Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

I have heard two different stories on random sampling and it makes it clear as mud. One was out in Colorado , they sampled the general population that hadn't had symptoms and been under quarantine and a whopping zero percent had been infected and were immune. Nate Silver had mentioned this in passing, but I don't see anything online. Another story was out in Italy they did something similar and 40 percent of the subjects had already had been infected and had the antibodies.

Well, hopefully as more data comes in the picture will be less muddy. April 30 is next decision-date. I'd like to think that data will start to paint a reliable picture by then, but it's probably going to be another month.

[froot loops]

Quarantine related - All of this home time has turbocharged spring cleaning, I cleaned out two junk drawers I've been meaning to do for 20 years. They were like a effing time capsule.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Froot, I'm late to the party and the subject matter of the current discussion has changed. You had posted a Freep link about Beaumont hospital's administrator, Fox (I think I'm attributing correctly) noting that there was a lack of a centralized mechanism in MI to reallocate critical care beds to hospital with less demand from those stretched to the max.

I responded (words too the effect), "this isn't something new." THat position based on my own experience working in ERs. Going on to say (paraphrased), the US HC system with regard to preparedness for things like war and pandemics had fallen on it's ass compared to some nation's HC systems that were doing better (and there were not a lot of those).

I didn't mean to impugn Fox or his position or your post - He speaks the truth in his circumstance and I believe him. My point was that the lack of a functional system to respond to mass casualties doesn't work as well as it should. Plenty of evidence that HC systems would fail if stressed but not enough people paid attention to that.

I violated my principal of avoiding unproductive recriminations with that post and I'm sorry if you took offense to it.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Arkansas >>>>>>> Alabama

AA:

hello

[Dr. Strangelove]

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/navy-secretary-blasts-fired-aircraft-carrier-captain

[Jeff Buchanan]

Most of us here have accepted the limitations of data (GR, CFR, MR, etc.) and predictive modeling. I think it is improving and getting mor fine grained but still ....... The reasons involve numbers of tests being performed (obviously improving), variance in testing criteria and reporting processes (variance in who get's tested, missing reports from labs actually doing testing) and inherent problems with statistical biasing. I asked MD's within our group discussing these issues what they thought of the validity of the data we have that is informing national, state and local public health policy. Among several responses this one was the most detailed:

[Jeff Buchanan]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/polit...dly/index.html

Crosier is either being vilified or glorified. He either did the right thing or he didn't. Wide range of opinions on this. You know where I stand.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Crosier is either being vilified or glorified. He either did the right thing or he didn't. Wide range of opinions on this. You know where I stand.

I posted a better link which contains much more of Modley's thoughts and an audio clip. According to T&P, Modley criticized the crew itself for cheering for Crozier. Said he caused "concern" on Guam. Said they need to do their duty and not complain. Warned them all against talking to the media because journalists are all biased and just want to embarrass the Navy.

1) Modley probably could be certain this too would leak

2) He probably wanted an audience of one to hear them

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/navy...arrier-captain

[froot loops]

Froot, I'm late to the party and the subject matter of the current discussion has changed. You had posted a Freep link about Beaumont hospital's administrator, Fox (I think I'm attributing correctly) noting that there was a lack of a centralized mechanism in MI to reallocate critical care beds to hospital with less demand from those stretched to the max.

I responded (words too the effect), "this isn't something new." THat position based on my own experience working in ERs. Going on to say (paraphrased), the US HC system with regard to preparedness for things like war and pandemics had fallen on it's ass compared to some nation's HC systems that were doing better (and there were not a lot of those).

I didn't mean to impugn Fox or his position or your post - He speaks the truth in his circumstance and I believe him. My point was that the lack of a functional system to respond to mass casualties doesn't work as well as it should. Plenty of evidence that HC systems would fail if stressed but not enough people paid attention to that.

I violated my principal of avoiding unproductive recriminations with that post and I'm sorry if you took offense to it.

There was no offense taken.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Talent:

[Jeff Buchanan]

Related to the Crosier situation but more broadly applied. I've made my position on the "blame game" clear here. Waste of productive time.

The Crosier circumstance is a bit different but it makes a point. If you are in a leadership position and facing a crisis, the last thing you should be doing is expressing anything but confidence and reassurance that whatever the crisis is, it will be overcome. History is replete with such moments. The crisis historical leaders faced were overcome with perseverance and courage.

There other examples historically and even recently of courage and perseverance of the average man on the street being a much better anecdote for the current public health crisis than playing the "blame game" complaining about the shit sandwich any one individual or large organizations might be facing and instead dealing with it as best one can given the resources to deal with it that are available.

I have the same issues here that some have with the press. Those who find fault in it - the politicized bitching to name just one aspect - have already described why. The press and perhaps just as importantly individuals using social media have rolls in this crisis. There's room for leadership here ..... lots of it.

[iam416]

Ohio update:

Cases: 2902 ==> 3312 ==> 3739 ==> 4043 ==>4450 (10.1%)
Deaths, 65 ==> 81 ==> 91 ==> 102 ==> 119 ==> 143 (16.7%)
Hospitlizations 679 ==> 802 ==> 895 ==> 1006 ==> 1104 ==> 1214 (10.0%)
ICUs 222 ==> 260 ==> 298 ==> 326 ==> 346 ==> 371 (7.2%).

I think deaths are still reflecting earlier growth rates. However, hospitalizations and ICUs are starting to consistently reflecting the lower case growth rates. Presumably the death rates aren't too much further away from coinciding with new case rates.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'm sure most of you here have already taken steps to obtain masks or know how to construct them.

The file is too big to upload here but you can find instructions on how to easily make good ones on FB. Search for the TBS FB Page. The easiest and best ones I've seen out of many are located there.

In the last week, I have personally changed my behaviors. Previously, I felt that it was safe to get out of the house to get a want but don't need item at a store.... mostly for the mental health of just getting out. IOW, the mental health benefits outweighed the risks of contracting the Chinese virus and even then I practiced strict hygiene measures.

Now the risks do not outweigh the benefits to me. If I were under 50, maybe. Over 65, no. While the probability of aerosolized virus inhalation is probably low, it's not zero. Playing it safe. Each to his own.

Not only that but it's virtue signaling and probably in a good way. I posted up thread that one of the proven benefits of wearing face masks as determined by Asian researchers is that it signals everyone is on-board with steps to stop the spread of COVID-19.

[iam416]

Yeah, the homemade mask does me no good, but other people wearing them does me good. Today at the grocery store it was probably about 60-70% wearing masks, so the societal pact is taking hold. Now, if we all had some n95s then we'd be in business because the incentives would be direct and personal! Nonetheless, I think it's going to be a social norm and, as I noted earlier today, I think we when do return back to work we're going to do so wearing masks.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Where do you even get the masks?