Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[AlabamAlum]

[Cody_Russell]

What we really need is to see what the data looks like in Western countries. I realize China has "Medicare for All", but I'm not entirely convinced that means it's the best healthcare system.

As is the case with most viruses that spread -- they can't kill too many people. Or they won't spread. They'll infect you, you'll die and there is no more host.

That said, a 2-3% fatality rate is still scary. I can handle 0.1% or 0.01% (I think that's the flu), but 2 or 3% means kids at school will die. So, that's still horrifying.

So, it'd be really nice to get a fuller picture of what the fuck we're dealing with.

[iam416]

Death rate is much higher for the elderly too.

Right. And that would mean it's much lower for the "healthy" portion of the bell curve.

[froot loops]

I have no idea on China's healthcare situation but the amount of resources it threw at this was gigantic. Shutting down whole provinces and building big hospitals in days is not something most countries can approach doing. The worry is if one of the other countries has an out break that can't deal with it. Hopefully some of the treatments they have started trying since this started have improved to the point where it can be muted.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Look, lets get this straight. The mortality rate is 2.3% INSIDE China ....... a lot of other China stats are in the link below from China's version of the CDC.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130?guestAccessKey=bdcca6fa-a48c-4028-8406-7f3d04a3e932&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=022420

I also finally found a study that used the Diamond Princess Cruise ship as a testing platform to develop the Rho Naught (R0) value for COVID-19. It was 2.28. What does this mean? There were 355 confirmed cases of COVID-19 on the cruise ship. Starting from the discovery of COVID-19 infected person#1, after 10 days, without any intervention, the number of infected persons would be 1541. If R0 value was reduced by 25% and 50%, the estimated total number of cumulative cases would be reduced from 1514 (1384-1656) to 1081 (981-1177) and 758 (697-817).

The Rho Naught value of a virus helps to predict what impact strict infection control measure will have on the infectiousness or spread of the virus. The cruise ship did a good job with infection control measures but you'd never know that from the news. It is felt that the R0 value for COVID-19 from the Princess Cruise ship model is reflective of the actual, worldwide value of COVID-19's R0. IOW, infection control measures work in the case of COVID-19 ..... In China only it appears to have a higher R0 value than SARS and MERS but a lower mortality and morbidity rate. Too early to talk about this globally.

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30091-6/fulltext

Here's a couple of other facts I plucked from various sources:

Mortality is highest in the over 80 age group with those persons having other co-morbid conditions.

Global mortality in the under 10 age group is thought to be zero (no reported cases).

While it is very difficult to predict a global mortality rate overall - and I could go into why but your eyes would glaze over, it is thought to be less than 1%. Of note is that the resources available to deal with the virus itself (containment measures) and ill persons infected with confirmed COVID-19 varies greatly by regions and countries. We know this because the mortality rate for COVID-19 in the wealthier provinces of China is much lower than it is in Hubei. While I've warned against extrapolating one circumstance or countries experience to others, this extrapolation seems to be of some value.

I'm pretty sick of all the bad info out there. talent, I'm hoping your post was a bit tongue in cheek. I'm terrible at fleshing this out when it occurs so, sorry if I took your post seriously.

[iam416]

I'm not sure which of my posts you're referencing, Buchanan, but as of right now anything I say on coronavirus is pretty uninformed. My suspicion is that the mortality rate is going to be less than 1% for non "at-risk" populations. And my suspicion is that it will be less in countries with more money. But, that's just a wild guess.

I do think it will be useful when we can start to put real parameters on what we're dealing with. When you hear the word "pandemic" you think 1918-19 influenza -- you think millions upon millions dead. That's rather horrifying.

If the mortality rate, however, is within an order of magnitude from influenza then it becomes a less panicky issue. I mean, it ain't fucking good, but it's not as bad as one's imagination -- key word -- may see it.

So, I'm in line with you -- I'm waiting to see what the data is. And, of all the nonsense you post, I actually appreciate your updates on this topic.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Sure ....... it is very difficult to resist judgement on COVID-19 given the scope of what I would only characterize as the hysteria of the print and broadcast media. Facts man, facts.

I get trying to keep people informed on COVID-19 but this morning's news was rife with emotion grabbing visuals and dialogue and a lack of what I would characterize as completely understandable facts for the average man.

For example, actual headlines: Who predicts COVID-19 pandemic or CDC warns of likelihood that COVID-19 will overwhelm US.

WHO, in their press conference yesterday that I reported on, had their head guy explaining why COVID-19 is not a pandemic but that it "absolutely" could become one ......if the window of opportunity (for containment measures) is missed. The press didn't report that last line or talk about how effective containment measures have been in China and can be elsewhere if authorities pay attention and, yes, help is available, financial and technical, to at risk regions and populations. And, oh, BTW, global contribution, now including the US, to the containment and management effort has been unprecedented. Yet, that's not a headline.

In relationship to the second inaccurate headline, a CDC spokeswoman talked calmly about the importance of standard protective measures for average people in the US to take to prevent spread of the disease. She said nothing in line with the headline that appeared on the TV screen or what you will see in any news feed on COVID-19.

The facts are very encouraging. Official sources are not keen on boasting about that because, globally, anyway, the people keeping track of this stuff just don't know yet or they know but the data isn't solid. Every day that I seek out credible sources for facts, the data gets better and so does it's predictive power. The China data is good news. It's solid news based on the math. New cases are decreasing and importantly, that demonstrates containment measures work.

Now, Fruit's point up thread is well taken. China is unique in it's capacity to shut down the country and take containment measures that the US could not and would not take. But China's population is also unique - it's huge; it's cities are heavily populated and that population lives in close contact. Hubei is not a wealthy province. It's crowded. Transmission is a bigger problem there than in other places where COVID-19 has shown up.

Take for example, the northern regions of Italy. You are only getting the raw data, e.g., press reports say the numbers of infected persons "explodes." In what context? What are the public containment measures? Is the "explosion" consistent with estimated R0 without them. Is it less than R0 showing that containment is working? That data isn't discussed and it is too early to do so but, you still get the hysterical reporting.

Seek the facts.

[CGVT]

FWIW, some students at NYU Florence have had their flights cancelled. I suspect those were flights that were slated to go through "infected" areas. As of right now, my daughter's flight (through Paris) is on schedule for tomorrow morning (about midnight our time)

[Jeff Buchanan]

Feel bad for you and your daughter, CGVT. I also have family with connections to the northern regions of Italy. My son in law's parents live in Milan so, naturally, my daughter and son in law, both of whom ive in Switzerland, are concerned. They are both PhD level scientists in the field of Biomedical Engineering. But both of them have trouble dismissing the hysteria in the press but do so with regularity by seeking the facts.

What we don't hear is that closing of schools in Italy that have foreign students that were on break and went home - some of them to China I suspect - is a solid containment measure being taken by the Italian Government. The effectiveness of that measure won't show up for months..... but it will show up if what China did on a much larger scale by closing it's schools and many public venues did in that country.

Again, the press reports none of the Italian government's steps being taken. Here are some facts ......

http://www.euro.who.int/en/countries/italy/news/news/2020/2/joint-who-and-ecdc-mission-in-italy-to-support-covid-19-control-and-prevention-efforts

Do we here anything about this? Nope ...... just hysteria.

[CGVT]

"Again, the press reports none of the Italian government's steps being taken. Here are some facts ....."

I don't know about that. I found all of that info in the press. I also found mortality rates and some solid reporting. What press are you reading? ;)

NYU took steps to close campus. There was no directive from the Italian government.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, I see it too ...... but you have to look for it usually outside the mainstream ..... I get there are exceptions.

I'm certainly not claiming any insider information. The point is that I'm looking for official sources and pretty much ignoring what I hear mainstream. It is simply not the complete story and I feel that's a big problem in a situation like this.

[Jeff Buchanan]

As to your comment that NYU acted independent of the Italian Government .......

I'd call it a pre-emptive decision based on what NYU authorities expected the Italian government would do. Better to do that now in an organized and thoughtful, less disruptive manner than wait for the Italin government to direct it which they certainly were going to do regionally.

I can't stress this enough. Reports involving COVID-19 must be taken in context of appropriate official agency's data and actions based on such data. In this case, it's reported in the open press that COVID 19 cases are "exploding in Italy" and their closing schools ..... wow this must be serious would be a typical reaction to that. My daughter when I spoke to her on Sunday actually mentioned that but later realized that the real numbers of infected persons in Northern Italy are low and that this is simply a rational containment undertaking, it is regional and should suggest nothing beyond, well, that's good. I'm glad the Italians are taking the steps WHO recommends be taken.

http://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2020/february/Coronavirus_NYU_Florence.html

[Dr. Strangelove]

Medal of Freedom winner Rush Limbaugh yesterday attacked the CDC official who told people to be prepared and that the spread of corona in the US was inevitable. It turns out that official, Nancy Messonier, is Rod Rosenstein's sister. That makes her part of the DEEP STATE and is obviously just trying to panic the public and make the stock market tank to GET TRUMP.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, that's unfortunate .... Limbaugh's analysis and criticism of the CDC's Messioner. I don't believe for a minute that there is a deep state let alone that it is manipulating the news to "get Trump."

This is just an example of the other extreme ..... the information available without a lot of digging for facts is extreme in its over-reaction to the impact of COVID-19. So, the other extreme - minimizing and politicizing COVID-19 - predictably presents itself.

Sad.

[lineygoblue]

I don't think anyone can accurately predict how much this thing is going to spread. I read one report that stated that the virus should start to decline when the weather turns warm. I have no idea if that's true or not.