Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Well, that's unfortunate .... Limbaugh's analysis and criticism of the CDC's Messioner. I don't believe for a minute that there is a deep state let alone that it is manipulating the news to "get Trump."

This is just an example of the other extreme ..... the information available without a lot of digging for facts is extreme in its over-reaction to the impact of COVID-19. So, the other extreme - minimizing and politicizing COVID-19 - predictably presents itself.

Sad.

Limbaugh also said something like "2% fatality rate is no big deal".

One, we don't really know if that the true fatality rate among all individuals...it's probably lower...but 2% would actually be a REALLY big deal like talent said earlier.

Two, Limbaugh just announced he has advanced lung cancer. He almost certainly at a lot more risk than the average adult. Would think he shouldn't poo-poo this

[Jeff Buchanan]

The Dow experienced it's largest reversal in 2 years going from an interday high of up 415 points to a down 124 points at today's close. You can't sugar coat this or rationalize it. The markets have given up somewhere in the neighborhood of $3T in value since COVID-19 started to register. It's not just fear of COVID-19 either although most experts think that's whats driving the size of the losses.

There are measurable and tangible economic damages globally. China's economy, the world's 2nd largest, is virtually shuttered and that means, like Fruit mentioned, you can't get replacement screens for iPhones and China isn't buying raw materials to manufacture the ton of stuff they produce every day. The uncertainty of the effectiveness of containment measures by region and country is unknown although what went on in that regard in China is encouraging. But uncertainty with regard to COVID-19 is the by-word right now. That will sort itself out in time.

Chine's economy will restart and things are already underway on that front but economic uncertainty - a dread for stock markets everywhere - combined with the unknown short and long term impact of COVID-19 persists and will continue to drag values down in the short term. The Sanders effect is also real and so is trade uncertainty and these aren't going away any time soon. As well, experts have been offering lately that stocks are over-valued and a correction is coming. It's almost here as both the Dow and NASDAQ are close to that 10% drop that defines a correction.

Combined, you can't say a lot of positive things about the prospects for your stock market investments except think long term.

Cheers!

[CGVT]

Have no fear! The Orange Jackass has appointed Mike Pence to handle the Corona Virus.

All he has to do is pray it away!

Halleluja! We are saved!

Hopefully it won't take too much away from his efforts to pray away the ghey...

[Dr. Strangelove]

In a presser designed to talk about his corona virus containment plan, Trump has so far attacked Pelosi as being incompetent and trying to cause a panic, boasted that he's suing the New York Times, attacked Jerome Powell and the Fed Reserve, and flatly contradicted what a CDC spokesperson said just a few minutes earlier.

And he keeps saying there will be a vaccine "very soon" when I've seen person after person (informed ones) saying it'll 12-18 months before one is ready.

[drok]

Jeff - I feel like you have said at some point that the mask is pointless at preventing getting the virus but could be useful from preventing spread if you have the virus. Is that accurate?

[Dr. Strangelove]

And as the presser was going on, the Wash Post reports that the CDC has been made aware that the US has its first case of unknown origin. Someone in Northern California has tested positive that has NOT traveled overseas anywhere recently and has had zero contact with any known cases. They are attempting to trace how the person was infected now.

[Dr. Strangelove]

For some lighter news...Giuliani is accidentally letting reporters eavesdrop on him again.

George Pataki has a book coming out (surefire bestseller) is which he confirms a long reported rumor: Giuliani tried to talk him into canceling the New York City mayoral election that was scheduled to be held the Nov after 9/11 so that he could stay on indefinitely.

Anyways, this has Rudy calling reporters to badmouth Pataki and he accidentally didn't hang up when finished with a New York News reporter. Complains he only has about 5 friends left. Eventually he realized the line was still open and hung up. Then called back 15 minutes later (to the same reporter) seemingly oblivious that they had already spoken

This man was being seriously considered for Secretary of State and turned down being Attorney General.

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-giuliani-berates-pataki-friends-20200226-vsczidr3hvegnhgbpoc3ty5wtq-story.html

[Jeff Buchanan]

Jeff - I feel like you have said at some point that the mask is pointless at preventing getting the virus but could be useful from preventing spread if you have the virus. Is that accurate?

Correct. Hand washing remains the best preventative measure. Other steps include avoiding large gatherings when practical. When it's not practical be conscious of your surroundings. The WHO recommends remaining 6 feet away from coughers and sneezers - that seems kind-of ridiculous to me as that's hard but I think you can be mindful of it. Transmission is by droplets and fomites (your fingers) it is not clear how long a surface harbors live virus that you can touch and then infect yourself by touching your face (lips, nose, eyes) but it is possible. Don't touch public hand rails on stair cases and escalators. Be very careful of buffets - if foods on them are not properly protected from potential contamination, don't avail yourself of them.

I found this Vox article linked below about travel in a global coronavirus epidemic setting to be pretty good. It's very reasonable as far as I'm concerned. Based on one of the recommendations contained in it, I searched for Cartagena Columbia. It is a stop on our next cruise coming up next week. From the search I found the second article linked below. It outlines the government of Columbia's risk assessment approach. Reassuring.Enlightening to the extent that you can see that governments are taking containment strategies seriously

I should mention that the cruise line we are sailing on has sent out three letters explaining what steps the line is taking to address the potential risk of Coronavirus on their vessels. The list is extensive and includes exclusions of previously ticketed customers who hold Chinese (including Hong Kong), Iranian, South Korean, Japanese or Italian passports or any passenger who has traveled through any of these countries in the 14d preceding the cruise. Pretty strict ..... and we have never gotten sick on a Celebrity Cruise. I feel that is because the line is scrupulous about preventing disease from being passed among passengers. Moreover, we are sensible about avoiding exposure ..... washing hands, not touching public surfaces, being careful about what we choose to eat from a buffet, etc.

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/26/21150529/italy-coronavirus-south-korea

https://thecitypaperbogota.com/news/colombia-hedged-but-not-immune-against-advance-of-coronavirus/23871

[drok]

Thanks Jeff. Have a friend that is going through cancer treatment and he's trying to be cautious right now.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Jeff- Was curious, there's emerging evidence out of China and Japan that people can catch the disease, recover, and then catch it again. How common is that? China is saying that about 14% of the people who were 'cured" in Guangdong province ended up being re-admitted to the hospital later. There's also at least one known case like this in Japan involving a tour guide.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Questions being raised regarding two specific countries:

Iran --- Does anyone really trust their figures? At least two high officials in their government are sick. It seems inconceivable for that to be the case and overall cases be as low as they're claiming (fewer than Italy at this point). Their mortality rate is around 10% if you take what they're claiming at face value.

Indonesia --- They have yet to report a single case despite having a huge population, every country around them being impacted, and having close economic ties with China. There's thinking that they aren't effectively screening for the disease.

[Cody_Russell]

[Jeff Buchanan]

DSL, here's my experience with viral respiratory infections of all types ...... patient presents with varying degrees of upper respiratory infection (URI) symptoms. Based on presentation, the generally accepted standard of care is to treat symptomatically - meaning, no antibiotics (ABX). A follow-up is scheduled and if symptoms worsen, there's a likelihood that an overlying bacterial infection that might respond to ABX is present. Treatment is usually with a Macrolide such as Azithromycin (Z-Pack).

Iv'e seen plenty of patients who get better in 24-48h who then fall ill again over the next 10d. They aren't re-catching the virus. The immune system responds, gets used up and fails to completely clear the original infecting agent. Then, symptoms return, usually less severe. This can happen a couple of times with symptoms, getting milder each period, lasting 3-4 weeks. Kids under 5 and seniors over 70 are most susceptible to this kind of history - that's because kids under 5 don't have fully developed immune systems and seniors over 70 lose immune system strength.

Once again, the strength of a person's immune system dictates the time it takes to recover and rebound symptoms if they occur. I'd suspect this is what is going on with COVID-19 and reports that people are re-catching it. It's worth pointing out that generally, after exposure, the immune system develops anti-bodies (ABs) that persist to protect against re-infection. That's basically how vaccines work - at a very low dose of a specific virus (e.g. influenza) the introduction of the virus causes the immune system to produce ABs without producing physical symptoms or very mild ones. You'll get partial but not complete immunity to that specific virus you were vaccinated against. It's not a perfect science. Importantly though, post vaccination, if you become infected with the virus, symptoms will not be as severe. This is really important for kids and seniors.

......on your second question about trusting closed societies to accurately report COVID-19 infections. I think China new about COVID-19 and high level Party decisions were made to not release information at first but later, as the severity of the disease became apparent, a conscious decision was made to publically announce it and garner the technical support of the various agencies that provide it - WHO is one of those agencies.

In Iran's case, a similar thought process probably took place. They have engaged WHO as far as I know and once that happens, the data geeks get involved and it should, but not always if the government interferes, result in some clarity with regard to reported cases of COVID-19.

I'd add that every country has underlying objectives - not all of them honorable - with regard to the impact on their countries of announcing data, raw numbers, on disease infection rates. Numbers may not be that important right now. WHO officials have repeatedly stated that the potential for unnecessary damage being done by the release of information out of context or misrepresented is very high right now. What people need to know is that there is a global effort to contain COVID-19 and containment strategies being used are working - as evidenced by the decrease in new cases in China.

[iam416]

Bernie is going to get his miracle and we're going to get coronavirus'd into socialism. God bless.

[iam416]

From Jim Geraghty on the current state of corona: https://www.nationalreview.com/the-m...e-for-concern/

More of aggregation of information than anything else with a relatively sane outlook for the US.