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Amid AP, CNN and other's featured headline stories, "Florida's New COVID Cases Surge," FL's R(t) dropped below 1.0 (0.99). I went though all the data yesterday. This is getting tiresome. You'd think the mainstream media would pick-up on this hackneyed headline.
TBF, the articles behind the headline did report FL's % +s were stable at 4% despite increased testing - I told you about the real numbers behind this yesterday too. Stunning levels of misleading information out there about the pandemic in the US though for public consumption...... which leads me to report on economic news:
The DJIA closed up for the 6th straight day with the NASDQ posting an inter-day record. The S&P 500 erased it's loses for the year. WTF? ..... and don't get me wrong, this is very good news for investors here, including me.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official body that does this, declared today the US is in a recession. The steep decline in employment and income is the worst since right after WWI and WWII, much sharper than the recession of 2008, with unemployment, now at 13.3%, reaching similar levels of the Great Depression at estimates of 20-25% at their worst points. Economists and most notably the markets, shrug. A lot of this has to do with the unique circumstances of this historically unprecedented global economic downturn that economists are coming to recognize.
Here's my take on what's going to happen going forward. Surviving companies are going to adapt by cutting costs and that means payrolls. It's already happening. PPG is an example. They announced today they are cutting 70K jobs world wide. Government jobs, usually a stabilizer of employment, are in the shitter due to on-going and forecast revenue losses due to COVID. This is actually going to get rid of a lot government dead weight. The US economy will become lean and mean with or without a foolishly constructed second bailout, fashioned by the D's that is arguably unnecessary. I could detail why but read about how this works yourself.
The bad news is that the pain is going to fall on the socioeconomically disadvantaged work force on the low end of the pay-scale. A lot of jobs eliminated in corporate purges, a lot jobs in the travel and leisure sectors, aren't coming back. If they do, it will be slowly ..... years. I would not want to be an airline pilot right now. When the PPP ends, we're talking about massive furloughs in that industry. From what I can tell, I think it will take something completely unexpected for cruise lines to return to operations this year/before a vaccine is available and scaleable, let alone profitability. There are going to be casualties and that industry employs 100s of thousands of workers. NCL is on the brink despite reassurances and rising stock prices. Royal Caribbean will run out of bridge money they gained by some creative financing in September. There are plenty of other companies that won't adapt and streamline operations to insure thier profitability.
What that means is a growing and restive global underclass some of them impoverished and starving to death. Developed countries won't be immune and I believe the US is particularly vulnerable to civil unrest. Most of us here will be fine but the rest? Man, I don't know. The progs will happily give away the farm to keep the restive masses placated ...... socialism and communism will look awfully appealing. History could be a remarkably good guide but any lessons learned from that are not likely to be applied. That's the way it works unfortunately.
The PRC will work their butts off to make the free world look bad and them good. This particular blending of circumstances may present a bigger challenge to the democracy and freedom we enjoy than any economic fall-out from COVID that will persist for, some say, a decade.
TBF, the articles behind the headline did report FL's % +s were stable at 4% despite increased testing - I told you about the real numbers behind this yesterday too. Stunning levels of misleading information out there about the pandemic in the US though for public consumption...... which leads me to report on economic news:
The DJIA closed up for the 6th straight day with the NASDQ posting an inter-day record. The S&P 500 erased it's loses for the year. WTF? ..... and don't get me wrong, this is very good news for investors here, including me.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official body that does this, declared today the US is in a recession. The steep decline in employment and income is the worst since right after WWI and WWII, much sharper than the recession of 2008, with unemployment, now at 13.3%, reaching similar levels of the Great Depression at estimates of 20-25% at their worst points. Economists and most notably the markets, shrug. A lot of this has to do with the unique circumstances of this historically unprecedented global economic downturn that economists are coming to recognize.
Here's my take on what's going to happen going forward. Surviving companies are going to adapt by cutting costs and that means payrolls. It's already happening. PPG is an example. They announced today they are cutting 70K jobs world wide. Government jobs, usually a stabilizer of employment, are in the shitter due to on-going and forecast revenue losses due to COVID. This is actually going to get rid of a lot government dead weight. The US economy will become lean and mean with or without a foolishly constructed second bailout, fashioned by the D's that is arguably unnecessary. I could detail why but read about how this works yourself.
The bad news is that the pain is going to fall on the socioeconomically disadvantaged work force on the low end of the pay-scale. A lot of jobs eliminated in corporate purges, a lot jobs in the travel and leisure sectors, aren't coming back. If they do, it will be slowly ..... years. I would not want to be an airline pilot right now. When the PPP ends, we're talking about massive furloughs in that industry. From what I can tell, I think it will take something completely unexpected for cruise lines to return to operations this year/before a vaccine is available and scaleable, let alone profitability. There are going to be casualties and that industry employs 100s of thousands of workers. NCL is on the brink despite reassurances and rising stock prices. Royal Caribbean will run out of bridge money they gained by some creative financing in September. There are plenty of other companies that won't adapt and streamline operations to insure thier profitability.
What that means is a growing and restive global underclass some of them impoverished and starving to death. Developed countries won't be immune and I believe the US is particularly vulnerable to civil unrest. Most of us here will be fine but the rest? Man, I don't know. The progs will happily give away the farm to keep the restive masses placated ...... socialism and communism will look awfully appealing. History could be a remarkably good guide but any lessons learned from that are not likely to be applied. That's the way it works unfortunately.
The PRC will work their butts off to make the free world look bad and them good. This particular blending of circumstances may present a bigger challenge to the democracy and freedom we enjoy than any economic fall-out from COVID that will persist for, some say, a decade.
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