Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Ghengis Jon]

Went to the dollar store yesterday for a pair of reading glasses. Even their "food" aisle was bare.


I wonder if during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic there was sustained panic buying in the US. Guess I'll have to look at some newspaper archives.

[Ghengis Jon]

If dogs ruled the world, would they make all the humans wear plastic cones around our necks to inhibit the virus spread?

[Dr. Strangelove]

Unless people get more serious about "social distancing" or the city imposes more draconian quarantine measures, the projections I've seen for New York City in about two weeks are downright scary.

I've seen a few localities in New Jersey impose the sort of Spain-style restrictions already....that may be coming to a lot of us, folks.

[Cody_Russell]

SOCIAL DISTANCING!

[iam416]

I've seen a few localities in New Jersey impose the sort of Spain-style restrictions already....that may be coming to a lot of us, folks

I've been saying for the past week that this was the only way to really flatten the curve. But it was abundantly clear that we weren't going into a pre-emptive nationwide lockdown -- and no one on this thread was saying we should. That was my point -- we had one way to truly come at -- and even then, last week may have been way too late.

[froot loops]

Yeah it's true, it's amazing how much the collective viewpoint can change in a week. With the test issue being a big problem it makes it even more imperative. We are flying blind, the stuff that SK did was good but their response was predicated on their testing infrastructure.

[AlabamAlum]

[AlabamAlum]

Also, re-watched the second best Star Trek movie (Undiscovered Country) yesterday. The special effects just have not held up.

[froot loops]

The local Irish club I belong to shut down totally for the high holy days of March. When I was helping run the building I would guess a quarter of the revenue came from St. Patrick's day related events. It was a good, prudent and painful decision. That would be a incubator. My late in-laws would be beside themselves.

[iam416]

Yeah it's true, it's amazing how much the collective viewpoint can change in a week. With the test issue being a big problem it makes it even more imperative. We are flying blind, the stuff that SK did was good but their response was predicated on their testing infrastructure.

The testing preparedness was no bueno, but I'm absent a nationwide lockdown, I'm not sure it matters much in the long run. The point being that the disease is contagious before symptoms even show (I believe you posted a link that said they may be MOST contagious early in the life cycle). There's almost nothing to be done with something that other than a national lockdown -- or 325M tests -- or both. Whatever success SK and China are having, I'm more convinced that it's that they went hard on lockdown quickly. Taiwan, e.g., I believe locked shit down before they even had a case.

There's an argument out there that those Asian countries got a glimpse of this shit up close and personal with SARS and were far more willing to go nuclear sooner.

Whatever. The cake is baked.

[CGVT]

Loops, you should shut down the Uber business for a while too. I was Ubering on weekends to pile up cash to help put the last kid through college and get out of my wife's hair for a while. I was averaging about $350 (gross) on a Friday and Saturday night and quit after last Friday. There is no way to keep from being exposed if you are picking up strangers and confining them in your car. I figure my market, which isn't very busy anyway, will be really slow anyway, but I decided it isn't worth the risk. There is no way to keep the car sanitized and to protect yourself.

[froot loops]

That might be right. One thing we know is that we will know a lot more with every passing day. That science link about the contagious spread was interesting. I thought it gave a little hope about the timespan of when carriers can transmit and how they transmit.

[Dr. Strangelove]

The entire state of New York, not just the City the ENTIRE state, has 19,000 unfilled hospital beds as of friday. There's only a little more than 3,000 ICUs total. The city is already talking about moving patients to upstate hospitals because those in the city are unlikely to handle the load if the current trajectory holds.

https://www.lohud.com/story/news/2020/03/13/coronavirus-hospital-bed-shortage-being-managed-new-york-state-gov-andrew-cuomo/5035585002/

One projection I saw said somewhere between 65,000 and 122,000 cases in NYC by the end of next week unless the curve gets flattened. The public number won't be near that because the majority will be asymptomatic carriers (The number in NYC right now is certainly way above the 400 or so we know about). Assuming only 10% of those require hospitalization (and that may be a conservative estimate) that's still 6,500 to 12,200 people.

But hey, enjoy your green beer I guess

[AlabamAlum]

Most of the clubs stayed open and had huge shoulder-to-shoulder crowds. Philly, Chicago, Boston, DC, and even
here.

[Jeff Buchanan]

I've been saying for the past week that this was the only way to really flatten the curve. But it was abundantly clear that we weren't going into a pre-emptive nationwide lockdown -- and no one on this thread was saying we should. That was my point -- we had one way to truly come at -- and even then, last week may have been way too late.

It may not be too late at least regionally ....... the article I linked to up thread on the effectiveness of school closings on community transmission of disease tells us that yes, closings work under the right circumstances. So, a locality that has identified COVID-19 patient #1 and is tracking contacts can have a profound positive impact on virus transmission by directing appropriate closings, quarantine and restricted contact/ movement. OTH, the canary in the mine analogy applies where the new case rate is unknown, high and rapidly increasing and resources are not available to track contacts, e.g., it appears Iran is in that situation.

There are plenty of localities where it's not too late. For example, in FL, and as of Sunday morning, 106 Florida residents had tested positive in the state for COVID-19 according to Florida Department of Health officials. Another 9 non-Florida residents have also tested positive in the state, while 7 Florida residents have tested positive outside the state.There remained 221 pending test results, and 365 people were being monitored.

This is an example of a possibly effective state-wide public health strategy of identification and tracking of COVID-19 cases. Public health official know where the COVID-19 cases are in FL and where they are coming from if they fly in - NYC. That has led to the call from Governor Desantis to restrict flights from NYC where it is known that infected travelers are coming from.

Digging a bit deeper and looking locally, Broward County is responsible for a third of Florida cases, with 36 confirmed. Miami-Dade had 13 cases as of Sunday morning. When you are dealing with these numbers and public health officials appear to be keeping close tabs on them, if there is an exposure outside of these individuals being self quarantined, reactive closures following such exposure works. So do proactive closures of schools or cancellations of large gatherings.