Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

There was a poll recently that shows older voters are starting to move to Biden. The older voting crowd is much more in favor of keeping the economy closed longer and are worried about it opening too soon. This is tricky for Trump because his base is the total opposite.

Yeah, I've seen some numbers on that. Florida seniors in particular have swung from Trump to Biden.

A FoxNews poll that came out today had Biden up by 8 in both PA and MI

https://www.scribd.com/document/457806519/Fox-News-Poll-April-18-21-2020

[Dr. Strangelove]

Related to yesterday's discussion...Ohio's Urbana University to go bust

More accurately...Urbana already went bust. They merged with Franklin University a couple years ago but operated as a sort of branch campus under their old name. But now they are being shut down entirely.

https://www.dispatch.com/news/20200421/ohiorsquos-urbana-university-to-close-due-to-coronavirus-challenges-low-enrollment

[Jeff Buchanan]

I remain frustrated by what I think is a confusing debate over testing and reopening issues. Of course, the frustration arises because I tilt toward a state/county level controlled reopening and targeted as opposed to universal testing. Meanwhile, the news is filled with dire warnings that it's too early to consider reopening under any circumstances and by-God we need EVERYONE tested. This messaging generates fear and at a federal level that may be exactly what officials want to do to ingrain acceptable distancing and respiratory hygiene behaviors when reopening does occur on a broader basis. So, maybe I get that. I just don't like hearing it and certainly there's plenty of people who do need to hear it.

I don't have access to all the the state's granular data that is probably informing state officials wrt reopening v. shuttering; targeted v. universal testing. I am watching FL's and GA's data closely and especially FL's whose data is very robust; robust enough to inform officials about reopening and what mitigation measures should remain in place while reopening.

GA's governor, Brian Kemp, is getting pilloried for his reopening plans with the president now piling on - which is weird. I can't say GA officials have the level of data I'm seeing reported by FL's Department of Public Health nor do I fully understand how much testing can be done or how much contract tracing can be accomplished by GA's PHS. I do know, you have to pay attention to the details of what Kemp has proposed and, of course, that is not reported outside of local news media and even that seems sparse.

Once Desantis announces his plans to reopen FL, which supposedly will begin in part in Miami-Dade tomorrow (parks, boat ramps, marinas and golf courses) and more broadly on May1st, I expect outrage to be expressed by his political opponents and the national media.

I think these data points in the link below tell us a lot. Unlike the multitude of other measures being totuted as the best, this one is way less noisy than all of the others. The authors think Rt (infectivity over a 24h period) should be the data point that informs open, tighten decisions. I've posted this link before up-thread. Keep in mind the chart is based on Rt - a measure of infectivity of SARS-COV-2 over each 24h period over the last 4w of the US pandemic. Rt, unlike RO, isn't static. It changes daily and is therefor valuable in day to day opening or tightening decisions.

When Rt = 0, and the slope of the spline over-layed on the data points is at or below zero (pointing downward) the virus won't proliferate. The opposite is also true. If officials reopen with Rt > 1 (and the spline is pointing upward) they are inviting proliferation. If Rt = zero or < zero (and the spline is level or pointing downward) proliferation is unlikely.

When the link opens, you'll see the data reported as of today. There are buttons that allow you to view the chart in the past. Click on the button that displays the same data 4w ago. You can draw your own conclusions about Kemp's decision in GA and why I'm supportive of any Desantis decision in FL to step forward and open...... and for me there is more to it than Rt. Sufficient bed/ICU availability, robust testing, ID'ing, quarantining, tracking and tracing has to be in place.

https://rt.live/#learn-more

One other data set that I've been following is a bit more complicated both in the graphic displays and the data itself. This data is in the weeds and if your a data geek you'll like it. If not, don't bother.

https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/...united-states/

[iam416]

I've said it all along -- you will get politically destroyed if you try to re-open. The media has made up their mind. There is virtually no upside. Every death after that gets blamed on you. That's it.

The only way to do it without the Media and Ds blasting you is by consensus. That's the situation.

Choosing between A or B and the politics of it mean you can't have a legitimate and much needed policy discussion about B. Ever.

[CGVT]

It's just as much the fact that the poles are saying that Trump's older voters don't want to open up. He's scrambling. It was a savvy move politically to throw the opening back on the governors to try to shift can't win prospect back to them, but he zeroed out his good move by his stupidity and tweets of Liberate!.
The fucker just can't handle prosperity.

[iam416]

Well, correct. I mean, I think I said exactly that. The Federal guidelines for re-opening are solid and, TBH, so is the plan to allow governors to assess their situations on a state-by-state basis. He never shuts up, so there was no chance of that holding. His messaging, as I've opined before, has been his weakness. The actual actions are fine.

But my point still gets down to the politics at issue. Any state that wants to open is going to get pilloried by the NATIONAL media and NATIONAL Ds. Georgia will be a NATIONAL whipping boy. Florida is a NATIONAL whipping boy. And what the MEDIA and Ds do is blame PDJT for state openings because, well, he could prevent it. Nevermind, of course, that the Media and Ds would go absolutely batshit crazy if PDJT used his Executive powers to force states to open. However, if does so to force states to stay closed then huzzah.

So, while I sympathize with the assessment that PDJT is failing on messaging, the larger fact remains -- he's going to get blamed no matter what. That's the game. And the only way not to get blamed is to keep everything closed. If Georgia opens, then the Media and the Ds will put it on Kemp AND PDJT.

There is absolutely NO CHANCE of a honest policy discussion until there is a consensus. And there won't be. The Media and Ds have PDJT over a barrel and they're going to keep him there. This is political gold.

[Ghengis Jon]

The Rs are equally responsible for the A vs B "discussion" blockage. Blindly following a hostile, reality detached pathological liar at the top does not move the needle.

The problem that prevents consensus is partisan cling-to-power/influence-at-all-costs attitude. So long as we the people keep electing shitheads that maintain a no compromise attitude, we have no one to blame but ourselves. Not the media, not Putin's cock holster, not the Rs, not the Ds. The voters.

[iam416]

The Rs are equally responsible for the A vs B "discussion" blockage. Blindly following a hostile, reality detached pathological liar at the top does not move the needle.

No. Just no. In this case the Ds have the massive rhetorical upper hand -- BLOOD ON YOUR HANDS. Whether we ever get to a rational policy discussion about Catastrophe A or Catastrophe B is entirely up to the Ds and MEDIA. Period.

The Rs had similar leverage after 9/11. It was extremely difficult to risk standing up to policy initiatives designed to "keep America safe." That was a one-way street conversation.

Part of me doesn't blame the Ds (and their Media allies) at all. This is politics. You never waste a good tragedy and, by god, the Ds sure as fuck aren't wasting this one. That's the game.

Part of me would like to see a real policy discussion and I do blame the Ds for that. But, that's a pipe dream. So, the reality of the situation is that the Ds and Media are pushing their leverage for all its worth. That's the game.

But, make no mistake -- this isn't some sort of "equal responsibility" bullshit situation.

[Ghengis Jon]

We agree to disagree. I see equal portions of blame. You put as much faith in the media as I put in Trump. If the minority share media sucked Trump's teeny tiny as much as Fox does, everything would be unicorns and rainbows, right?


"This is politics. You never waste a good tragedy and, by god, the Ds sure as fuck aren't wasting this one. That's the game." No, that's the problem.


And yes, all presidents get blamed for all bad things that happen on their watch. This is news? You know this going into the office. Don't like it? Resign.

[iam416]

Yeah, I just don't think "everybody is equally to blame (or substantially equally)" happens all that much, and that claim is a very superficial way to avoid any real thought and analysis of the circumstances.

So, yeah...very much agree to disagree.

[THE_WIZARD_]

If you reopen the economy/states...people will die...and you will have economic recovery. Keep it closed...people will die...and we will continue this unnecessary economic misery. The D's and MSM seem to prefer the latter. Fuck them. Agenda driven fucktards.

Open the fucking economy/states. Now.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The potential for bad press will prevent a serious discussion of reopening and potentially reopening itself? If I read your posts, talent, that's what it sounds like you are saying. I don't think that's what you mean.

Look, I will guarantee you that serious discussions are going on in FL and at the local/county level. I don't know but I would suspect they are going on within most states. You know this.

I'd like to think decision makers will not be persuaded from making rational re-opening decisions for fear of bad press or political opponents gaining leverage. I agree with you that decision makers will publicly appear to build consensus for whatever they choose to do but, my take is that they will do what they need to do based on the data and mostly within federal guidance and then work to control any evolving narrative about it.

You could say this example is a mirror image of what might happen on reopening decisions but it serves my purpose. The Miami-Dade Co. Mayor had his hand forced to reopen public marinas last week after his decision to close them was correctly and very publicly derided. It didn't help his position when individuals filed law suits seeking Marinas and boat ramps to be re-opened. So, what did he do? He called a town hall meeting last Friday and sought input on reopening golf courses, public parks, marinas and boat ramps. There was no mention of the shit he took for the closings. No mention of the law suits. My understanding is that at this going through the motions town hall meeting, it was a about 70/30 to reopen these facilities. Tomorrow is the day I am told they will reopen. Political cover. An appearance of consensus forming, control of the narrative, all present. It is the way of things.

This is how it's going to go down with reopenings. I really do believe the cost of keeping businesses shuttered to local economies, to unemployment roles to tax revenues for county and state government, all sorts of hugely negative consequences, are coming to the fore. I'll freely admit this might be wishful thinking on my part - a form of bias. I don't think it is. The reality of the potential for economic collapse is a mother. No elected officials want that kind of blood on his hands either.

As goolsih as it sounds, the economic costs of shuttering are moving toward easily trumping the increasingly unlikely scenarios where millions more will die, hospitals will be swamped and case numbers will skyrocket if localities reopen. Those are just not sensible outcomes given what we've already seen about models and projections and what we've learned about SARS-COV-2..

[THE_WIZARD_]

Reminds me of when Barry Switzer would be on a recruiting trip...he would tell the recruit...

"...if you come to OU...we will compete for conference titles...national titles...and win a ton of games...and if you go to Brand X school...OU will compete for conference titles...national titles...and win a ton of games..."

Your choice. People are going to die. You cannot escape exposure to this virus. Why cut off your nose to spite your face. Why do some want to? Agenda. It's sickening.

[THE_WIZARD_]

We need leaders right now to step in the face of adversity and do what is best for our country...not save their political asses...or worse...make political gain out of it.

Disgusting.

[iam416]

The potential for bad press will prevent a serious discussion of reopening and potentially reopening itself? If I read your posts, talent, that's what it sounds like you are saying. I don't think that's what you mean.

There is a political cudgel for those who want to re-open. If you re-open you're on the hook for the deaths that follow. Period. That's the politics of it. The way through the politics is a consensus.

Now, perhaps the politicians who are responsible for these decisions and the politicians who want to see those politicians out of power are both going to forget that they're politicians and politics won't matter. I don't think that's the case.

As for the media, it is my opinion that the MSM has definitively sided with "keep things closed" and if you go against that you're going to be on the hook for any deaths that follow. And those won't be hard stories to write.

So, as long as you have Governors saying -- "it's too early!" then the Governors who say "no, it's not!" are going to own that decision in a big-time way.