Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

You're posting links to a covid-overview when you have shit near ten score posts from Buchanan to call on?

He said it was for "laymen." I've taken all you fuckers way past that stage.

It's not a bad article. Parts of it are OK but I came across with the general impression that it was intended to scare the shit out of people. More below.

[iam416]

That's true. With all of Alabam"Alum"'s negativity and poor-mouthing, I sometimes forget the tremendous contributions you've made to this topic. Frankly, it's required reading. Dr. Strangelove would certainly benefit from reading something other than Rachel Maddow's diary.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The article reports an R(O) factor of 5.6. That might have been the figure 3 months ago. Right now it's reliably believed to be between 1.5 and 3.0 with a final figure when this thing is completely done doing the shit it does of 1.0-1.5 and highly circumstance dependent.

We know here that as testing increases globally, regardless of things that affect infection rates, like population density, viral load X time of exposure, etc., the actual infectivity of the virus is going to go down.

The article number is wildly incorrect and if I'm a layman I go holy shit, this thing is really infectious.

The article calls SARS-COV-2 a "parasite." Figuratively perhaps but biologically, no. Moreover words like that to describe it sound way scarier than saying it's a virus.

I'm not sure I like the description of how people die from SARS-COV-2 and the COVID-19 symptoms without putting that in context, i.e., only 5% of those infected will become seriously ill with things like ARDS (which is what some, not all, will expire from) and fewer will actually die. I've been asked about the dying process. At my capacity to understand it, I have a pretty good idea of what dying from SARS-COV-2 is about. It is very complex so, yeah, this is a "laymen's" description of it, without context and is plain, over the top scary. Of course, that's part of this article's intent.

I can tell you, reading the scientific and medical research on this thing is really boring. There is tons of it and I work tirelessly to bring it to you in Cliff Notes form although Wiz doesn't think I do well enough at that ..... expected since his reading skills are not much past the Dick and Jane series yet, "look Jane, see Dick run."

The article goes into the technical characteristics of how humans get infected by SARS-COV-2. The description seems accurate but I've not heard that the bond between the capsule binding protein and ACE receptors in human respiratory tissue cells is "5X stronger" than for other coronavirus species. I have heard the scientific evidence for how the virus get's inside respiratory tract cells and then replicates is not well understood. There is a lot of uncertainty about the roll of ACE receptors in infection - calling the bond 5X stronger and being the reason that "COVID-19 symptoms are so much worse ...." is a bit of an over-reach based on the evidence that I have read. Sounds scary though doesn't it?

I don't mean to pimp Whitley here. I hope he sees this as a gesture on my part to get past the lay press' version of things - some of it good most of it very bad - and take the time to look at more serious reports ..... or just pay attention to what I'm posting here people.

[iam416]

Per RT.Live, only two states currently have R values over 1. https://rt.live/

That will probably change a little bit with re-opening. BUT, I think it's clear that we know how to reduce the R value significantly with basic, sane practices that don't involve quarantine.

Of note, the R values in Florida and Georiga have not changed since re-opening orders.

[lineygoblue]

China says they will share the corona virus vaccine, once it becomes available.

How nice of them. I think I'll run right out to my local (formerly inside dining) Chinese take-out and have the Pu Pu Platter .. hold the egg rolls.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/world/2020/05/18/china-will-make-virus-vaccine-available-public-good-xi-says/111794782/

[lineygoblue]

Want to get drunk in Michigan? Head to the UP!!! The party is on!!!

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/05/18/whitmer-announce-reopening-plans/5212594002/

[lineygoblue]

And, .. just in case China doesn't keep their 'promise' to 'share the vaccine' ...

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/18/vaccine-moderna-shows-early-promise-viral-immune-response/111794964/

[Jeff Buchanan]

Per RT.Live, only two states currently have R values over 1. https://rt.live/

That will probably change a little bit with re-opening. BUT, I think it's clear that we know how to reduce the R value significantly with basic, sane practices that don't involve quarantine.

Of note, the R values in Florida and Georiga have not changed since re-opening orders.

Right ...... I think R(t) is greatly undervalued as a measure of re-opening progress or the need to tighten up. We should not give a shit about new total or new daily case or death numbers. Measures of rates, sure, the rest is a crock and I remain frustrated that this is what keeps getting reported in the media and, it seems, some decision makers are looking at.

I just penned a letter to the Miami Herald about this. Report useful rate numbers. Hold city commissioners, mayors and other officials to task for not disclosing what measures they are using to make re-opening decisions that have a huge impact on residents lives and the business community affected by them.

One thing to remember is that rate measures are subject to some vagaries that become less impactfull over time. At the same time if you wait for data reports for too long, that can be just as damaging to the value of these rate measures.

I'm not a statistician but I'm told calculations of rates, GR for example, even % of new positives given all new tests administered over a specific time frame, lag. So, looking at the time period of openings, say on a day to day basis, is going to introduce the potential for errors in interpretation of them. For example, Broward Co, opened gyms today. Don't expect to get meaningful data based on GR, % positives of all tests, etc tomorrow .... although you can expect the press to jump right on that if any of them go up including new reported cases. Ignore that shit. They wwon't likely report any good news so you won't have to worry about that.

This is why R(t) has so much value. When it first came out, I did look carefully at the RT.live web site at how that value is calculated. The modelers did a really good job of explaining why factors included in the complex equation to calculate it were included. It's gold, I'm tellan ya, GOLD.

[Jeff Buchanan]

And, .. just in case China doesn't keep their 'promise' to 'share the vaccine' ...

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/18/vaccine-moderna-shows-early-promise-viral-immune-response/111794964/

Seriously, Strange ........ Jon posted the CNN article, almost identical to the News article just after 7 this am. That was followed by two posts, one of them mine, putting the Moderna announcement in context.

Maybe I missed something new in the article pertaining to China but if I didn't try to keep up dumb ass.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I just penned a letter to the Miami Herald about this.

Watch out...Jeff has entered the "writing angry letters to the local newspaper" stage of life.

[iam416]

Step 1. Demand more tests before any reopening can occur.

Step 2. Wait for more positives to result from more tests.

Step 3. BLOOD ON THEIR HANDS!!!!

[Dr. Strangelove]

Seriously, Strange ........ Jon posted the CNN article, almost identical to the News article just after 7 this am. That was followed by two posts, one of them mine, putting the Moderna announcement in context.

Maybe I missed something new in the article pertaining to China but if I didn't try to keep up dumb ass.

You're quoting liney there, not me. Second time in about 3 days your memory and/or reading comprehension has entered the Biden Zone. Try to keep up, "dumb ass".

[iam416]

Just a quick reminder -- from The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ndemic/610882/

Georgia's Experiment in HUMAN SACRIFICE

This is the game these people play. This is the Media.

[Jeff Buchanan]

....... also, fuck China. I don't give a shit that they want to appear as Mr. Nice Guy and jump to the word's aid combating the very virus they probably were studying in the Wuhan lab that strangely first appeared in that city.

They've been running a nice guy campaign since they emerged from a pandemic that began in their country that they lied about its extent and that they seeded the rest of the world's big cities with by failing to close their airports to outgoing international passenger traffic when they knew damn well that the virus would spread globally by failing to do that.

They also recently pledged $2b to WHO, their collaborators in the deception and failure to contain. Fortunately, a good portion of the word's nations are wising up to how absolutely responsible the Chinese are for this shit-storm and how absolutely liable they should be for reparations.

Fuck them, over and over.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Guilty as charged ...... I will try to be more careful. Try is the operative word here. Be respectful of your elders!

Linesman, try to keep up. Pay attention, dumb ass.