Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Tom W]

Games played in empty or half filled stadiums is only going to be moderately less sad than nothing at all. Sure, there will be makeshift/surrogate tailgating and watching “events”, and that might be entertaining.

but..... we’re going to have a much clearer picture of what is still going on right now. It just might show that the Hannibalistic predictions were a lot closer to reality and there will be a lot o WTF was this necessary?

[Hannibal]

Is there much cost to playing in empty stadiums? Certainly less revenue but there should be enough to cover just the refs and security?

[Tom W]

Ohio pays their refs really well- especially for THE game. So, there might be a business case to consider.

[AlabamAlum]

If the P5 doesn’t play, they lose hundreds of millions in RV money.

[Dr. Strangelove]

5 of the 6 Ohio MAC schools have already said students will on campus in the Fall. So has Cincinnati. OSU, Akron, and a few other state schools haven't made a decision yet

https://www.thelantern.com/2020/05/the-state-of-ohio-universities-some-make-decisions-on-fall-returns-ohio-state-weighs-options/

[Jeff Buchanan]

.........but..... we’re going to have a much clearer picture of what is still going on right now. It just might show that the Hannibalistic predictions were a lot closer to reality and there will be a lot o WTF was this necessary?

I want to THINK that the way most states are re-opening - cautiously while maintaining sensible mitigation and containment measures - is going to demonstrate by mid to late July that the virus is neither as lethal or as difficult to contain as the hand-wringers have projected, mostly incorrectly so far.

I can find all kinds of studies that, as more and more is learned about how the virus spreads, keep showing lethality is much lower than it was thought to be initially, is concentrated in a sub group by age over 80 or over 55 with uncontrolled co-morbid disease and afflicts the majority of people with only mild to moderate respiratory symptoms typically associated with coronaviruses (the common cold).

I'm not saying SARS-COV-2 is "just the flu or just a cold." It is worse than that in terms of the respiratory symptoms it produces and that it will more easily than typical influenzas cause the death of the elderly with compromised immune and respiratory symptoms at baseline and 55 year olds who are immunocompromised, have advanced or uncontrolled diabetes, obstructive lung disease or heart failure.

But, I think the US in particular, and their are exceptions by state, did a poor job in reviewing the data on the virus available from multiple countries and sources through February and then fashioning better protocols to protect more vulnerable groups and more reasonable business shutterings than was widely done and accepted as necessary.

At this point that doesn't matter but in re-opening, states need to be very careful not to over-react to indicators of rising case numbers and shut everything down again. The facts support both the focus on and need for the protection of vulnerable groups, less concern about those who are healthy and younger and targeted business closings when that is warranted by the data.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This article at the link isn't terrible. It has it's flaws and I'll get to that. The author is Erin Bromage who has gained some level of notoriety for his blog posts. He's a Virologist and Immunologist so, he's talking from an informed place.

The first part of the article which details how the virus spreads is good. We know that R(0) of SARS-COV-2 is between 1 and 3. But not everyone infects the same numbers of people. It's messy. There is one image where 1 COVID infected person infects 1 other person and another infects 8. These are super shedders. They have high viral loads and when they come in close contact with a lot of folks, a lot of other folks get infected. Why some become super shedders isn't known. But there have been isolated examples of them at funerals, choir practice and other large gatherings where contact tracing has been done. These have been termed super cells.

Fine. However, the data shows that there aren't a lot of these super shedders or super cells. More likely there are a LOT of infected folks who won't infect anyone else and some more that will infect more than 1 but less than 4. How can I make that claim? Well, common sense. Look what happens to the natural progression of R(0) over time for the global history of pandemics and epidemics (SARS, MERS, EBOLA, Sainish Flu). In many cases, the downward trend of infectivity to 1 or less is without mitigation measures - it just takes longer to get there. With mitigation measures, the time frame is shorter.

There's nothing wrong with what Bromage is suggesting people do this Memorial Day weekend when they will undoubtedly socialize. The difference between where Bromage stands on this and I do is that Bromage might contend that among a group of 20 gathering for a family picnic this weekend, there are going to be 6 people with COVID infection, 4 of them are super shedders and 2 more who are infected but they are not supper shedders. A super cell is created. I'll contend super spreaders and super cells are uncommon and the data to date supports that. So, I'll say there are 3 infected persons in that group of 20, 1 is shedding the virus and 1 isn't and 1 of the 3 infected persons in the group of 20 is a super shedder. Bromage would predict 15/20 will get the virus and a couple of grand parents or relatives with diabetes might die from it in what he might call a super cell. I'll predict only 3/20 will get infected at the Memorial Day family picnic, one will have moderate symptoms and get pretty sick and two will have mild symptoms - this consistent with current data that suggests those numbers. If people are careful, those infected won't be grandma or grandpa or uncle Ned who is overweight and has diabetes or aunt Nellie who still smokes and has COPD and heart failure.

How to Have a Safer Pandemic Memorial Day

[iam416]

I think that after two months of having social distancing drilled into our subconscious there is almost no way for us to re-open any other way but cautiously. Ultimately, they can re-open anything. But the public will decide how safely (or unsafely) we handle the re-opening. I think you're going to see lots of social distancing and a fairly high prevalence of masks. And, of course, hand-washing. Those acts, IMO, go a very long way to keeping the R(t) value within the tolerable range.

I firmly believe the reason Japan and South Korea were able to handle this better anyone else are twofold -- (1) they lived through SARS in 2003 and were ready to react immediately; and (2) culturally, they do things that limit the R(t) value. Yes, the testing and tracing and all that is also good -- but the quick reaction time and, I think most importantly, the cultural acceptance of masks, social distancing, etc. was huge.

[CGVT]

Looks as if we found the flaw in your analysis.

"If people are careful,"

People aren't careful.

Christ, when they opened things up around here it was like Christmas. You know, FREEDOM!
Trump doesn't wear a mask, they don't wear a mask.
Wash your hands? Why? It's just a hoax. The numbers are inflated and even if they are not, it only kills old people
Social distancing? Not me. it's just a liberal ploy to make Der Fuhrer look bad.
And if I do get it, I'll just take me some hydroxychloroquine. I mean, what could it hurt?

I get it. You can't stay locked down forever. People need to work, but there has to be a balance. Assuming that people are going to be careful should never be figured into the equation.
People are selfish and stupid.

[Tom W]

Thanks Jeff- Of course, I'm biased- but people are going to be regally pissed if there's no CFB season and this all turns out to be nothing more than a particularly nasty flu.. that is especially lethal to those over 80. Heck, if you're in that group and can tolerate the stadium experience then you're one tough SOB. Hats off to you.

So, BTW- will check with MyTailgate - but how's Maryland sound for brats? Maybe I'll have some crabs brought up too.

[Whitley]

Presdient Deals today says all places of worship MUST open immediately. If they do not open up immediately then President Deals will override the governors of the states that do not. How, he is going to do that is unknown.

CDC had a plan for opening up places of worship. White House rejected it because it was to detail orientated. CDC now has "guidelines" that are much less detail orientated that the White House likes.

[Whitley]

Looks as if we found the flaw in your analysis.

"If people are careful,"

People aren't careful.

Christ, when they opened things up around here it was like Christmas. You know, FREEDOM!
Trump doesn't wear a mask, they don't wear a mask.
Wash your hands? Why? It's just a hoax. The numbers are inflated and even if they are not, it only kills old people
Social distancing? Not me. it's just a liberal ploy to make Der Fuhrer look bad.
And if I do get it, I'll just take me some hydroxychloroquine. I mean, what could it hurt?

I get it. You can't stay locked down forever. People need to work, but there has to be a balance. Assuming that people are going to be careful should never be figured into the equation.
People are selfish and stupid.

Ding. Ding.

There was a post shared on Overhead in ______County FB page.

It was from the owner of a high scale restaurant shared from a neighboring county page. He said as soon as news came that restaurants can open at 50% capacity if following strict guidelines within an hour the phone was ringing. There were people wanting seating for 20 (gatherings are 10 or less)and others calling saying they were flying in and wanted flexibility on their reservation because they were coming straight from the airport (emphasis mine) to eat. He said they were going to stay take out because that was the best way he could protect his workers.

I think there is a significant amount that just do not care about others. It is all about their needs. As long as it does not effect them that is all that matters.

I applaud a couple local grocery places here. One has a sign that says on their front door---no masks, no service. Another says you have to wear a mask and only one person per family is allowed in the store. I definitely will try to spend more money there even if their prices are a little higher.

[iam416]

I am absolutley and completely unsurprised that CGVT and Whitley think that "[a]ssuming that people are going to be careful should never be figured into the equation." Their answer is never with the people; it's always -- ALWAYS with the Government.

I feel bad for them. I feel bad that they live around bad people. They should move to Columbus. Folks here generally are following the guidelines. It's a great place.

I get it. You can't stay locked down forever. People need to work, but there has to be a balance. Assuming that people are going to be careful should never be figured into the equation.
People are selfish and stupid.

No, you do want to stay locked down forever. Or until there's a vaccine. Your partisan shitposting is a joke. I assfucked your dumbass Texas bullshit and now you're back for more. What it is today is what it will be 8-12 months from now. Period. Nothing is changing. You actually think we should re-open (and I know you don't because that's PDJT thinks and you can't possibly bring yourself to agree with him) -- then you're going to have to trust that enough people will act sensibly to lower the R(t) value. There is zero alternative. But you don't care because you're a lockdown forever dude.

The facts are that R(t) values in nearly ever state are less than 1. Whether you're in a lockdown or not. We've managed to get things down to less than 1. That's human behavior driven. We have generally changed the way we behave and it's having an effect. You keep pointing out whatever partisan bullshit anecdotes. I'll keep point out macro stats.

WE. HAVE. CHANGED. BEHAVIOR. PERIOD.

[iam416]

Florida and Georgia continue to show no spikes in cases. I can almost hear the Media and CGVT sobbing. Oh, how they were hoping and wishing and hoping and praying for a huge spike. Don't worry, you may still get your wish. Fingers crossed!

[Ghengis Jon]

New official White House portrait of the First Couple.


Prez & 1st Lady.jpg