Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[froot loops]

Talent -- I think that people are going to get back to normal very quickly if they are allowed to. If there is football this fall, people will pack the stadiums against the advice of all of the "experts". People will refill restaurants immediately and they will even get back to seeing shitty Marvel movies. People will keep the handshake custom alive, despite the advice of Dr. Fauci, who will perhaps progress to recommending that we all get our hands amputated to avoid the temptation to shake hands. After all, you don't really need your hands, do you?

Do you think new hospitals are magically going to appear? Where are you going to take care of all of these patients if everything is magically lifted and everyone goes back to normal.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Begone froot...before someone drops a house on you too...

[Whitley]

Well if cases have not significantly dropped by mid-summer I don't think you'll have to worry about attending any fall sporting events, unless high school football in Iowa is your thing.

But that said, even if the games are played, if there hasn't been an effective treatment developed by the fall I'm pretty much steering clear any situation where I'm packed shoulder to shoulder with people for a while. I think there's plenty of people like me. "Back to normal as if nothing's changed" is a fantasy without medical breakthroughs.

Yeah by mid June we should know if it is like the flu in that way.

[froot loops]

Lets hope it does die down with warmer weather.

[Whitley]

Lets hope it does die down with warmer weather.

That would be some real good news.

I have a feeling that the MI legislature is going to pin their ears back and not extend Gov. Whitmer's authority, and if they can I think they will open everything up starting on 5/1.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Talk of a deal to cut production didn't help for very long. Oil's hit an 18-year low below $20 off of news that the world is rapidly running out of storage space. Demand expected to set a record for year-over-year decline.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/oil-glut-may-overwhelm-storage-despite-opec-cut-iea-says

[froot loops]

That would be some real good news.

I have a feeling that the MI legislature is going to pin their ears back and not extend Gov. Whitmer's authority, and if they can I think they will open everything up starting on 5/1.

They will slowly open stuff up after 5/1, it won't be a total lift. Whitmer was already talking about it and as a state I believe it has plateaued at least. Even if they lifted everything up, it will be deserted out there.

[Whitley]

They will slowly open stuff up after 5/1, it won't be a total lift. Whitmer was already talking about it and as a state I believe it has plateaued at least. Even if they lifted everything up, it will be deserted out there.

I know, right now I have no desire to come back at all to work. Am a bit paranoid about bringing this home to my folks.

They need a ton of supplies and way more testing before they can start opening up.

[Tom W]

They will slowly open stuff up after 5/1, it won't be a total lift. Whitmer was already talking about it and as a state I believe it has plateaued at least. Even if they lifted everything up, it will be deserted out there.

it's probably not coincidence that the beginning of May is when people in Michigan really start heading out to golf courses, garden shops and waterways. Also, the economic and psychological effects of the lockdown could become too tangible to dismiss as being for some "greater good".

[Whitley]

it's probably not coincidence that the beginning of May is when people in Michigan really start heading out to golf courses, garden shops and waterways. Also, the economic and psychological effects of the lockdown could become too tangible to dismiss as being for some "greater good".

Yeah, they as long as get their round in that is all that matters, a few more people dying doesn't matter.

[Ghengis Jon]

With the start of the 2020 CFB season still undecided, we can all console ourselves in the meantime with one of these discount toys.


crap.JPG

[Tom W]

Hey, lots of people die on golf courses. It's more hazardous than people think.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I know, right now I have no desire to come back at all to work. Am a bit paranoid about bringing this home to my folks.

They need a ton of supplies and way more testing before they can start opening up.

There's no way to soft sell this Whit. I get your concern about your folks. There are ways to protect yourself to significantly lower your risk of getting infected. At some point in the future, the probability of becoming infected will be known but it's not known now. If you do become infected, members of your household can take steps to stop it from spreading to them. The information of how to do that is out there.

We do know something about R0 - an infected person will likely infect 2-3.5 others. In a room full of 100 people, none of them taking any precautions, at worst 35 will become infected and 65 won't. If you distance and mask up, my guess is that R0 is < 1.

My intent here is not to minimize the risks but rather to encourage you and others not to become immobilized by the threat of COVID. I think the panic button has been over-used and that in 6 -12 months we'll not only understand Sars-COV-2 better, therapeutics and pharmacologic mitigation strategies will be available but we'll also find that cost/benefit analysis of mitigation and containment v. the economy will demonstrate the steps taken and their costs were too high given the damage done to the US and regional economies and the trillions of dollars in US government debt taken on to to it. JMO and YMMV.

The good news is that in future bouts with this bugger - and almost all the experts I'm reading on this subject believe it will return seasonally or periodically - we'll need to do a lot less shutting down and physical separation. Part of that will come from lessons learned about preparedness, testing and tracking. Part of will come from learning to not lean on the panic button next time.

WRT a "ton more" stuff needed "before we can start opening up" ...... if we wait for that to materialize, to be completely ready - probably another 4-8 weeks - the number of business bankruptcies, and permanently unemployed will prove to be a cost so high that a sustained economic recession, a year or longer, will ensue. You're already seeing European nations recognizing this and choosing to gradually reopen their economies and take whatever risks, imagined or real, that come along with that approach. There's some decisions being made that are not completely informed by the data because it's not there yet. OTH, countries doing the reopening know their economies can't continue to be shuttered and their citizens told to stay at home.

I'd say, we are 10-14 days from that reckoning in FL and when and how FL goes about reopening is going to be different in the more densely populated, S. FL tri-county area than it is in central FL and elsewhere throughout the state. It's coming everywhere in the US, though, at different times and with different looks. I know I'll be ready for it here in Fort Lauderdale, take steps to protect myself and others when I go our after it does happen and not be immobilized with worry.

[iam416]

Jim Geraghty with a breakdown of where we currently stand with hospital capacity -- https://www.nationalreview.com/the-m...ons-hospitals/

If you don't read it, the gist is that we're *currently* in excellent shape when it comes to capacity. Even the Brooklyin hospital and the Detroit hospital that were, for a few days, really up against it, are operating at "manageable" levels. In NY, e.g., they ramped up capacity to 90,000 beds and have only had 18,000 hospitalized in the past few days. He does note that even with capacity in good shape, staff is still an issue -- that could be the rate-limiter.

However, he rightly concludes that the excess capacity is more than enough to handle the situation as is, but it's not clear if the excess capcity is sufficient to deal with another "surge."

That said, it seems clear to me that our "bought time" has produced a significant increase in hospital capacity that can better handle an increased influx of patients.

[lineygoblue]

Well if cases have not significantly dropped by mid-summer I don't think you'll have to worry about attending any fall sporting events, unless high school football in Iowa is your thing.

But that said, even if the games are played, if there hasn't been an effective treatment developed by the fall I'm pretty much steering clear any situation where I'm packed shoulder to shoulder with people for a while. I think there's plenty of people like me. "Back to normal as if nothing's changed" is a fantasy without medical breakthroughs.

If U-M was to announce today that the football team was going to hold an 'open scrimmage' at the stadium tomorrow at 12 Noon against Adrian College, I think several thousand folks would head out to the stadium, even with the Covid risk in the area, and watch the scrimmage. Washtenaw County is one of the hardest hit counties in Michigan, and on any given football Saturday, I'd guess better than 60% of the crowd comes from the 5 counties in Michigan that have been hit the hardest. People would still go.

For me, I'm as close to SE Michigan as I intend to get. I probably won't go in that direction for at least the rest of this year, and maybe longer. I'm as close to all that as I ever want to get. Ann Arbor and Washtenaw County is lovely in the fall, but for me, not THIS fall.