Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[AlabamAlum]

[iam416]

Yep. It was written from the moment it left Wuhan. There was and is no stopping this, and whatever delay you can manage create is, at best, wildly insufficient. The math doesn't lie. The difference between 33% and 15% is significant, but in real time and, more importantly, in medical solution/capacity-building time, the difference is NOT significant. I was one screaming from rooftops about capacity because I felt the massive outbreak was inevitable and that "flattening the curve" would prove largely ineffectual. But, I didn't appreciate the math and how quickly the tidal wave would hit. We probably needed to start in January, but no Western politician was taking this seriously. Well, except maybe Tom Cotton.

The cake was baked. As I said, we may have been able to frost it differently, but it was baked. As you said, our only real options were rearranging deck chairs on the Titantic. It's all going to come due in the next 8-10 weeks. By the end of May any area with 1000 cases today will be pushing 1M. By the end of May the US will be pushing 100M cases. The only unanswered question is the "real" mortality rates, but they're high enough that it's going to leave a gigantic mark on the world.

Keep your fingers crossed and hope you're not in the 15-20% that need hospitalization and hope to fucking christ you're not in the 5-8% that need ICU/ventilator help.

[iam416]

Sweden, for some reason, isn't closed down. Apparently Sweden is following the SEC lead.

[CGVT]

Read a first hand from an ER Doc in NOLO. Said that 70% of those put on ventilators died. Not sure how factual that is, but if true, it is scary as hell

[Dr. Strangelove]

Sweden, for some reason, isn't closed down. Apparently Sweden is following the SEC lead.

Brazil's lunatic President is trying to stop regional governors and mayors from closing anything as well.

Mexico was one of the few holdouts and last night they announced a national stay-at-home to last a month.

[iam416]

I really think it's mostly for naught. We're strapped in and about halfway up the first hill on the Millenium Force. There's no getting off this ride.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I completely missed this but last weekend Woody Widenhofer died (non from CV19). Played on Dan Devine's really good Missouri teams. Coached the Steel Curtain. Had stints with the Lions and Browns too. An inglorious head coaching career.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/2020/03/23/former-vanderbilt-football-coach-woody-widenhofer-has-died-77/2900364001/

[Whitley]

From the coronavirus act now website....worst case shelter in place....dates the hospitals get overloaded. This is as of 3/27...site gets updated every 4 days.

April

8 New York, New Jersey
12 Washington
16 Louisiana
19 Michigan
20 Conn., Illinois
23 Vermont, Idaho, Nevada (act by 4/9-14)
24 Maine (needs to act by 4/10-15), Penn. (act by 4/10-15), Maryland (act by 4/10-15), Wisconsin, Mississippi (act by 4/10-15), Colorado, Utah (act by 4/10-15), Oregon, California
27 Alabama (act by 4/13-18), Missouri (act by 4/13-18), New Mexico
28 Massachuetts, Rhode Island (act by 4/14-19), Delaware, Ohio, South Carolina (act by 4/14-19)

May

1 New Hampshire, Florida (act by 4/17-22), Oklahoma <minimal restrictions> (act by 4/1-6)
2 Virginia (act by 4/18-23), Iowa (act by 4/18-23), Texas (act by 4/18-23), Wyoming (act by 4/18-23)
5 Arkansas (act by 4/21-26), Arizona (act by 4/21-26)
6 Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee (act by 4/22-27), Kansas, South Dakota<minimal restrictions> (act by 4/5-10)
9 Minnesota, North Dakota (act by 4/25-30)
10 Indiana, Nebraska (act by 4/26-5/1), Montana, Alaska, Hawaii
23 Georgia (act by by 4/9-14)
29 West Virginia

Estimated deaths: 4.953 million (worst case with shelter in place states)

[AlabamAlum]

[Hannibal]

Talent -- I found an article that I'm sure you'll like...

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-03-27/past-pandemics-exposed-chinas-weaknesses

steep decline in cases

[iam416]

The WHO will have to answer for their China cocksuckery. They once again prove why the US should have absolutely zero fucking faith in international institutions.

[Ghengis Jon]

Gotta give Trump credit for actually listening (finally) to someone a hell of a lot smarter than he is. But reading between the lines, it seems that Dr Fauci has resigned himself to trying to manage an unmanageable infection. Not much hope to mitigate an AA or Talent scenario.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/fauci-trump-quarantine-white-house-discussions/index.html

[THE_WIZARD_]

Coach Scott Frost expressed concern for the health of his football players...except for the receivers...Frost noted "they can't catch anything".

[THE_WIZARD_]

I bet flyover country is looking pretty good to a lot of big city folk about right now...

[iam416]

Gotta give Trump credit for actually listening (finally) to someone a hell of a lot smarter than he is. But reading between the lines, it seems that Dr Fauci has resigned himself to trying to manage an unmanageable infection. Not much hope to mitigate an AA or Talent scenario.

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out globally, but I don't think anyone is getting out from under this tidal wave. It's inevitable. My best hope is that infections are significantly underreported and, thus, mortality rates are significantly lower. I'd be stunned -- I mean, floored -- if the CFR was any lower than 1%. And, as AA noted, with a 30% infection rate and even just a 1% CFR, you're looking at 0.3% of the population dying. When you're talking 7.75B, that's a lot. That's 40M. And I expect it to be 40-50M --and I expect that number to be hit by this summer.