Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Latest from Italy is 10,149 known cases, 631 dead (6.2% death rate). The known cases there may skew disproportionately older. I don't really know. Almost 3/4 of the deaths have occurred in Lombardy

[iam416]

They skew way old.

[Jeff Buchanan]

talent, I think you are absolutely correct that on a global and regional level, you can't stop the spread of COVID-19. I think you can mitigate it but, not short of, as you say, locking places down. You can argue that that approach has too many down sides and not enough up sides. The question lends itself to a risk benefit analysis where the benefits associated with lock downs don't outweigh the costs.

My argument rests on the point that you can't throw up one's hands in dealing with both the economic impact and the degree to which the rate of infection plays out over time. I think both Froot and I are making that point in the face of what seems to be a case of throwing up your hands and going to the mattresses on your part. I find that odd and not in character. Whatever.

One reason for the lack of testing in the US has a lot to do with the gutting of public health programs going back to the Reagan administration. For all intent and purpose, regional public heath facilities are education points. They are not clinics and not staffed as such. There are some medical services available but most of them have to do with pediatric immunizations. There is variance state wide in terms of medical services provided. CA offers a lot, the SE states such as AL and GA (I'm familiar with GA services) offers little if anything. The bottom line is that the US with arguably the least accessible and most costly health care delivery system in the world is showing it's ass in the face of a viral epidemic.

[Hannibal]

Anything coming out of China right now is highly questionable. It's a country where you can get a lengthy prison sentence for "spreading rumors on the internet" and everything is on lockdown even more than usual.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This story flys in the face of doubters who don't think anything can be done about the spread of COVID-19: Korea transitions from containment to mitigation. I'm not directing criticism at you, talent. I think you understand the situation better than I might have taken your post.

The main point in the linked article is that preparation for the deluge of sick patients should have taken place at the direction of Korean health authorities way earlier. Instead, the focus there was on data collection and tracing contacts from infected person #1, 2, 3, n ....... Now, the tactics are changing, albeit scientist think it's late in occurring and more lives could have been saved.

Sure, I like data and facts based on them. But, so far, global data on COVID-19 has become suspect for any number of reasons. Maybe we're over-focusing on what it can do. China's stuff has to be considered suspect although I think some of the latter data on infection rates and death rates was statistically sound. The good news is that a lot of very smart people in organizations outside governments are working on available data and trying to come up with ways to make it reliable.

I still believe, from what I'm reading from good science based sources, that COVID-19 cases, depending on the level of government directed intervention, peak in 3-4w and begins to decline. Even if the data can be believed, and it may not be completely reliable, no one is willing to go on record with how long it takes for COVID-19 infection to be eliminated either with or without containment measures - that means not to zero but to a new infection rate that is sufficiently declining to be able to reliably and statistically predict an end point.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/10/812865169/how-a-south-korean-city-is-changing-tactics-to-tamp-down-its-covid-19-surge?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=news

[froot loops]

I'm under the impression the data coming from China was much better once China asked the WHO for help. Sure you have to be skeptical because of their government isn't always straight. The most important part of any government is the people in charge speaking be as frank and truthful as possible.

On top of that it isn't just China, we are getting numbers from Korea and Singapore. Korea had little data point where they think they are bending the curve, meaning there are less new infections today than yesterday. It could be statistical noise, but they'll have to keep an eye on it. Piggybacking on what JB said about 3-4 weeks, it seems like some people were targeting day 28 as the peak and they are looking towards some of the newer regions for an outbreak to see if that is a real number or more statistical noise.

[iam416]

[Dr. Strangelove]

That's true, nearly everyone that had it in SK initially was affiliated with that weirdo church, right?

[iam416]

[iam416]

Correct, DSL. Weirdo church.

[iam416]

[Dr. Strangelove]

I don't know what they reacted to after lunch. Trump emerging from a meeting to say they're 'considering' a payroll tax holiday? (which he wants to last until at least the election, lol)

[iam416]

[iam416]

[Jeff Buchanan]

talent, got it.

With today's news, I'm beginning to see the value of the kinds of raw data we see of less importance than I thought even a few days ago. Statistical analysis is full of bumps along the way that interfere with the validity of conclusions drawn from it. I should have known this. That reality is foundational in the practice of medicine ........ you'll see all kinds of bull-shit that get's put out about some new miracle drug or new life saving procedure that is based on poorly conducted studies that UFR are full of holes statistically that are responsibly listed by the study authors as caveats or limits to study results. The public doesn't get that unless they read the 300 page study and that isn't going to happen very often. So, yeah.

I'm encouraged by reports that some pretty high level public and private institutions outside of government are working on making the data and conclusions being drawn from it more reliable but, damn, as has been pointed put up thread, where is HHS and the CDC on this? CDC's data is woefully inadequate in terms of reporting new cases and theealth care system n because of that inadequacy, I tend to think the conclusions and trends they publish aren't at all valid.

Frustrating. Like I said, the US health care system and what we might have thought was appropriate coordination going on between national, state and local health authorities are both getting pantsed.