Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

A nice collection of summaries re undercount data -- https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/...-cases-likely/

This remains the most critical piece of information we don't have. It's beyond critical, IMO -- it's essential to any decision concerning whether to move forward or not.

Under no circumstances are we anywhere near being through this thing. But, if we're only at 10-15% detection rates then that changes assessments for at least (a) how dangerous this is; and (b) how much longer we have to go. For (a) that would suggest less than 1% CFR. For (b), that would put us 3-4 months away from nearing herd immunity.

[froot loops]

A nice collection of summaries re undercount data -- https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/...-cases-likely/

This remains the most critical piece of information we don't have. It's beyond critical, IMO -- it's essential to any decision concerning whether to move forward or not.

Under no circumstances are we anywhere near being through this thing. But, if we're only at 10-15% detection rates then that changes assessments for at least (a) how dangerous this is; and (b) how much longer we have to go. For (a) that would suggest less than 1% CFR. For (b), that would put us 3-4 months away from nearing herd immunity.

That's a good article spelling it out, hopefully we'll get more info on a larger scale soon.

[Tom W]

I reiterate -- FUCK CHINA. https://www.nationalreview.com/the-m...iruss-origins/

I realize, as the commentary correctly notes, that the origins of the pandemic are of no consequence to treating it now. But, the orgins are important to preventing future pandemics. And, I reiterate, FUCK CHINA.

Well, yes - and the Chinese response back is most certainly, well, FUCK YOU BACK. The scenario presented is entirely plausible, but the veiled question is just HOW accidental were the events behind the origin?- Only a pure conspiracy theorist, or Tom Clancy, would say that the Chinese were malicious in their recklessness, but they are a calculating sort. If they wanted to unleash something that caused widespread panic, chaos and economic disaster without being deadly enough to convince everyone that it was a strategically deployed WMD, I'm not sure that you could come up with a better plan,

[iam416]

The thing in that NRO articles that I linked that I found encouraging was the suggestion that outdoor spread is rare. Of course, it's a non-peer reviewed Chinese study, so, yeah. But it'd be great if we could get to the point where we're ok to go to parks and playgrounds and even youth sports this summer.

[froot loops]

My youngest daughter and I have been going to this park daily for her quest to become the female Steph Curry but two days ago the gate was cable tied so we had to make an audible to a worse court.

[Hannibal]

The thing in that NRO articles that I linked that I found encouraging was the suggestion that outdoor spread is rare. Of course, it's a non-peer reviewed Chinese study, so, yeah. But it'd be great if we could get to the point where we're ok to go to parks and playgrounds and even youth sports this summer.

Of course its rare. It's incredibly rare and this was as obvious as the shittiness of Rich Rodriguez's defensive coaching more than a month ago. If you could easily catch the disease at the playground then the whole world would have gotten it during the two+ months between when the virus was discovered and when people seriously started going on lockdown. Every airplane coming out of China would have been full of it by New Year's at the latest. Every airplane coming out of every airport woud have been full of it by mid January. Not to mention football playoff games, NBA games, NHL games. Subways, Buses. Trains. Crowded city streets in world ghettoes. Maybe even college football bowl games since the virus was likely spreading out of China before Christmas. Literally tens of billions of opportunities per day for the virus to transmit itself.

In Ohio, you have to show very obvious symptoms to get tested and about 88% of the tests come back negative. 88% of the select few who show symptoms don't have it. I think that for the country as a whole, it's around 80%.

[Whitley]

Tell us how you really feel about China Talent...

I think he really likes them, because he keeps saying he wants to fuck them

[THE_WIZARD_]

I think he really likes them, because he keeps saying he wants to fuck them

disturbing

[Ghengis Jon]

Heheheh. Hey Wiz. Have I got an opportunity for you. The sister of my brother's wife is one of the presenters on CNN. I hear that they're going to do some stories on SBA loan recipients affected by corona. Wanna be on CNN?


Think of the spectacle of prime time Wiz coast to coast

[THE_WIZARD_]

Well I would be an intriguing interview...how does she feel about being told to STFU?

[Ghengis Jon]

I'm sure she's heard it before.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is a quick read ...... it's more of the same narrative that has emerged more prominently today than in the last few weeks that if we open back up new case numbers and deaths will sky-rocket.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-do-experts-actually-measure-the-impact-of-social-distancing-2020-04-16?mod=newsviewer_click

Here's the first comment that follows the article that just appeared. Watch it get ham-blasted:

It would be useful to ask people who go to the hospital and are tested positive to share their phone data so we can look at that data and see if it tells us anything. As to these lockdowns, the question is do they really work, especially in a large city where piling people on top of family members is likely no better than letting them pile on to each other going about their business. As to these models, most are garbage. Then there is the "F" you get for this concept that if you remove these questionably effective measures that suddenly we just spike again. The reality is that if we have been effective (this is a big if) many people who had the virus will have shed the virus by now. That means once we re-open the number of people who actually have the virus will be much much lower than it was before the shutdowns. Further, once we go out again there will be social distancing, countermeasures (masks) and hand washing which by themselves likely made most of the difference, not staying inside. Then there is the reality that those who have been infected will have some immunity. Given that in New York it is highly likely way way more than 15% of the population already has had the virus (my guess it is likely close to half by now), the transmission rate of the virus will be a lot lot lower than the pre-shutdown level.

[Ghengis Jon]

What virus? Full speed ahead seizing private citizens' land for the Vanity Wall.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN21Y2DR



And on a much lighter note, if you watch the BBC or BBC America, one of their weather presenters adds drums to the BBC theme.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-england-manchester-52297848/weather-presenter-goes-viral-drumming-to-bbc-news-theme

[iam416]

Meanwhile the SBA program is running out of money and the Ds refuse to do a straight-forward refunding of the program (Payment Protection Plan) -- which the Rs are ready and willing to do. The Ds, of course, need to get all their identity-politics bullshit in the bill so they refuse to help Americans in need. It's almost like they'd rather see more economic hardship.

Senator Sinema has even recognized how ludicrous the Ds are behaving. Will the Media call them on it? Or will they find a way to blame McConnell? Heh. Rhetorical questions.

[Hannibal]

It would be useful to ask people who go to the hospital and are tested positive to share their phone data so we can look at that data and see if it tells us anything. As to these lockdowns, the question is do they really work, especially in a large city where piling people on top of family members is likely no better than letting them pile on to each other going about their business. As to these models, most are garbage. Then there is the "F" you get for this concept that if you remove these questionably effective measures that suddenly we just spike again. The reality is that if we have been effective (this is a big if) many people who had the virus will have shed the virus by now. That means once we re-open the number of people who actually have the virus will be much much lower than it was before the shutdowns. Further, once we go out again there will be social distancing, countermeasures (masks) and hand washing which by themselves likely made most of the difference, not staying inside. Then there is the reality that those who have been infected will have some immunity. Given that in New York it is highly likely way way more than 15% of the population already has had the virus (my guess it is likely close to half by now), the transmission rate of the virus will be a lot lot lower than the pre-shutdown level.

And then there's also the small sample of locales that either did not go into full social distancing or that delayed their social distancing significantly and are still far better off for some reason than New York, Spain, or Ohio. I have mentioned Sweden and Florida, but Russia is another example. They actually share a border with China and they have fewer cases as an entire country than the state of New Jersey (although their cases are growing quickly, unlike Swe and FL). And then there are also insanely crowded places like India with piss poor sanitation and overall health that have experienced no huge outbreak despite being a gigantic septic sardine can. That's a country perfectly primed for a deadly epidemic. In India, "Social Distancing" means that you make sure that somebody is at least ten feet away from you before you take a shit in the street.

Speaking of India, I'm guessing that's one of many examples of places where more people will legitimately die from this year's economic hardships than from Covid-19. Income shortages that lead to severe food and medicine shortages are going to kill lots of people outside of the first world this year.