Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Whitley]

Trump to give guidelines on opening the economy tomorrow, thinks some states will open back up before May 1.

I have no faith in Trump to have any sort of safe guidelines.

[Ghengis Jon]

He wants to endanger people to bolster his re-election bid? Great. On May 15th (incubation period past 5-1), anyone abiding by his guidelines who contracts covid loses all insurance coverage (why should they pay for Trump idiocy?) with Trump agreeing to be personally responsible for all medical and family support costs. Every person that dies of covid, contracted through contact with someone following the Trump Cult guidelines, Trump is charged with one count of negligent homicide or involuntary manslaughter.

Dr Fauci 's return to work opinion carries far more weight than President Scumbag's unhinged screeds.

[Ghengis Jon]

Here's the protesters that showed up in Lansing. Nothing scares the covid virus more than seeing Cletus and Clem with their AR-15s.



Capture.JPG

[iam416]

Trump to give guidelines on opening the economy tomorrow, thinks some states will open back up before May 1.

They're going to be consistent with what everyone else is doing.

And he's already said that it's up to the States. Some are STILL open (and rationally and reasonably so).

[THE_WIZARD_]

22 Million jobless claims in 4 weeks.

22 Fucking Million.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Today's news is rife with articles on the absolute requirement for massive testing before any reopenings. Preventing the massive scale of testing that experts say is needed are the processing back-logs when supplies are available and the bottlenecks in the supply chain for chemicals, swabs and pipettes that make up test kits and processing protocols. This isn't a Trump/US only problem. It's a global problem.

In that back-drop in the US are reports from Japan that did very well initially containing COVID but is now back to square one with national emergency declarations in most prefectures and re-imposition of mitigation and containment measures that had been lifted two weeks ago. It is postulated that Japan wasn't strict enough to start with and broadly reopened the country too soon.

The first question that has to be dealt with, is massive testing an absolute requirement to reopen? Experts are saying it is and cautioning countries proceeding in that direction to move more slowly. I took a position here that the requirement for perfect data to inform public policy will not be available in the short term, likewise, neither will the scale of testing experts say is needed to insure safety in any reopening scheme. In both situations, leadership is going to have to take risks. Some countries have recognized this reality.

What about Japan, whose case numbers took off starting last week? I believe it is impossible to precisely determine why new COVID cases popped up and community spread was reintroduced. It's likely multifactoral with less than ideal social distancing practices and limited testing both potentially contributing. SK, OTH, did massive testing and contact tracing of positives involving a high percentage of it's population and that country's control of the virus is believed to have led the world in effectiveness.

So, from this comparison, one can conclude, yep, we need massive testing of all types here in the US before any state or metro area can safely reopen, right? I'll take a contrarian position on that. Given the reality that testing and the processing of those tests at the scale needed in the US isn't available and likely won't be for at least a couple of months, yet we are facing significant ongoing and future damage to local economies and labor markets by continuing strict mitigation measures, leaders should start to examine options.

Targeted testing is one of them. I believe knowing the COVID status of every American, like some are suggesting, is unrealistic. The goal should be maintaining a low level of infection so as to avoid exceeding the capacity of HC systems on a local basis ..... once again, a local, and IMO, achievable operational goal. While it would be nice, I don't think we're going to have effective phone apps for contact tracing - I read today that buy in where countries like Singapore deployed them has been at the 20-40% level where 60% buy in is required. Until we have a vaccine and/or appropriately effective therapeutics to lower the CFR, the virus and unappealing deaths will be with us. Models that have demonstrated huge case numbers and deaths have been strikingly wrong. There are other options as well: enforcing social distancing and respiratory etiquette guidelines along with obtaining buy-in by local populations through public service announcement. It's time depending, of course, on local conditions.

At some point, we're going to have point of care tests, possibly home tests widely available but it's not available now and while this can be a goal going forward, it's not logical to wait until all that is in place to reopen at some level, such level to be determined locally.

[Hannibal]

The IMF predicts that the US economy will shrink by 6% this year. That's about $1.3 trillion of wealth destroyed. Evaporated into nothingness. Not to mention whatever we'll have to do to make up for the extra two trillion of money that we are going to print as part of economic remediation.

[iam416]

It's worth noting, Hanni, that to the extent our "wealth" is tied to foreign markets/globalism, that's fucked no matter what we do. This isn't a matter of the US just say, welp, back to business and it's all fine and dandy. So, no matter what we do in terms of "opening/closed" -- I think a significant portion of that lost wealth is just lost - beyond our control.

My point isn't that re-opening and such wouldn't improve economic conditions; my point is that of that 6% number some non-negligble portion is baked in.

[froot loops]

The models that predicted huge cases numbers were based on really doing nothing at all. It would be like if the society responded like they did to the flu in 1918.

There was a huge range in the model, the US as a whole ramped up the hospital beds and enforced probably the near best case scenario of mitigation procedures even if it was staggered and slipshod. We are still clipping along at an awful 2k a day rate. We're not out of the woods yet, but the open up is going to be slow. It is much easier to shut it down than open it back up.

[Hannibal]

It's worth noting, Hanni, that to the extent our "wealth" is tied to foreign markets/globalism, that's fucked no matter what we do. This isn't a matter of the US just say, welp, back to business and it's all fine and dandy. So, no matter what we do in terms of "opening/closed" -- I think a significant portion of that lost wealth is just lost - beyond our control.

My point isn't that re-opening and such wouldn't improve economic conditions; my point is that of that 6% number some non-negligble portion is baked in.

Understood. It's not under our control completely, and to be fair, a significant portion of that is legitimately justified and will stay that way. The economics around at-risk groups will stay poor for a while (sell your BIll Knapp's stock!)

[THE_WIZARD_]

On a positive note...my SBA money came in for both of my businesses...so there is that.

Drop.
In.
Bucket.

[iam416]

NYC and mass transit folks -- no need to fear the subway, no need to fear the subway, no need to fear the subway, the subway seemed to play a major role in corona spread. https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...t-the-station/

NFS. Fucking PDJT has blood on his hands.

[iam416]

I reiterate -- FUCK CHINA. https://www.nationalreview.com/the-m...iruss-origins/

I realize, as the commentary correctly notes, that the origins of the pandemic are of no consequence to treating it now. But, the orgins are important to preventing future pandemics. And, I reiterate, FUCK CHINA.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Tell us how you really feel about China Talent...

[THE_WIZARD_]

Think of the rock and roll possibilities after this is over...Ted Nugent could do a Bat Scratch Fever tour...and Ozzy...whoa...think of his options...