Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

3rd case of unknown origin, this one in Oregon.

[Jeff Buchanan]

DSL, I hope you're not thinking that I don't think 19-CoV will spread in the US. It will just like any common cold or influenza virus. The question that is a long way from being answered is how many people in the US will develop COVID-19 after exposure to 19-CoV and how severe these infections will be.

Please appreciate the difference between 19-CoV (the virus itself) and COVID-19 (concurrent symptoms with PcR based confirmation of the presence of 19-CoV). I brought this up yesterday. The difference is important because reports that a new "case" has been detected in the US isn't distinguishing between the two. I've not seen anything official describing the symptom severity of those identified as + for 19-CoV but that won't stop visuals of people in China on ventilators encased in protective tents accompanying reports of new cases in the US.

Having said that, I don't know the circumstances of each new case. It would seem to me that a person wouldn't get routinely tested unless they presented with symptoms. However, that may not be the case because surveillance of health care workers among others is underway and if they have been exposed to persons with symptomatic COVID-19 they're getting tested. Sounds like hair splitting, I know, but it's nonetheless important

I believe the visuals and lead line type reporting of new confirmed infections is fueling unnecessary alarm. Pay attention, yes. Then calmly wash your hands. The CDC continues to hold that the risk to people residing in the US remains low. From the CDC......

The potential public health threat posed by COVID-19 is high, both globally and to the United States.

But individual risk is dependent on exposure.

• For the general American public, who are unlikely to be exposed to this virus at this time, the immediate health risk from COVID-19 is considered low.
• Under current circumstances, certain people will have an increased risk of infection, for example healthcare workers caring for patients with COVID-19 and other close contacts of persons with COVID-19. CDC has developed guidance to help in the risk assessment and management of people with potential exposures to COVID-19.

current global circumstances suggest it is likely that this virus will cause a pandemic. In that case, the risk assessment would be different.

The link below contains the official CDC data as of 4pm Thursday afternoon. The next update will be on Monday, March 2nd and will be current through 4pm Sunday. Have a nice weekend. I'll be cruising starting Monday and enjoying that, not worrying at all that the risk of infection aboard ship is any greater than normal.

Keep checking the links I've provided for accurate information on the alleged end of times .......

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

[froot loops]

Ha! Well played.

When he throws out the Kids Bop CD, that is the Chef's Kiss.

[Cody_Russell]

Open primary. Just voted.
Wow, precinct was EMPTY. and 90k+ people live in my city.

513EDAAE-EFAE-4A5A-9576-388B8770D453.jpeg

[Jeff Buchanan]

If you're a bit concerned about the markets, this is a really solid article about corrections v. bear markets. Some key points:

• This looks like a correction (> 10% decline, < 20%) and these happen on average every 3.4y. Markets were way oversold and over-due for a correction.
• From on the way to the bottom to full recovery takes 6-8 months for a correction.
• Bear markets occur as a result of fundamental reasons (sub-prime lending bubble, recessions, high interest rates). None of these are present.

My only criticism of this particular take is that it doesn't seem to account for the significant impact that the shuttering of the Chinese economy has now and will have as they get started slowly back up on the global economy ... i.e., the damage to the supply chain arguments which have a trickle down effect in the supply chain. e.g., can't produce phones, cars, what have you because can't get the components to build them; plants close, people get laid off, consumer confidence is sapped, yada, yada...... then comes a global recession.

I read another article this morning on the question of should we trust the economic data coming out of China, that data correctly reflecting the hit absorbed by COVID-19, but also believed to be overly optimistic in assessing it. The Party will not want to let on that things are really bad in their own house and some analysts outside of China think that businesses in China are hurting badly. However, these same business that took out business loans are not likely to have them called in by the banks ..... that's because the State owns them and can simply say, "we're not calling in any loans." It would be a disaster if they did call in those loans. The Party will not let massive lay-offs occur if businesses go under. That would be very bad for XI's popularity which he relies on to subdue discontent associated with how shitty Communism really is.

I see central banks around the world doing their part to avert country wide recessions and, in turn, preventing a global recession ..... but then, I'm this glass half full kinda guy.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4328397-market-correction-what-you-should-know

[Dr. Strangelove]

China quietly released its manufacturing numbers for February after markets closed yesterday. And not surprising, they are the worst on record. Below 50 is considered contraction; they were at 35.7

[Ghengis Jon]

Here's the "vision" of Israel - Palestinian Mid East plan put forth by the Trump administration. The 'hover' configuration of the reader is a little clunky but works.

I imagine the German 'vision' for the Sudetenland was very similar. What a horribly slanted offer of indentured servitude.

https://interactive.aljazeera.com/aje/2020/the-failed-deals-of-the-century/index.html

[Jeff Buchanan]

Here's the "vision" of Israel - Palestinian Mid East plan put forth by the Trump administration. The 'hover' configuration of the reader is a little clunky but works.

I imagine the German 'vision' for the Sudetenland was very similar. What a horribly slanted offer of indentured servitude.

My quick take on Trump's peach plan is, and as you suggest - a US version of the Nazi's vision for the Sudetenland - unworkable. It's laughable and not in anyway a jumping off point for the current situation on the ground.

[iam416]

Biden really needs to survive Tuesday and get to the next set. The fear of losing to PDJT is taking hold, I think. But, Tuesday is too soon to turn things around too much. Survive. FFS, stay alive! No matter occurs! STAY ALIVE!!!!

[lineygoblue]

My quick take on Trump's peach plan is, and as you suggest - a US version of the Nazi's vision for the Sudetenland - unworkable. It's laughable and not in anyway a jumping off point for the current situation on the ground.

Agree somewhat, Jeff. But what plan have the Palestinians put forward? Their position is that "Palestine" must be liberated. And they're not just talking about the west bank and Gaza. They're talking about Israel, .. and further, they want all Jews out of the area. Total liberation of their homeland.

All of their feeble efforts to engage Israel in talks have had the precondition of "the right of return". That means that any Palestinian could walk up to any Israeli property owner, and say that their ancestors owned that land, and that the Israeli citizen has to give it up. Agreeing to such conditions would eliminate the state of Israel. And if there is no Israel, there is no Jewish homeland. And that's fine with the Palestinians. They want Israel gone, and all Jews gone.

Trump's plan may be unworkable, but nobody on the other side has proposed a better idea.

[Whitley]

Biden really needs to survive Tuesday and get to the next set. The fear of losing to PDJT is taking hold, I think. But, Tuesday is too soon to turn things around too much. Survive. FFS, stay alive! No matter occurs! STAY ALIVE!!!!

Biden has not been in a super tuesday state in a month, he has no grassroots organizations there and only made a 6 figure ad buy for all the super tuesday states. And Bloomberg is in play now. There are reports that Biden people called Warren and Kloubacher camps and told them to not drop out (if they do) until after Tuesday. The reason being that they are hoping that those two can win their respective states (Warren is in serious trouble in Mass. and Kloubacher is not safe in Minnesota either).

[Whitley]

Agree somewhat, Jeff. But what plan have the Palestinians put forward? Their position is that "Palestine" must be liberated. And they're not just talking about the west bank and Gaza. They're talking about Israel, .. and further, they want all Jews out of the area. Total liberation of their homeland.

All of their feeble efforts to engage Israel in talks have had the precondition of "the right of return". That means that any Palestinian could walk up to any Israeli property owner, and say that their ancestors owned that land, and that the Israeli citizen has to give it up. Agreeing to such conditions would eliminate the state of Israel. And if there is no Israel, there is no Jewish homeland. And that's fine with the Palestinians. They want Israel gone, and all Jews gone.

Trump's plan may be unworkable, but nobody on the other side has proposed a better idea.

Correct me if I am wrong but didn't the WW2 TPTB basically erase Palestine to create Israel?

[lineygoblue]

Correct me if I am wrong but didn't the WW2 TPTB basically erase Palestine to create Israel?

I don't believe Palestine was erased.

A Palestinian/Arab state was created and re-named Jordan.

Israel was given land that they had a historical claim to, and it was designated as the homeland of the Jewish people. Hitler and his genocidal actions made that necessary.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Biden really needs to survive Tuesday and get to the next set. The fear of losing to PDJT is taking hold, I think. But, Tuesday is too soon to turn things around too much. Survive. FFS, stay alive! No matter occurs! STAY ALIVE!!!!

[Jeff Buchanan]

Liiney, were you around when Doc Hodgeman and I had a extensive discussion about the Isareli/Palestinian conflict at the old forum? Doc was pro-Palestinian as I recall and I argued for the Israeli's position. Scholar's don't agree on what the language means in the history of the agreements involving these two "states." and even that term is controversial.

The conflict is probably the world's most complex and unresolved boarder dispute in recorded history. My point was that the Trump peace plan fails entirely to consider or address where the situation on the ground is, today, as a result of the series of previous plans and agreements that became a part of history. It ignores them and in doing so it's garbage.

I'm not going to go down the road of arguing who is right or wrong in this mess. TBH, I really don't have a position anymore.