Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Whitley]

Meant to include this schedule earlier. I tend to think the order in which polls close tonight will aid Biden's "messaging", even if Bernie ends up with more delegates down the road thanks to California

7 PM
Vermont
Virginia

7:30 PM
North Carolina

8 PM
Texas (except for the two westernmost counties)
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Alabama
Massachusetts
Maine

8:30 PM
Arkansas

9 PM
Minnesota
Colorado

10 PM
Utah

11 PM
California

American Samoa and Dems Abroad - ???

Dems Abroad don't vote tonight.

[Hannibal]

It's also worth noting that the Ds are so fractious right now that they've managed to break up Public Enemy. That's a group that's been together over 30 years, survived 8 years of GWB, the current term of PDJT and seemingly countless episodes of the horrifically awful Flavor of Love. Got through it all. Until they had to choose between Marxism and Freedom. I always greatly preferred Chuck D as the MC, but today I say, YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH, Boy!

The only downside to this is that Strangelove don't care as his cracker ass probably never listened to a PE song. If it were, say, One Direction splitting up then I'm sure he'd be despondently heartbroken and, thus a complete victory secured by Heroic Message Board Purveyor of Truth -- me. Maybe next time.

Who the hell is that? Public Enema? What the hell is a Public Enema anyways? I ain't listenin' to no goddamn Public Enema!.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Why not write every taxpayer a check for a thousand bucks instead? That would pump stimulus into the economy faster than a rate cut. Just like the Trump Corporate Welfare Tax Cut, business will spend the cash on stock buybacks and executive bonuses.

Ask the retirees with IRA CDs and pension funds how they like the rate cut.

Market: Save us, Fed, save us!! Stop the bleeding! Cut rates NOW!!

Fed: Here you go, bitches. 50 basis points.

Market: Oh shit oh jesus oh shit. The Fed wouldn't act unless things were serious. SELL SELL SELL!

[Ghengis Jon]

I noticed that too. Up 100 points, announce cut, down 400.

[Cody_Russell]

Biden should get off to a hot start tonight.
The question is how much does Bernie make up for that in the late closing states. Texas being so important. Also, how much does Bloomberg factor into this.

I was definitely wrong about Biden in this race. Predicted this summer that he would turn into Newt Gingrich. Totally dismissed Biden after New Hampshire.
Now, it appears he has all of the momentum after the Ds establishment consolidation.

[Hannibal]

If I wrote this article, I'd be called "racist". Before Trump, these were more common, but academia and mainstream media have been a little more careful over the past few years when it comes to gleefully proclaiming the effects of changing demographics

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/02/810401130/super-tuesday-could-show-just-how-blue-texas-is-turning

Super Tuesday Could Show Just How Blue Texas Is Turning

For Texas Democrats, the state's Super Tuesday primary could help define the shape of a party that's on the rise after more than two decades of being shut out of power.

During the Trump administrationracially diverse voters.

With so many changes, it's "really hard to predict virtually anything," said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston. But Super Tuesday, and how progressive the winning candidate is, could be a first look at where the party is headed.

"All Democrats agree that they want to turn Texas blue, but exactly what shade of blue is still in question," Rottinghaus said.

Here are a few of the shifts happening in the state and trends to watch as Texans cast their ballots during the March 3 primary:

1. Texas' overall population has exploded.

In the past decade, Texas has been home to many of the country's fastest-growing cities. While population growth has slowed across the U.S., in Texas there has been consistent growth.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in the period from mid-2018 to mid-2019, Texas grew by 367,0002. Younger and more racially diverse Texans are turning out to vote.

Democrats saw some fairly significant electoral gains in 2018. The party came closer to winning a U.S. Senate race than it had in decades, and it flipped several congressional and statehouse seats.

During the 2018 midterm elections, there was a huge surge in turnout in Texas, which has long had one of the lowest voter participation rates in the nation. In the March primaries that year, Democratic turnout in particular more than doubled compared with four years earlier.

Some of those gains have been attributed to a rise in young people and people of color voting, both groups that skew toward Democrats in the voting booth.

Texas is one of the youngest states in the country. About 40% of the population is under the age of 30, and more than 60% of those young people are people of color, largely Latino.

It's projected that by 2022, 1 in 3 voters in Texas will be under 30.

And while turnout among voters under 30 has historically been extremely low (just 8% in 2014), turnout among these voters tripled compared with the previous midterm election.

The midterm electorate in 2018 was also more racially diverse than in the past, with turnout among black and Latinx Texans significantly higher.

3. Democrats are drawing in voters from the suburbs.

Some of those electoral gains for Democrats were also aided by the support of voters in Texas who have historically supported Republicans.

"These are places that are suburban Texas that have been the haven for Republicans for so long, but now are shifting," Rottinghaus said. "You have got swing voters who are willing to cross the line and vote for Democrats instead of voting for Republicans."

Suburban counties around Austin, including Hays and Williamson counties, flipped to Democrats

It should be pointed out that the only difference between the voting behaviors of the Bush-Dukakis bombing and Hillary actually beating Donald in the popular vote was racial demographics. Bush and Trump both beat their respective opponents among whites by 20%. Bush lost Hispanics by 40%, Trump lost them by 38%. Bush lost the black vote by 78%, Trump lost the black vote by 81%.

[iam416]

I was definitely wrong about Biden in this race. Predicted this summer that he would turn into Newt Gingrich. Totally dismissed Biden after New Hampshire.
Now, it appears he has all of the momentum after the Ds establishment consolidation.

There was never any other viable "center left" lane candidate. As it turned out, everyone was sort of scared of Biden and ceded that lane to him, at least early on. I think, e.g., that Warren probably could have done a much better job of at least swinging partially into that lane. Instead she basically went all-in with Bernie and there was no earthly way she could be an avowed Marxist for the hearts and mind of #GentryCommies.

The one thing that's surprised me is rapid reversal. He really did look dead. But, then Bloomberg looked totally unviable. Then Bernie looked like the total frontrunner -- a Socialist about to win the D nomination. Then Biden crushed SC and gave a pretty solid speech in victory. All of that the space of about 10 days. He really is the Undertaker. And there are a lot of Ds who really do hate Bernie.

[Hannibal]

I'm still not convinced that this Biden comeback is real. We'll know more in about 12 hours, I suppose.

[Dr. Strangelove]

10-year bond is close to breaking below 1% for the first time in history. There was a guy on CNBC a short while ago who thought the bottom for the 10-year will be close to 0.25%!!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/treasury-yields-rise-after-stimulus-hopes-lift-risk-on-sentiment.html

[froot loops]

The thing with Biden was predicted by DSL a long time ago because the polling indicated this scenario. Biden was always polling like crap in IA and NH even when he was polling well nationally. It is kind of playing out exactly as he posted. The needle to thread in this is the ability for both sides to come together after it is decided. That might not happen.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Morning Consult isn't the gold standard in polling but their poll taken only yesterday and this morning shows Biden up 8 points on Bernie nationally.

EDIT: Caveat to polls like this just occurred to me...a pollster can make a respondent choose between the four remaining candidates (sorry, Tulsi), but when people are actually voting, they are still going to see Pete's name, Amy's name, Steyer, maybe even Booker and Harris in some cases.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/03/0...obuchar-exits/

[Dr. Strangelove]

There was never any other viable "center left" lane candidate. As it turned out, everyone was sort of scared of Biden and ceded that lane to him, at least early on. I think, e.g., that Warren probably could have done a much better job of at least swinging partially into that lane. Instead she basically went all-in with Bernie and there was no earthly way she could be an avowed Marxist for the hearts and mind of #GentryCommies.

The one thing that's surprised me is rapid reversal. He really did look dead. But, then Bloomberg looked totally unviable. Then Bernie looked like the total frontrunner -- a Socialist about to win the D nomination. Then Biden crushed SC and gave a pretty solid speech in victory. All of that the space of about 10 days. He really is the Undertaker. And there are a lot of Ds who really do hate Bernie.

I think the fact that Bloomberg fell flat on his face (and possibly has oversaturated Super Tuesday markets to the point of annoyance) is the biggest key. The centrist lane was preparing to hand Mayor Mike the keys when they suddenly got the shock realization that, like most NYC politicians, he is a colossal, unlikeable asshole. I think some people felt they were getting Bezos or Bill Gates or something.

[Hannibal]

Compassionate Liberals love all, unlike mean spirited Conservatives.

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[Dr. Strangelove]

WHO adjusts the global COVID-19 fatality rate upward to 3.4%. But also suggests a range of 0.7% to 4.0% depending on the quality of healthcare. Says there's a lot still not understood.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-...y-thought.html

[lineygoblue]

Compassionate Liberals love all, unlike mean spirited Conservatives.

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I just don't see the humor in that. And yes, I'd feel the same way if the roles were reversed.

After all the diseases I've seen in my own family over the past five years, illness is not something that I'll ever joke about anymore. I still feel guilt about teasing my mother about "old timers disease" when she used to forget things. Then she died from Alzheimer's and dementia in 2017. I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy.