Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Hello, AA

[iam416]

bootlicker

[Dr. Strangelove]

Sometime before the March to the Church, Trump decided he wanted to use active-duty military against protesters. Milley refused. They got into a shouting match and Trump eventually backed down. This is what I suspected was the final straw for Mattis to break his silence.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/trumps-public-relations-army

[Dr. Strangelove]

bootlicker

Treat a Birmingham-Southern grad kindly and he may one day repay you with a favor. A free bag of boiled peanuts or a flask made in the shape of Stonewall Jackson.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Unemployment is probably higher than what was reported according to footnotes buried in yesterday's report. It's extremely high either way of course. If you consider what the BLS is calling a "misclassification error", April's real unemployment was probably more like 20% and May's 16%. So the good news is it's still going down and not up. The article explains what's going on and why there could be a few million people not being counted as "unemployed".

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/heres-why-the-real-unemployment-rate-may-be-higher-than-reported.html

[iam416]

I guess fellow trade school grads need to look out for one another.

[iam416]

Unemployment is probably higher than what was reported according to footnotes buried in yesterday's report. It's extremely high either way of course. If you consider what the BLS is calling a "misclassification error", April's real unemployment was probably more like 20% and May's 16%. So the good news is it's still going down and not up. The article explains what's going on and why there could be a few million people not being counted as "unemployed".

This is the type of thing that is completely expected from the Media and/or "Expert Class." They were massively wrong in their May unemployment predictions -- and other experts have been massively wrong in other predictions, too. But, they were wrong on this so there must be a reason. Further, you can't possibly credit PDJT (not that he has much to do with this, but the economy is his only hope), so the unambiguously good news must really not be that good. Paul Krugmen is surely apolopletic.

I don't think anyone is considering 13% (or 16%) or whatever as a great place to be. But, when unemployment was predicted to continue skyrocketing, an actual drop is, without question, good news.

I'm starting to the Markets actually DO know what's going on. They're investing without emotion, without hysterics, without political agenda. Perhaps they'll drop significantly on the "news" that it's really not that good, but I sort of doubt it.

[iam416]

The reality, of course, is that places started reopening and part-time jobs, for sure, started coming back. Full-time jobs going to lag. That seems fairly straight-forward. And it suggests -- I'm sure to the massive disappointment of some -- that we're not entering into a Greater Depressiont.

[iam416]

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go ride my multi-thousand dollar bicycle across the barren plains of Union and Madison Counties. Worry not, it's propely adorned with tassles and a bell.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go ride my multi-thousand dollar bicycle across the barren plains of Union and Madison Counties. Worry not, it's propely adorned with tassles and a bell.

I hope your 10-speed Huffy can outrace the barbarians of the steppe, should they appear. Keep one eye trained on the north.

[AlabamAlum]

Jesus. We have a faux ivy “grad” who majored in interior design of truck stops arguing with a guy who “graduated” from a Caribbean “law” school. Sure, be proud of your diploma from ‘The Haitian School of Bongos and Lawyerin’ Stuff’ diploma, but don’t get uppity.

[foxhopper]

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go ride my multi-thousand dollar bicycle across the barren plains of Union and Madison Counties. Worry not, it's propely adorned with tassles and a bell.

What? No basket for transporting foraged plants, seeds, roots and road kill for impending future food shortages? Think man!

[lineygoblue]

Now all he needs is a wadded up baseball card stuck in the spokes with a clothes pin to make the motorcycle sound ..

[iam416]

To sum up the ride -- I got my assed kicked. Woof. Dog tired.

Now, all of you can fuck the fuck off.

[Jeff Buchanan]

All last week's COVID data for FL was updated at noon today. There is an unmistakable increase in new cases that coincides with dates of re-opening on a statewide basis. New total, daily or 7d averages case #s by county vary widely- some are low and stable some are high and increasing.

State wide % +s are as low as 3.4% depending on how it is calculated and this percentage has decreased with increased testing. Since mid March, daily testing administered across FL has doubled. By county there is, again, wide variation in % +s. Excluding a couple of outliers, % +s vary from 10% to 0%. ED/hospital and presenting/admission symptom data state wide is all decidedly downward trending and the splines have steep downward trends.

I think it may be safe to conclude that in FL, elder care facilities and possibly prisons have been ravaged to the extent the peak in new cases and deaths have occurred. It's a bit shakier to conclude that migrants employed in farming and the more vulnerable FL residents, in general, have hit a peak. Most of the more vulnerable, it seems, are staying sheltered and as they move out and start to socialize more that cohort may take a hit. Migrant farm workers are recognized hot spot in FL being followed closely. Overall, though, the newly infected are going to be younger and less likely to become seriously ill. Data supporting these conclusions is somewhere in the 500+ page, daily FL reports. I looked but couldn't find it.

FL's R(t) is 1.04 and this number would be both consistent with increased virus transmissibility and the increased case numbers state wide. R(t) > 1 signals that the virus is continuing to infect an increasing number of FL residents; its not receding/contained as long as R(t) remains above 1.0. That some of the COVID related health metrics are trending down, some of them way down, it's clear that while new case numbers are rising, they are doing so within the capacity of the state to deal with that. It could also support my conclusion that a cohort of younger, healthier newly infected FL residents isn't going to show up at the ED and subsequently get admitted with a COVID-19 diagnosis and potentially die.

I'd have to be the proverbial fly-on-a-wall in the meetings the governor has with his public health policy advisors to hear what they are telling him given this data.There has to be some tension between economic advisors pushing for re-openings and epidemiologist and medical people concerned about the implications for public health in that room.

It's like a duhhhh moment that with only about 3% of FL's population known to have been exposed (it's likely much higher), recovered or died, there's going to be more infections until herd immunity is achieved (supposedly not going to happen) or an effective vaccine becomes widely available (happening sooner than later). Until a vaccine is available then, a state can stay sheltered and shuttered by degree and probably hold new infections down or it can open things up by degree and with the attendant increased socialization experience increased numbers of infections. FL has been among the most aggressive states in its reopening strategy from a time standpoint but not necessarily by detail. Desantis has been measured in when and what should open and what shouldn't. I think you can generalize FL's experience and circumstances to a broad range of states, not all of them, but enough to start to make national sense out of this COVID thing.

I think we're doing as well as could be expected. Still, we're going to see these tensions smolder for another 6 months between advocates for revitalizing state economies by re-openings in various degrees/steps and justifiably worried public health officials concerned over increased trannsmissibility (R(t). The debates will continue and the press will misrepresent the data to continue to fit their fear inducing narrative for public consumption. I do think that as long as the actual percentage of the US population that is infected remains less than 30%, this plateauing of new case #s will persist and experts who are qualified to make such assessments will raise concerns about this. As well the press will report on - EVERY ONE OF THEM - augmenting negativity and failing to report any qualifiers the experts add. TBH, none of this is easy to understand let alone draw conclusions from the COVID data ...... that's why I am here for you!