Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Well on the plus side your 401k might be down 15% and you're sick as a dog, but at least you'll be paying under $2 at the pump!!

[iam416]

Low gas prices are YUUUGE in a quarantine situation!

[Jeff Buchanan]

Good article, talent ...... the part about the large numbers of Chinese men who are smokers explains why a lot more men than women in China got the virus is important. So is the statement, if you are healthy and take reasonable steps to avoid exposure to the virus (e.g., wash your fucking hands) you'll "probably be fine."

BTW, vaccines are not likely to be "years" or even many months away - something you've been hearing along with the poo-pooing of Trump's announcement that "vaccines are coming." They are and probably a lot faster than we are hearing especially in the developed, wealthier nations. Poorer countries with shitty governments? They are in trouble and WHO has already made a point about this urging wealthy nations to pony up to help.

shipped

Aside from the WHO site I linked to that provides balanced and accurate, contextual information on COVID-19, here's another web site worth perusing on a regular basis (where the quote above comes from):

https://www.kff.org/news-summary/u-s...ls-in-6-weeks/

[iam416]

Yeah, I didn't realize smoking was such a huge problem in China.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Good article, talent ...... the part about the large numbers of Chinese men who are smokers explains why a lot more men than women in China got the virus is important. So is the statement, if you are healthy and take reasonable steps to avoid exposure to the virus (e.g., wash your fucking hands) you'll "probably be fine."

BTW, vaccines are not likely to be "years" or even many months away - something you've been hearing along with the poo-pooing of Trump's announcement that "vaccines are coming." They are and probably a lot faster than we are hearing especially in the developed, wealthier nations. Poorer countries with shitty governments? They are in trouble and WHO has already made a point about this urging wealthy nations to pony up to help.

shipped

Aside from the WHO site I linked to that provides balanced and accurate, contextual information on COVID-19, here's another web site worth perusing on a regular basis (where the quote above comes from):

https://www.kff.org/news-summary/u-s...ls-in-6-weeks/

Not trying to argue here but it's FDA and CDC officials (I believe) who are putting it out there that a vaccine is 12 months away. Like it says early in this article, they may be ready to do their first tests in April, but repeating the tests, making sure they can replicate the results (if they succeed on first try), and making sure there are no unforeseen side effects, and you're pushing it down the road quite a bit.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

[Dr. Strangelove]

Yeah, I didn't realize smoking was such a huge problem in China.

Believe not just there but all East Asia. The Koreans and Japanese smoke like chimneys too.

EDIT: According to wiki, almost 30% of Japanese men smoke. And that's the LOWEST figure since they began tracking in 1965

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoking_in_Japan

In the US it's a little under 17% of men

[Jeff Buchanan]

Don't disagree with your take, DSL, in normal times .....my guess is that this is going to get fast tracked.

This is something I know a bit about having my daughter as a resource. Drug efficacy, in this case a vaccine but applies to any drug being developed by private pharma, can be tested in Vitro with a high degree of accuracy with respect to how it will perform in Vivo. That wasn't the case even 5-10 years ago. Human trials were much more important then. Now, it's possible with human genomic sequencing fully available coupled to AI to quickly determine if the drug is likely to kill a human or produce any serious side effects. Once the probability of risk to a human is determined to be sufficiently low (I don't know the threshold in the US. In Europe its around 5%), the product gets government approval and goes to open market.

I wouldn't even hazard a guess here on an exact time frame but "it's coming" is not an unreasonable statement to make and I also would bet it's an informed one. Trump likely asked NIH officials for and was given an estimate of when the vaccine would be available to the public on the scale necessary. I also don't doubt that within closed doors discussions were had about fast tracking and production options and those too were provided.

[iam416]

If this shitfest ends up as a seasonal disease -- like the flu -- then I would assume the vaccine would be close or ready by next "season." It is, of course, not particularly clear as to whether it's seasonal. I.e., does temperature and/or humidity affect spread.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Big market rebound started around 10:30 when investors apparently decided things had fallen far enough and started buying like crazy. Still down on the day but the past couple hours have been a 700+ point swing

[Hannibal]

The markets cratering is pretty irrational if you ask me, but since everything is speculation anyway, the high stock prices might have already been irrational and we are just seeing a correction that won't revert back to the previous levels once the virus starts to mitigate.

[iam416]

Yeah, there is nothing particularly rational going on right now.

[Ghengis Jon]

The corona virus is simply a convenient excuse for a long overdue correction. Not minimizing the illness, I think this week's market is just releasing some air from a bubble that was going to pop anyway.

[iam416]

There's probably some truth to that. It probably corrected plenty in 2 days, though. I think if it goes down further then you're starting to look at some real irrationality that should be recouped relatively quickly if (and when) we are able to put a bunch of real knowledge around the coronavirus.

[Dr. Strangelove]

White House getting its priorities straight. They're telling everyone across the administration that ALL INTERVIEWS with the press about coronavirus have to be cleared by Pence's office. Dr. Anthony Fauri, the Director of NIAID who spoke at Trump's press conference yesterday, told the Times that he has been instructed by the White House that he is no longer allowed to speak to the media without getting permission first.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/us-coronavirus-pence.html

[Jeff Buchanan]

On the markets: pundits have been saying for months the market is over-valued and a Dow around 27000 reflects economic reality. Predictions of the Dow at 30000 reflects the same kind of over-reaction associated with irrational exuberance that the fear stoked by the media over COVID-19 is an over-reaction in the from of a selloff that might reach a DOW of 25000.

Here's another thing to keep in mind. The volatility we're seeing in 2020 was expected by rational experts. The huge swings were not and those can be attributed to COVID-19 generated fear and the auto trading that precipitates, a good deal of it irrational. 10-20% swings - large by most standards - in the value of any investors holdings is still common place when the markets are viewed over decades, not days, weeks or even months.

This is not a "new world of investing" as some have argued. It is the same world of investing long term investors have experienced for, at least, the last 75 years. TBF, there are new factors that might, going forward, affect age dependent approaches to investing - these involve questions about the utility of the typical 60/40, Equities/Bonds portfolio allocation and the appropriateness of hedge funds in your investments.

There's tons of information on the web about these alternatives. Now is probably not the time to be considering rearranging your investments. Let the markets wring all this out first. I've been through 3 periods of dramatic losses in portfolio values over the 40 years that I've been a serious saver. I got really nervous the first time, was urged to sit tight, did so and that proved to be excellent advice that turned out to be not only good advice but also repeatable at subsequent occurrences. Vanguard's Bogle and Berkshire Hathaway's Buffet would agree.