Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Hannibal]

I still think, fundamentally, his pitch is aimed at people who aren't doing well. His slogan is clear. When I hear him speak, I hear, in part, jobs being lost overseas; jobs being lost to illegal immigrants; jobs going lots of place they shouldn't be going. I assume that plays well with his crowd. I assume, perhaps erroneously, that message is driving a lot of his support, along with his anti-PC stuff. To the extent you can make sense of a large group with a single explanation, I think the most best one is the one I offered. It obviously isn't nuanced, but I don't think it inaccurate.

The protectionism is a big part of his rhetoric but I don't think that his base is all that motivated by it and I don't know that it is necesarily winning him votes. I don't see Trump's support coming disproportionately from large industrial centers where a protectionism message would have the most appeal. He made "John Kasich voted for NAFTA" his strategy for winning Ohio and he lost pretty handily, especially in the big cities. I'm not a huge fan of that part of his message myself, but if he can use it is leverage to at least get some other countries to reduce their own tariffs then I think that it's a win.

There are other big motivating factors too. Another one is hatred of Big Media. Trump is also running as the "The media sucks" candidate. This has always been the realm of talk radio but no candidate has ever adopted that strategy until now. If you are a Republican it is very appealing. I, for one, have been waiting for 20+ years for a Republican candidate who is not going to naively think that he is going to get a fair shake from the media. George W. was absolutely infuriating in this department. Republican candidates are usually punching bags who rely exclusively on talk radio to do all their work for them. This is why I think that he is the most electable candidate despite polls showing the opposite right now. I am otherwise far more ideologically aligned with Rubio and Cruz.

[froot loops]

Trump is proposing huge income tax cuts across the board. He is proposing eliminating the estate tax. And he is promising to cut the deficit. That is textbook Laffer curve. Year 37 is when we see what they've been promising.

[entropy]

Re Trump voters (and Sanders voters), fundamentally it's about the perception that things are not fair or equal and THAT's to blame for your lot in life. Kevin Williamson of the National Review wrote a great piece about the "White Ghetto" awhile ago and then, recently, scorched them with a piece that has drawn some attention. He basically said that small, rural towns aren't hopping back to life. Your solution isn't raising tariffs or building a wall or raising the minimum wage or free college or whatever...your solution is to rent a fucking U-Haul and get the fuck out.

David French, another NR writer (who detests Trump, FWIW), posted this yesterday:

link?

[Hannibal]

Trump is proposing huge income tax cuts across the board. He is proposing eliminating the estate tax. And he is promising to cut the deficit. That is textbook Laffer curve. Year 37 is when we see what they've been promising.

Eh -- I know that's what's on his website but I don't think that his heart is really in it and he isn't talking about it much on the road.

[entropy]

I fully understand the difference between the two. If you want to argue that NAFTA and immigration have destroyed white working class, feel free. I disagree profoundly.

Frankly, Bernie has a far better argument when it comes to the devastating recession of 2008. Yeah, there's shitload of Federal Govt blame to go around, but Wall Street had some blood on its hands, too.

A post on the dreaded, "moronic" NR blog suggested that the timing of the financial crisis made it such that the response would be delayed. It happened when we already had nominees and were about to elect a President. Obama was able to parlay incumbency into 4 more years. Now the check is coming due. Now the anger of the recession has reached its boiling point. The author's point was that if it had happened in 2005 or 2006, then Trump/Sanders may have been the response 8 years ago.

read the article I posted... The Clintons do as well..

[entropy]

Trump is proposing huge income tax cuts across the board. He is proposing eliminating the estate tax. And he is promising to cut the deficit. That is textbook Laffer curve. Year 37 is when we see what they've been promising.

I'm not sure why people are scared of Trump... Dems hate him. So do Repbulicans. He'd be 4 yrs of nothing happening.


I think Bernie is right about the US infrastructure, but not how to solve. I'd rather see more focus on changing where the US spends rather than increasing taxes. The answer can't always be increase taxes. That said, estate tax needs to be overhauled. We should be encouraging people to save and pass on small businesses or savings to future generations. In fact, I think it would allow for more immigration long term. If you want to do something about a person inheriting 1B.. fine. But 1M isn't much anymore.. and if you own a capital intensive business like a junk yard, you're being punished. We need to focus on behaviors we want to promote rather than soundbites...

but I'm not sure americans would go for that..

[Wild Hoss]

There are other big motivating factors too. Another one is hatred of Big Media. Trump is also running as the "The media sucks" candidate. This has always been the realm of talk radio but no candidate has ever adopted that strategy until now. If you are a Republican it is very appealing. I, for one, have been waiting for 20+ years for a Republican candidate who is not going to naively think that he is going to get a fair shake from the media. George W. was absolutely infuriating in this department. Republican candidates are usually punching bags who rely exclusively on talk radio to do all their work for them.

Meh...another fictional "War on Christmas" wedge issue. Conservative elements control their own segregated Big Media; cable news, print, web and radio, the latter of which the Left has virtually no presence on.

The difference is that, for the first time, that conservative Big Media has been called out due to its opposition to Trump. I have even seen FNC referred to as "MSM" by Trump supporters, which, as a guy who was politically active in the 90s, almost made me spit liquid on my keyboard. I expect that we will see it happen more in the future, as more fringe-y elements seek attention and traction by painting conservative media as "establishment". It'll be hilarious.

[Wild Hoss]

I'm not sure why people are scared of Trump... Dems hate him. So do Repbulicans. He'd be 4 yrs of nothing happening.

Oh, I think there would plenty happening...all of it stupid, embarrassing, and potentially harmful. A four-year episode of Jerry Springer, with laser-guided munitions.

[froot loops]

Eh -- I know that's what's on his website but I don't think that his heart is really in it and he isn't talking about it much on the road.

There isn't much to talk about on the road currently, all of the other candidates in the GOP are offering up the same standard GOP Laffer curve madness. At this point it is settled policy in that party. It doesn't work but empirical evidence is not to be trusted.

Wait until the general election and you'll hear the magical thinking of cutting taxes to reduce the deficit all the time.

[froot loops]

Trump is getting more than a fair shake from the media. He gets more airtime than all the other candidates combined.

[entropy]

Oh, I think there would plenty happening...all of it stupid, embarrassing, and potentially harmful. A four-year episode of Jerry Springer, with laser-guided munitions.

don't disagree with the stupid, embarrassing part.. I'm sure we'd temporarily lose allies.. and to some extent, DC needs some colon blow...

but his policies would get nowhere. I should have been more clear on my point.

[entropy]

Trump is getting more than a fair shake from the media. He gets more airtime than all the other candidates combined.

he's certainly leveraged them to keep his name front and center.. he's become bama of the political race

[Hannibal]

Meh...another fictional "War on Christmas" wedge issue. Conservative elements control their own segregated Big Media; cable news, print, web and radio, the latter of which the Left has virtually no presence on.

Those sources have far less reach than the traditional huge Liberal sources, which have never honestly self-identified as being left of center.

Every time that George W. walked into a press conference, he was talking to a group of people who voted overwhelmingly for the other guy. He never adapted to it and he had absolutely no defensive instincts. Ditto for George Sr, Dole, McCain, and Romney. Republicans are sick and tired of being represented by Stockholm Syndrome punching bags.

[Hannibal]

There isn't much to talk about on the road currently, all of the other candidates in the GOP are offering up the same standard GOP Laffer curve madness. At this point it is settled policy in that party. It doesn't work but empirical evidence is not to be trusted.

Wait until the general election and you'll hear the magical thinking of cutting taxes to reduce the deficit all the time.

I don't think so but we'll see. Outside of "bring home money from offshore bank accounts" I don't expect tax cuts to be discussed much if at all during the general election.

There is empirical evidence that the Laffer curve has a lot of merit, but the mistake is assuming that it has merit when you are cutting taxes from 25% to 20% versus cutting taxes from 75% to 70%.

[entropy]

Those sources have far less reach than the traditional Liberal sources, which have never honestly self-identified as being left of center.

Every time that George W. walked into a press conference, he was talking to a group of people who voted overwhelmingly for the other guy. He never adapted to it and he had absolutely no defensive instincts. Ditto for George Sr, Dole, McCain, and Romney. Republicans are sick and tired of punching bags.

agree with this.. Many republicans I know feel the media is enemy #1. They are tired of seeing their candidate take it instead of saying that claim or label is not fair and here is why.