Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

I'm curious what that means on a practical level. Does that mean the union is more or less defunct? Then they form a new force and can pick & choose which of the former officers to rehire? Because there isn't literally going to be NO police force forevermore. They may shift the burden toward the county level and commit resources to that, like Camden, NJ did.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Meanwhile, Minneapolis City Council intends to disband the police department. To each their own.

Really looking forward to every other D-controlled city doing the same.

I agree on your take that how a community wants to be policed is on the community. It's a local not a federal issue. If the Minny 911 operator receives a call indicating domestic violence is ongoing or about to be ongoing and the response is we'll send a social worker out there tomorrow morning, is what the community wants, then fine.

I did see a reference late last week in an article about the Justice Department during the Obama administration issuing Consent Decrees to several police departments that needed cleaning up - one of the in Baltimore - that produced the necessary pressure for positive change. I don't remember the details and have done all the digging I care to do this evening.

I don't understand the law well enough or the politics to know if the Trump's "Law and Order" administration has done the right thing by abandoning this process. I can see the benefits of them but they don't align with my (and your) stance on how the police are funded, function are equipped and trained is a local issue.

[iam416]

If they mean something other than disband then they should say something other than disband. I think it’s very clear they intend to rid themselves if MPD. What, if anything, replaces them is a mystery.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Jeff- I've been to a few microbreweries now in the past couple of weeks. I went to two down by Cincinnati yesterday and they were very different experiences. The first one I went to, other than all the staff wearing masks and spots on the floor marked on where to stand when waiting in line to order, you'd never know anything unusual was going on. It was a very open-air environment, with two levels of patios and the indoor portion had all windows open. The place was packed. To the point I was uncomfortable being there and tried to stay outside (even though it was 90+ in Cincinnati yesterday). The second venue I went to was totally different. All beer was served in disposable plastic cups (unlike stop #1). Tables had clearly been spread out more than normal (unlike stop #1). There were signs advising behavior all over versus one sign at the door at my first stop. This was out in the burbs more and it was pretty empty. I will say at stop #1 any time anyone left a table they would come by and spray it down with something -- not just the usual clean up and a wet rag.

I had a mask in my pocket in case anyone said anything but i needn't have bothered. No customers in either place were wearing them.

[CGVT]

If people are careful...

sigh

[Whitley]

I made this prediction for Michigan back in the coronavirus thread.

I think we are finding out that the summer is going to be able to buy time for most places, this was mentioned in an article for The Atlantic. So the summer is going to be decent. In the meantime, I think people will not mask that often (less than 50% will be my guess) and they will not social distance. They will think that this is all over.

Then comes late September/early October----the flu season will come back. There will be a second wave and it is going to make this look like a walk in the park.

[lineygoblue]

So in MinneaNoPlace, is going to adopt the "Flint Michigan Model" for policing its city. Obviously, because its worked so well there.

[Whitley]

So in MinneaNoPlace, is going to adopt the "Flint Michigan Model" for policing its city. Obviously, because its worked so well there.

I am curious what community based public safety is exactly. That sounds like police under a different name.

Now, if this is a more integrated approach dealing with mental health/social workers (with more people in that with more appropiate levels of funding), trying to get more services to lower income areas along with police/fire. Now that could be something intriguing.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I made this prediction for Michigan back in the coronavirus thread.

I think we are finding out that the summer is going to be able to buy time for most places, this was mentioned in an article for The Atlantic. So the summer is going to be decent. In the meantime, I think people will not mask that often (less than 50% will be my guess) and they will not social distance. They will think that this is all over.

Then comes late September/early October----the flu season will come back. There will be a second wave and it is going to make this look like a walk in the park.

Whitley, I don't know what data you have access to for MI and maybe it's not to the level of detail I can see for FL. But, if you have in MI what I can see in FL, you should be able to determine if the summer is going to be "decent" or it isn't. There should be no wondering about it. If the growth rate of the virus goes up as measured by R(t) - and it has to go up at a fast enough rate that trends predict it will approach MI's initial R(O) at date X - I think it was initially around 6.0 - there's a need to re-consider reopening strategies. If that doesn't happen then it's clear that MI, like some of us think here will happen to states with initial R(0) values in the 3-7 range, we'll get to a plateau, it's acceptable, and won't decline until an effective and scaleable vaccine is introduced.

It remains to be seen but trends in FL would indicate this state with an initial R(O) of 3.5-4 has reached a plateau considerably below that if FL's R(t) today = to 1.00 is accurate. I think it is and I back that up with the deep-dive numbers I provided up thread.

OTH, there is plenty of evidence that there are large numbers of people in FL that have not yet been infected so the virus could get the upper hand and cases sky-rocket in a second wave in the fall. I've just not seen a lot of evidence that a 2nd COVID wave is going to happen in FL. The behavior of the virus - its transmissibility as defined by R(T) and the severity of illness it is responsible for - is significantly less than "experts" offer that it is. Trend lines getting fed by more robust and more accurate data - if one chooses to look at it unemotional and apolitically - are more promising than not.

I agree that the flu season could complicate matters - get a fucking flu shot. We have vaccines for that and they work. The usual suspects (anti-vaxers, the elderly over 80 and the immunocompromised) are going to take a hit from SARS-CoV-2 or influenza. The rest will be fine and that is the vast majority. I feel bad that anyone is going to get real sick or die but we cannot allow that 5% to dictate the predicted outcome for the 95% ..... but the media will try to do that and it is so wrong.

[foxhopper]

Would love to see some numbers of those who have died who previously received a flu shot. And percentage of those who didn't and recovered. Seems easy enough if they wanted too. Not that you could trust the answers.

[Jeff Buchanan]

It's out there if you really want to know. CDC keeps the data as well as multiple other sources. Google. Spoiler: Death and serious illness rates as well as Dr. visits for ILI rates secondary to flu A and B are much higher for unvaccinated pediatric cohorts, adolescents, adults to age 65 and the elderly. It's not even close. If you're looking for data to support the position that you dont need a flu shot you won't find it.

[foxhopper]

I have been looking and mostly found studies done before covid.

Past virus interference theories etc. Do you really, really believe they would tell us the truth if it went against the agenda? I do not.

It just seems like a common sense study to do and should be much easier to find solid numbers by now. It would also be a blow to the anti vax crowd if they would release the numbers and overwhelmingly proved the yearly shot decreased deaths. Never happen though...Too much money and reputations at stake.

I'm beginning to not trust anything the so called experts are saying.

I see you are trying your best to interpret the findings and pass on the info you believe to be true. Thank you. You seem to have been trained for years to trust your sources, but something tells me you are even questioning many things.It is tough to realize things you have been taught and believed in your entire career just might have been bullshit.

[iam416]

Kevin Williamson states the obvious -- we know who's been running these cities where all these this racism is happening. https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/...-abstractions/

[Jeff Buchanan]

In my first post in response to your's where you asked: "Would love to see some numbers of those who have died who previously received a flu shot. And percentage of those who didn't and recovered," I may have misunderstood your question. I assumed it was just a simple question: Does a vaccination reduce deaths and illness from Type A and B flu (predominantly H1N1)? The simple answer is yes.

I think what you were asking involved concurrent (comorbid) SARS-CoV-2 and H1N1 infection and if the flu vaccination reduced mortality and morbidity in individuals that have both illnesses. You are correct, there isn't anything out there on that specific question that I know of. There is lots of studies that demonstrate patients with COVID-19 accompanied by a broad range of additional diseases fare much worse than those that are otherwise comorbid disease free. I think it would be safe to conclude that a person that tested positive for both SARs-CoV-2 and Type A or B influenza predicts a worse outcome than having any one of those diseases separately.

I also believe it is safe to conclude that since there is a vaccine for influenza, if one were inoculated and had some protection from typical respiratory symptoms associated with H1N1 and also developed COVID-19, that person's outcome would be better. Because that's pretty obvious, it would seem that's why there aren't any studies. I don't see any cover-ups or conspiracies preventing such studies.

One other point: the pathogenesis of the two diseases are different, cause a different array of symptoms and are managed differently. The immune system responds differently to both with the body's ability to fend off the development of severe influenza symptoms, inoculated or not, far greater than that of the novel SARS-CoV-2 for which there is no vaccine and no innate immunity like there is for H1N1 that's been around for decades. Because of those facts, I don't think the scientific or medical community would be much interested in studying the question you pose.

I question everything. That does not imply a lack of trust. I trust my sources until it is demonstrated that they are untrustworthy. I was trained as a scientist; I believe in the scientific method. I'm not anywhere close to abandoning that method or conclusions derived from it because it's "bullshit."

[iam416]

And, just for Buchanan, the coronavirus "may" be burning itself out -- https://justthenews.com/politics-pol...-becoming-less

Based entirely on quotes from doctors and their observations and not really on anything sufficient to base an objective conclusion on. But, still....why not post unsupported optimism instead of unsupported pessimism?