failed miserably to predict the rise in life expectancy for humans while overestimating the life expecta ncy of the companies that were supposed to fund the pensions. If you are 25 years old, it's foolish of you to expect that there is going to be a pot of money for you fifty years later unless you own it and control it yourself. It's foolish, period, to expect someone else to keep you in comfort for 20-30 years in which you are not generating any value or income from them. It's a huge economic burden. Shame on both the big corporate execs who kicked their expenses down the road and the labor unions who went along with it all. My company did away with defined benefit pensions about a decade ago. We still have at least a minor underfunded pension issue despite the stock market having returned over 2000% in the past 40 years. That's about 6 times inflation. Holy shit, imagine where we would be if that number was only 3 times inflation. I'm glad that you haven't gotten any of your pension ripped off (yet). It seems to me that underfunded pensions are not the outlier.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Defined benefits were a decent idea 70 years ago when WWII's soldiers and sailors were returning home and looking for jobs. Governments still have them in some form although they've been changed significantly in the last decade. Mismanagement of them by both government and corporate entities as well as collective bargaining agreements that company/govt. execs caved to are why they are, as Hanni describes them as "criminally stupid." I wouldn't go that far but it is foolish in the corporate world, to a lesser degree in govt. esp. federal govt., to think a pension is going to be there if you retired in your 60s and expect the corporation that promised you x, to still be providing X when you're 85.

Business models have also changed dramatically. You've got an entirely different perspective coming from management on margins with an eye on the short term, leveraging debt, risk taking and little concern for employees despite all the platitudes. I have grand kids in their mid-20s, professionals, good educations with good jobs in today's working world. None of them thinks they will remain with a company for long and usually not more than 3-5y. Those who stay are viewed as less than upwardly mobile and the reason they stay put, it is thought, is because they're not performing and moving up or out to the next position. They are constantly "practice interviewing" for a new job with another company and that is a practice that current employers of employees doing that tacitly approve of. This is especially true in the engineering and computer science fields where job requirements that define a position change on a monthly basis. You have to keep up or sit on the sidelines. Retiring from a compnay that you put a 30y career in went out the window a long time ago right along with defined benefit retirement programs.

It would take all my fingers and toes to count the friends or acquaintances I have that thought they were going to be fat in retirement, planned spending during it with a high reliance rate on a pension, who have had to make significant life style changes when that pension was either reduced or eliminated entirely out of bankruptcy.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Bolton with a lot of claims on how Trump dealt with China. Pretty much what you'd expect. Trump pleading with Xi to buy farm products and help his reelection. Trump not wanting to support Hong Kong, Taiwan, the Uighurs, or mark the Tiananmen Square anniversary because any of those might endanger his 'great' trade deal.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/john-bolton-the-scandal-of-trumps-china-policy-11592419564

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'm looking forward to his book.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Read an interesting article and now I can't find the link but the recently reported spike in retail sales was almost completely driven by auto and truck sales up 40%. Other sectors had modest or little improvement in sales. Restaurant sales rose only slightly and are equal to only what they were a decade ago. Retail clothing about the same.

In another article I read the spenders spurring retails sales increases are in the low to moderate income groups. The top 25% of income earners aren't spending much at all even though they have jobs and incomes didn't take that big of a hit due to COVID. One of the reasons for this is that while discretionary income in this group is abundant, what they usually spend on, travel, leisure, personal services and restaurants, just isn't available due to shuttering.

These service sectors that make up a large part of GDP in the US will continue to have stubbornly high unemployment rates that will be slow to recover. Big spenders aren't going to splurge any time soon and probably not until they feel save doing the things they usually spend money on ...... that will happen when there is an effective vaccine and not until.

Since spenders are the one's who are probably unemployed, underemployed or furloughed, probably drawing fat unemployment benefits it is this consumer that Fed Chairman Powell thinks need money in the next relief bill Congress is considering now. They are the consumers most likely to spend it and keep the US economy afloat sort-of as a bridge to getting the travel and leisure business back up and operating and the top 25% of income earners to feel safe enough to do stuff........

......something I am seeing is that there seems to be no shortage of consumers who want to sign up for a cruise even though the reality is that even an October re-start for the cruise industry may be a stretch. Most bookings are for 2021 with cancellations of bookings for Norwegian Cruise lines going all the way through September and a few in October 2020. This is based on the complexity of arranging itineraries from home ports and ports to be visited that may or may not be open any time soon and a confusing array of public health requirements from countries where these home ports and ports of call are located.

Anticipating that I won't be cruising for the rest of 2020, I started looking at Caribbean resort destinations. The best of them are booked through December and this is even with uncertainty that the countries these resorts are located in will welcome Americans, airports will be open, and flights available to them! Rates are through the roof. Forget it. The "staycation" at a place I can reach by car is looking pretty good.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I'm looking forward to his book.

Trump and his acolytes will moronically argue that it's full of classified information and also none of it's true.