Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[froot loops]

That graph is useful and a lot of people use it but it has its disdvantages. The US testing got a very late start so that graph line was bound to be weird. A lot of the US implemented the shutdown procedures earlier than Italy.

Italy's main problem is their hospitals got overrun. Remember, when your hospitals get overrun, the mortality rate goes way up, the US and any other country can fall victim to this. It is why the US governors started shutting things down. Italy issued the shutdown proclamation for Lombardi on 3/8, for comparison Michigan shut down the school systems just 5 days later. Any change in what you do has a two to three week lag time.

[Whitley]

Thought this segment was right on target.

[iam416]

100%. And Italy's cases are concentrated. One of the really difficult things about this thing is that the hospitalization rate is so high. And what happens to mortality if we don't hospitalize at 15-20%? Now, the Italians are probably seeing very high rates for people over 70 and people with other conditions. I think that death rates for otherwise healthy people under 70 are still very low. But the massive hospitlazation rate in a concentrated area has proper fucked them into a very high mortality rate.

NYC is on that path.

It'd be nice to have isolation type units that are equipped with the basics -- beds and oxygen. Enough to get a hospitalization case to safety if they're not severe. We need beds for those who aren't ICU cases.

Eh, we're fucked.

[froot loops]

I think the death rates for those under 70 are low, but we haven't seen good figures on how low. A younger person is much more likely to get through a hospitalization, but that person still might go through an intubation. From what I know they are deploying a vent much quicker than they normally would.

[Dr. Strangelove]

If the Gov of Louisiana is right, then New Orleans is in even more dire shape than NYC. He said today that the city will overrun its capacity on April 4 although later said this is 'worst-case scenario'

In about a week the state has gone from 196 cases to 1388 and 4 deaths to 46 (a 3% mortality rate which potentially suggests far more cases are out there than currently known). Should note the first case was only reported on March 9.

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_88b9baf4-6de1-11ea-b083-4f13855ee586.html

[iam416]

I think the death rates for those under 70 are low, but we haven't seen good figures on how low. A younger person is much more likely to get through a hospitalization, but that person still might go through an intubation. From what I know they are deploying a vent much quicker than they normally would.

I saw a study that had it under 1% for Italian cases if you were under 50. And it decreased down to 0.1% for 0-20 year olds. I think the vast majority of Italian deaths are also pre-existing cases. It's quite possible that the outbreak blitzed an unsuspecting area of concentrated population and has remorselessly picked off the most vulernable.

In any event, I find it hard to find any sort of "silver lining" in the Italian numbers. Months ago I said 3% is a terrifying number. I don't think there's too much doubt that we're at least around that number.

[AlabamAlum]

[Dr. Strangelove]

Three sailors aboard the carrier Theodore Roosevelt test positive. Sounds like they aren't entirely sure how they got it. The ship hasn't been in port in 15 days (Da Nang, Vietnam) although outside military planes land on the ship on a regular basis.

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-...-for-covid-19/

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, the DJIA closed up over 11% today ...... something like the biggest one day percent gain since 1933. Whoa.

I got reminded of some very good advice yesterday: If you've got some cash and are thinking of buying at the bottom, think about it this way: Are you comfortable with say, $10K sitting in your savings account or with that same comfort level having invested that amount in an indexed fund if it lost another 15-30%. To put that in real numbers, Your $10k equity purchase might net you $3K in gains in a 30% up market but could just as easily net you $2K in losses. Investing is all about assessing the level of risk you are comfortable with and always has been.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[CGVT]

What an irresponsible asshole.

Jesus.

[Jeff Buchanan]

You know, Strange, there are folks out their that actually believe that and will act on it. More and more, I'm counting on Desantis, while I'm here in FL, to ignore that moron and continue to do the work he's doing in the state.

Yesterday, he set up screening measures for major airports in FL (MIA, FTL, ORL), that today he announced will be expended to smaller ones. He also toughened the screening and quarantine measures for any passenger arriving from, in particular, NYC but also other "hot-spots" (he didn't say which ones but hinted CA and the rest of the familiar suspects).

Desantis is very concerned with COVID-19 +, asymptomatic travelers seeding FL when, as he put it, we're doing all we can to test/track and control the spread of the virus. When travelers from a hot-spot arrive by air, they'll pass through a special screening point manned by the FL National Guard and public health people. If they tick the boxes necessary (not defined in his presser), they'll be taged, and tracked (not sure the mechanics of that) and required to "self quarantine," at an address that they will have to identify. He said there will be penalties for breaking quarantine (also not defined). I'd like to know the details but I have to say, Desantis is paying attention, doing way more and messaging way better than the dolt in the WH.

[Ghengis Jon]

The 21 day lock down of India is going to hammer our heavy vehicle production. Significant quantities of components demanded globally come from India, both for OE and aftermarket. 4-6 week ocean transit time. Job layoffs are starting as Daimler and other biggies here in North America are shutting production down completely. This is going to ripple through the economy for a while. Oh, and what is one of India's other big exports? Generic drugs. And this is just India affecting our economy. Our insistence on cheap foreign product is about to seriously bite us.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Attention froot - Dunno if this may have a connection to you

Beaumont Health network nearing capacity. 450 patients confirmed to have COVID-19.and another 185 suspected

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/oakland-county/2020/03/24/beaumont-635-hospitalized-covid-19-limited-ventilators/2912096001/

[froot loops]

Yeah they are almost full. Every worker that can be repurposed as an ICU nurse has been. That includes newbies and surgeons alike. They are running low on supplies and there is no sign of it slowing down. We have a president in la la Land talking about Easter.