I think that Iranian proxies will continue to be utilized to poke the bear. I think the IRGC will continue to take provocative actions in the Gulf against a substantial US Naval presence there.
You could argue that Trump's tendency to over-react is a recipe for a hot war, even if it's a quick one, to get started. However, he's been restrained in his responses to these things (e.g., the shoot down of a US drone by the IRGC).
But, make no mistake, Iranians are restless. The focus of the Iranian government, as opposed to the IRGC which pretty much operates as hard-liners in the Iranian government dictate, is on suppressing agitators and there are plenty of those both US backed and independent inside Iran.
There's money to be made getting lots of international news coverage on the brutal tactics the Mullahs use to suppress dissent. That's a winner. A hot war isn't and my take is that the rump administration, if not Trump himself understands this.
You could argue that Trump's tendency to over-react is a recipe for a hot war, even if it's a quick one, to get started. However, he's been restrained in his responses to these things (e.g., the shoot down of a US drone by the IRGC).
But, make no mistake, Iranians are restless. The focus of the Iranian government, as opposed to the IRGC which pretty much operates as hard-liners in the Iranian government dictate, is on suppressing agitators and there are plenty of those both US backed and independent inside Iran.
There's money to be made getting lots of international news coverage on the brutal tactics the Mullahs use to suppress dissent. That's a winner. A hot war isn't and my take is that the rump administration, if not Trump himself understands this.
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