Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

There hardly seems to be a point in trying to quarantine folks since by the time you know that you have the virus, you have probably already spread it to a bunch of people.

Yeah, it seems like a well-evolved pathogen. Won't make most people terribly ill so they can spread it to as many others as possible.

Believe I've heard both deaths were people in a nursing home where another 50 people are showing symptoms (residents and staff). Retirement homes like that are probably where there's going to be the most tragic outcomes.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Supreme Court will hear the Obamacare case next term. A decision won't happen until after the election but it could put the DOJ in the awkward position of having to make oral arguments in favor of blowing up Obamacare in Sept. or Oct.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/02/politics/supreme-court-affordable-care-act-case-next-term/index.html

[iam416]

Yeah, it seems like a well-evolved pathogen. Won't make most people terribly ill so they can spread it to as many others as possible.

Right. I think I'm finally getting to a pretty comfortable level with it. My guess is there are a lot of unreported cases out there due to the mild nature. So, my guess is that mortality numbers are exaggerated because of that. They're also exaggerated because China probably didn't know what it was dealing with right away. My guess is mortality ends up being less than 0.5% for the "healthy segment" and fairly high for the elderly -- like 10-15% high. I wouldn't be surprised to see this into "flu-like" numbers at the end of the day.

[Whitley]

Supreme Court will hear the Obamacare case next term. A decision won't happen until after the election but it could put the DOJ in the awkward position of having to make oral arguments in favor of blowing up Obamacare in Sept. or Oct.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/02/polit...erm/index.html

Definitely not good news for President Deals. Health Care is a huge issue that Republicans got smacked down with like the People's Elbow numerous times in 2018 midterms.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Right. I think I'm finally getting to a pretty comfortable level with it. My guess is there are a lot of unreported cases out there due to the mild nature. So, my guess is that mortality numbers are exaggerated because of that. They're also exaggerated because China probably didn't know what it was dealing with right away. My guess is mortality ends up being less than 0.5% for the "healthy segment" and fairly high for the elderly -- like 10-15% high. I wouldn't be surprised to see this into "flu-like" numbers at the end of the day.

Yeah and it seems to hit the elderly harder than children. I'm not sure I've heard of a single child mortality yet, in any country. I'm sure they're out there but nearly every death I've heard about was someone old or already sick.

[Hannibal]

Right. I think I'm finally getting to a pretty comfortable level with it. My guess is there are a lot of unreported cases out there due to the mild nature. So, my guess is that mortality numbers are exaggerated because of that. They're also exaggerated because China probably didn't know what it was dealing with right away. My guess is mortality ends up being less than 0.5% for the "healthy segment" and fairly high for the elderly -- like 10-15% high. I wouldn't be surprised to see this into "flu-like" numbers at the end of the day.

People still reacting to it though like it's the Zombievirus. Lots of big travel events and whatnot getting cancelled.

[Hannibal]

Trump's approval rating on Rasmussen has dropped about 10 points in the past week.

[Dr. Strangelove]

China is running factories with Uyghur slave labor that have been forcibly relocated out of Xinjiang province.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-02/aspi-uyghur-china-forced-labour-report/12017650

[iam416]

Trump's approval rating on Rasmussen has dropped about 10 points in the past week.

And, oddly, I think he's going to be generally right about the coronavirus -- in the sense that it won't be a particularly "big deal" in the US.

I would actually rather have a leader error toward cautious optimistic than hysteric. PDJT is, obviously, capable of hysteric responses. But I don't think this is the time for that.

[Dr. Strangelove]

And, oddly, I think he's going to be generally right about the coronavirus -- in the sense that it won't be a particularly "big deal" in the US.

I would actually rather have a leader error toward cautious optimistic than hysteric. PDJT is, obviously, capable of hysteric responses. But I don't think this is the time for that.

I guess it depends what we mean by "big deal". It's not the Black Death, but neither were West Nile, Ebola, SARS, MERS, etc. If it turns out to essentially be a flu season that causes double or triple the number of deaths than a regular year, then that's reasonably serious. And would justify the cancellation of public events, people avoiding travel, sending kids home from school, etc.

With regards to Rasmussen, they're a trash outlier. It did show a big swing this week but his approval rating was likely never really at 52%

[Dr. Strangelove]

Internal documents show FEMA is preparing for the possibility that Trump will order them to use their funds to assist local governments deal with corona. FEMA's been used to assist disease control once in the past; Clinton ordered it done in 2000 to fight West Nile.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fema-prepping-possible-coronavirus-emergency-declaration-n1147016

[Dr. Strangelove]

Whoa, Amy K dropping out now too. Will endorse Biden (Pete reportedly thinking about endorsing him too).

[Whitley]

Didn't see this mentioned up thread

Mayor Pete drops out. Interesting that he drops out ahead of Super Tuesday (not that he was going to do well there). Politically it is a pretty good move for him (especially if he got a deal to step out right now). Pete voters are kinds all over place I suspect they will go off pretty evenly but a portion of them will probably go to Biden and that might be enough to meet the 15% threshold to get delegates in all states something Biden was not a lock for before.

Warren seems to be playing two fold here 1) Just pick up a few delegates here and there and try to play kingmaker at the convention. 2) To be just enough of a factor to deny Bernie a chance to have the majority of delegates entering the convention. I think that was a factor in Bernie going into her home state and campaigning there on Saturday. Warren is proving herself to be a politician that is whatever she needs to be in order to get a little bit more power.

[Whitley]

Whoa, Amy K dropping out now too. Will endorse Biden (Pete reportedly thinking about endorsing him too).

And now it gets down to a 3 person race Bernie/Biden/Bloomberg

The establishment has made their choice.

[Ghengis Jon]

Amy K the first to endorse Biden? If Biden gets the dem nod, look for Amy to be VP nominee. Gender politics to 'balance' the ticket. Maybe Warren if she sticks around long enough to hose Bernie.