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The news this morning is filled with these headlines (or something like it): 3000 NEW DEATHS PER DAY IN JUNE!!!..... or...... NEW CASES KEEP RISING IN THE US.
Fine, I get this. Deaths are going to lag so the increases are, in part, explainable. The new cases still rising narrative can't be easily explained away. Is it controversial re-openings? I don't think it is but I'm biased so TIFIW.
One article I read this morning suggests it is because of the differences in local responses to the virus going back to January. Circumstances in New York and NYC are very different from those in bum-fuck Montana or whatever very different set of circumstances you want to apply to any given region. Or, it could be because Americans in general and compared to European counterparts are flouting social distancing and masking guidelines (I really doubt this when I think of the Italians, French and Spaniards, Germans? Swiss? Maybe).
Pundits wonder and worry about why European nation's case #s have peaked and are declining while, outside of NYC (which has peaked and is declining) the US numbers seem to keep slowly rising creating this elongated peak instead of the steep drop seen, for example, in Spain.
I don't think it is rocket science to understand why the US is having this uneven plateau of new case #s compared to other countries. I do think that widely varying early responses to SARS-COV-2 and the post case # rise re-openings is contributing. But,I also think the hugely diverse circumstances in the geography, space and population densities in the US compared to the more homogeneous and more compact nations of Europe is a major player in these comparisons. So, stop comparing. It is what it is in the US. It's going to be different and for good reason.
OK, so, what about China, a huge geographically and demographically diverse country, you ask? What about those fucks? Their government brutally restricted movement early on and if there is a local flare, they repeat that activity. That isn't going to play in the US. Australia and New Zealand? Probably outliers in terms of R(0) and a unified response on recognition of the virus and post case # decrease re-openings. A recognizable fault, IMO, of the US's initial response and now on-going re-openings is the divergent nature of them state by state and even county by county. Fine. We can worry about that latter in lessons learned and a better response to the next pandemic. For now, it is what it is and that ain't gonna change.
TBH, I think in the grand scheme of things, the differences we see today derived from the comparisons the media wants to make and, of course, turn that into a narrative of doom and gloom, the differences are not that big of a deal when you contrast that with the social and economic costs of saying, holly shit, we are in trouble, shutter back up. I say, keep on truck'in. Manage case #s and deaths in the US and state/county wide by continuing to ID new infections, isolate them and and trace their contacts. Overall, states are in much better positions to do that than they were at the start of the US outbreak in January - another reason for generally increasing numbers in the US that will certainly decline as testing capacity expands and it is getting better everywhere I look.
The IHME model has been updated and changed significantly. You can view death projections for the US and compare these to other countries. The state projections graphs are really good - my take on them is they demonstrate there are no drastic changes occurring with how things are going. This is in contrast to the Trump proclamation yesterday (3000 deaths per day by June) and the doom and gloom media narrative born of it. I do see a range of deaths in the US that at the top are higher than the Fauci 60K number (the bottom is in the 94K the top 150K+ range) so, yeah, more deaths and that is unfortunate but we're not talking about huge increases in the deaths per 100K population. You can see the IHME graphs here:
You can see the data presented in different ways here. They basically say the same thing: there is an elongated plateau in various measures of deaths and case #s in the US, it has reasonable explanations beyond, holy shit we all gonna die in this crazy reopening shit. The bottom line: relax, things are going ok, keep on truck'in.
..... and heh, I found it funny the forum went for basically 24h without a COVID-19 comment in this thread. Tired of talking about COVID-19? Me too ...... I blame this whole fucking mess on osu and ryan, fucking day!
Fine, I get this. Deaths are going to lag so the increases are, in part, explainable. The new cases still rising narrative can't be easily explained away. Is it controversial re-openings? I don't think it is but I'm biased so TIFIW.
One article I read this morning suggests it is because of the differences in local responses to the virus going back to January. Circumstances in New York and NYC are very different from those in bum-fuck Montana or whatever very different set of circumstances you want to apply to any given region. Or, it could be because Americans in general and compared to European counterparts are flouting social distancing and masking guidelines (I really doubt this when I think of the Italians, French and Spaniards, Germans? Swiss? Maybe).
Pundits wonder and worry about why European nation's case #s have peaked and are declining while, outside of NYC (which has peaked and is declining) the US numbers seem to keep slowly rising creating this elongated peak instead of the steep drop seen, for example, in Spain.
I don't think it is rocket science to understand why the US is having this uneven plateau of new case #s compared to other countries. I do think that widely varying early responses to SARS-COV-2 and the post case # rise re-openings is contributing. But,I also think the hugely diverse circumstances in the geography, space and population densities in the US compared to the more homogeneous and more compact nations of Europe is a major player in these comparisons. So, stop comparing. It is what it is in the US. It's going to be different and for good reason.
OK, so, what about China, a huge geographically and demographically diverse country, you ask? What about those fucks? Their government brutally restricted movement early on and if there is a local flare, they repeat that activity. That isn't going to play in the US. Australia and New Zealand? Probably outliers in terms of R(0) and a unified response on recognition of the virus and post case # decrease re-openings. A recognizable fault, IMO, of the US's initial response and now on-going re-openings is the divergent nature of them state by state and even county by county. Fine. We can worry about that latter in lessons learned and a better response to the next pandemic. For now, it is what it is and that ain't gonna change.
TBH, I think in the grand scheme of things, the differences we see today derived from the comparisons the media wants to make and, of course, turn that into a narrative of doom and gloom, the differences are not that big of a deal when you contrast that with the social and economic costs of saying, holly shit, we are in trouble, shutter back up. I say, keep on truck'in. Manage case #s and deaths in the US and state/county wide by continuing to ID new infections, isolate them and and trace their contacts. Overall, states are in much better positions to do that than they were at the start of the US outbreak in January - another reason for generally increasing numbers in the US that will certainly decline as testing capacity expands and it is getting better everywhere I look.
The IHME model has been updated and changed significantly. You can view death projections for the US and compare these to other countries. The state projections graphs are really good - my take on them is they demonstrate there are no drastic changes occurring with how things are going. This is in contrast to the Trump proclamation yesterday (3000 deaths per day by June) and the doom and gloom media narrative born of it. I do see a range of deaths in the US that at the top are higher than the Fauci 60K number (the bottom is in the 94K the top 150K+ range) so, yeah, more deaths and that is unfortunate but we're not talking about huge increases in the deaths per 100K population. You can see the IHME graphs here:
You can see the data presented in different ways here. They basically say the same thing: there is an elongated plateau in various measures of deaths and case #s in the US, it has reasonable explanations beyond, holy shit we all gonna die in this crazy reopening shit. The bottom line: relax, things are going ok, keep on truck'in.
..... and heh, I found it funny the forum went for basically 24h without a COVID-19 comment in this thread. Tired of talking about COVID-19? Me too ...... I blame this whole fucking mess on osu and ryan, fucking day!
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