Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

I don't disagree with your main point, DSL.

I think he's not real well informed best case, that he's an idiot worst case. Kemp more than likely stumbled into this decision.

In support of the path GA is pursuing,, I'm seeing data that suggests that where the denominator is known, while GR can be significant, implications for CFR/IFR, hospitalization rates, vent utilization - all proxies of disease progression/severity - are strikingly lower than early models predicted.

These are coming from cruise ships, USN ships, prisons, homeless shelters. Can these case studies be extrapolated to the general population? I don't know.

What I do know is that we're facing irrevocable damage to the US economy if we wait for perfect data and testing for everyone. Choice A or B. Kemp, uninformed puppet or idiot, has chosen. Now we get to see what happens over the next 2w.

TBH, I'm cheering for the anti-opening crowd to be as wrong as the models that predicted an overwhelmed hospital system, ventilator shortages, ICU bed space shortages, and 2.5m deaths in the US alone.

[Ghengis Jon]

I'm a little puzzled by Trump said on Monday he will suspend all immigration into the US temporarily through an executive order in response to the coronavirus and to protect American jobs.

Temp closing of the borders a month ago would have been distasteful but reasonable as a response to the outbreak. But now? Seems like this is just a stunt, using the virus to justify barring immigrants, laughably to "save American jobs". I would have thought that this sort of nonsense pandering to his mentally ill supporters would have been a bit closer to Election Day.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-immigration/trump-says-he-will-suspend-all-immigration-into-u-s-over-coronavirus-idUSKBN223085

[Jeff Buchanan]

Nope, this is all part and parcel of his campaign for re-election. He has a base to rally. This latest announcement - closing boarders, nothing more than a way to enhance his claims that he's eliminated the flow of illegals into the US, adds to his earlier activities involving tweeting support to FREE (insert state).

It's also an effective way to distract the press from attacking his response to and management of SARS-COV-2 in the US.

[Ghengis Jon]

That makes sense. As easy as it is to manipulate the press, it's surprising that an attention whore like you know who would be so terrible at it.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Until the executive order is issued, the tweet is meaningless. And the EO hasn't been issued. And most of what it'll do is already taking place. Jeff is correct. It's red meat to the base and to try and make the national conversation about illegal immigration for just one day because he's feeling the heat from criticism and falling poll numbers.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I raised this possibility a few weeks ago. I know the study's by a Chinese university but it seems to be the first evidence that there ARE multiple COVID-19 strains and the version that first went through Europe and then to NYC is possibly much more severe than the version Seattle, California, and most of the country got.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study

[Jeff Buchanan]

This morning, I took a dive into understanding GA's governor, Brian Kemp's, decision to "reopen" GA's economy and what looks like a similar "reopening" in FL's by governor Ron Desantis to start early next week. Both are already taking heat from the press and, in Kemp's case, from local mayors. Here are some facts:

Both states through 40d, have daily, new case GRs < 1.07 (what epidemiologists indicate signals control). GA and FL have GRs of 1.03 (good control). Most, not all, of the states in the US, each with varying days since first case, have similarly low GRs

These latest GRs compare with past GRs for these two states of 1.12 at day 25.

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Both states have adequate beds, ICUs and ventilators to handle a surge of cases should that ensue with "reopening."

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida

I can't find this level of granular data for GA but for FL there have been 272K tests and 27K + (10%). Hospitilization rate is 6.7% (not age stratified). 41% of all hospitalizations are in the age group 65-75; 79% are over 55. 93% of FL's deaths are over 55. Overall stats for GA and FL have been almost the same. GA is a week behind FL.

https://floridadisaster.org/globalassets/covid19/dailies/covid-19-data---daily-report-2020-04-20-1640.pdf

The CDC does not report by state at it's web site but you don't have to be an epidemiologist to understand that nation wide, all the trends the CDC is tracking indicate a decline in both the presence and severity of COVID-19.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Finally, it's important to examine the details of what Kemp has announced wrt "reopenings" (and what Desantis will probably do next week).Kemp's announcement when you read the whole thing, does follow the US guidelines for businesses/employers - very specifically, in fact. e.g., social distancing must be maintained, face coverings in public (GA never mandated only recommended), limited capacity in businesses, expanded sanitation, etc. IOW, devil's in the details but the press wants to lead readers to believe all of this is foolish.

I don't think it is. Choice A or B. Both shitty but it's looking more and more like opening needs to begin albeit in a controlled way if the US economy isn't to be destroyed in a way that recovery takes 3 years...... and we may already be there in certain sectors (energy - oil, tourism). I also believe the data can be used by either side in this debate to make a case. That gets us right back to the risk benefit question that, by it's nature, leaves the emotions (no persons must die for businesses to reopen) out of the equation. Yes, case numbers will probably increase. Yes, deaths will too. Hopefully, those can be controlled with increased targeted testing when hot spots emerge and local level PHS involvement.

[iam416]

Any governor who proposes re-opening is running the risk of getting blasted, by the media has a particular hate on for Kemp and DeSantis.

No one is going to propose a total, complete re-open ("life back to normal"). Every re-open will involve something like the Federal approach. From a media perspective, it'll be interesting to see which states get reported on as implicitly throwing the doors open and which states are reported on as cautiously re-opening.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The press is unequivocally untrustworthy on reopening reporting .... it has as much to do with political bias as it does with not fleshing out the facts and details.

I'm sure editors hound reporters for quick takes. That is just bad news for the public who, to an unfortunate degree, reads them and trusts their accuracy.

There's also too many drive by takes on social media - another huge problem. My wife showed me post on her FB time-line (I think that's what you call it) that read:

If we shuttered the news media for 30d, 30% of the world's problems would disappear.

[Whitley]

Here is a question for everyone and it is a legit question for all. The stock market has a "circuit breaker" in which of stocks go down too fast in a certain period of time trading is paused for a time. The idea is that it lets everyone catch their breath so a panic doesn't ensue. I assume most people think it is a good thing.

If it is a good thing for the stock market---why would it not be a good thing for the economy as a whole? Have a circuit breaker/pause button on the economy if certain markers are hit. We can debate what those markers would be at a later date. I am more interested (right now) in the idea itself atm.

And sort of along the same lines---If you where one of TPTB (the powers that be) what would you do/have done going back to the point of when the stimulus being past?

[iam416]

Have a circuit breaker/pause button on the economy if certain markers are hit. We can debate what those markers would be at a later date

The markers aren't the issue --as noted, those are debatable. The question is what is the circuit breaker/pause button. It's a remarkably easy mechanism for the stock market. You halt trading. Easy. There is no easy mechanism like that for the economy. It's not really a question that can be answered or discussed absent proposed mechanisms. The markers are insignificant; the mechanism is dispositive.

[AlabamAlum]

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'd have to know more about the measures you'd use to pop the breaker on the economy as well as what your end-game might be to offer thoughts about such a plan.

I'm also not sure there are parallels between measures of stock-market decline and measures of economic decline. Would a certain GPD decline, for example, key the Fed to take monetary policy steps; the US government to take fiscal policy steps. That's already in happened and we'll find out how that works.

Re the stimulus: the Fed acted exactly like it is supposed to very early on in the crisis. I would not have advocated for anything different.

The Congress' past stimulus activities, along with it's current activities, OTH, could have been better. I've already mentioned that Germany, for example, stimulated their private pharmaceutical, laboratory and medical equipment sectors by directing large sums toward production of goods and services. They didn't nationalize anything under thier versions of a war powers act. This is top down stimulus to key sectors to address managing the COVID threat that would ultimately and hopefully allow people to get back to work - that's exactly what's happening there.

The US provided bottom up stimulus in the case of free money and continues to plan to do this without the likelihood that the money would and will continue to be spent on consumer goods. I made the point that the banks will benefit most from this approach by receiving loan payments (all types) on time for at least a month. Retail, restaurant and service sector small businesses aren't going to benefit and many will close up shop permanently in the next few weeks.

The administration should have used the war powers act much sooner than it did or taken steps like several EU nations, e.g., Germany did, to make sure the resources were available and properly staged for the hardest hit areas to get the supplies the needed to manage COVID. I don't need to mention the free-for-all that actually happened. If there is a single significant failure of PDJT in addressing COVID, this is it.

Congress underestimated what would be required for the PPP and small business loans and allowed businesses that were not significantly damaged by COVID or had the wherewithal to quickly apply for and receive loans that drained the pool before little guys could get to it. I'd call it working in the ethical gray area for these businesses that advantaged themselves, IMO, unfairlyThat should have been anticipated and controlled by law. .... and I don't know the sordid details; These will come out in a post mortem of this thing.

The administration failed to take the necessary leadership steps to facilitate the easy distribution of PPP funds, loans/grants and UIB. Instead they left it up to private sector financial institutions and woefully unprepared state unemployment agencies to make the distributions. It was another free-for-all. This could have easily been accomplished much like the IRS distributed stimulous checks - direct deposit. States could have received bulk amounts in the form of federal grants, locally calculated business payrolls from state tax data and paid those businesses directly. The same thing could have been done for UIB. That process, as it actually went down and continues to go down, was and is a mess.

[lineygoblue]

I wish we could have a 'circuit breaker' on politics. By that, I mean a switch that would kick in when something like a global pandemic comes along, that makes it illegal for politicians to make decisions based on politics. The only decisions that would be allowed would be whatever is best for the people.

I'm a dyed-in-the-wool Republican/conservative, but I'll be one of the first in line to say that our Democrat governor Gretchen Whitmer has made some very good decisions regarding the shelter in place policies she's enacted here in Michigan. I believe she got out in front of it, consulted the experts in the field, and made some excellent decisions. I'm no fan of many other of her policies, (her 170% gas tax increase proposal among them) but in this case, she deserves credit for handling the situation about as well as it can be handled. I doubt anyone with a (R) after their name could have done better.

.... I'll show myself out now ....

[Dr. Strangelove]

Scott Gottlieb was on CNBC again this morning and he questioned why gyms, barber shops, and beauty salons were among the first tier of businesses being reopened. As he argued those are businesses that both A) Involve people being in close contact with each other and in the case of gyms, have lots of heavy breathing and moisture in the air B) Do not make major contributions to the national economy. He felt opening up commercial offices and certain retail would make a bigger difference to the economy.