Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

Right, and likewise, if this is a political process and not a legal proceeding as McConnell keeps saying, then all this talk about Trump's "due process" rights being violated is...hot air

Right. This isn't a trial in any normal sense of the word. The House isn't a grand jury. The Senate isn't a jury. The House can do whatever the fuck it wants. And, frankly, it has. The Senate can handle it however it wants. I think the politics of it mean that the Senate can't just dismiss it out of hand, but rather they need to let the House Managers make their case; let PDJT make his and vote on it and be done. That's all they need to do.

The due process stuff is absolute nonsense. As is, btw, the notion that McConnell should recuse himself. And there's lots of other nonsense out there from both sides. But, I'm not interested enough to catalog it. I didn't watch a second of the House proceedings. I won't watch a second of the Senate. The result was ordained months ago. I don't need to watch that. Let me know when it's over.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Sorry to keep dwelling on this but Debbie Dingell was on Fox Business this morning and the host, Maria Bartiromo, who is normally a gushing Trump supporter, actually apologized for the President's behavior to her. It seems like Trump may have legitimately crossed a line even with a lot of his own people this time.

And this is also why ultimately I think the Impeachment stuff is going to be a fart in the wind. Anyone who thinks voters will have this in the front of their minds heading into the ballot box? Likely very wrong. We've got a long 11 months to the Election and Trump's impulses for self-destructive behavior and actions should never be underestimated. He's capable of plenty of dumb, shitty, or awful things between now and then.

https://www.thewrap.com/fox-business...-late-husband/

[iam416]

I'll say it until I'm blue in the face -- 2020 is about Democrat policies vs. PDJT likeability. Or, more succinctly, what do swing-state voters hate more, Democrat polices or PDJT personally? I didn't think the Ds could lose that question. Like zero percent chance. But now? They're really trying their damndest.

[froot loops]

The thing is 43 percent of the population absolutely adores Trump. They love that he is mean to people. His likability is 100 percent for them. And a very high percentage of those adoring fans live in the battleground states. It doesn't even matter on the policies, if they made policies that even talent liked, Fox News would make something up. They are very good at that and the Trumpboys slavishly eat it up.

When you have that kind of dedicated movement, it doesn't matter. It is all about Wisconsin.

[iam416]

Last time I checked 43% wasn't enough to get you elected and it was about enough to get your ass kicked in house races.

[froot loops]

Like I said, of the 43 percent a large percentage live in battleground states. Its all about Wisconsin. He might lose the popular vote by 5-6 million this time but squeak by with the electoral votes.

[iam416]

If they 43% are the majority in the swing states then you've lost. I don't think they are. I think there are plenty of voters a good D can peel off an win. I firmly believe the question remains: what do swing-state voters hate more, Democrat polices or PDJT personally? I didn't think the Ds could lose that question.

Obviously, you disagree. And, I understand why you wouldn't want to frame the question that way.

[iam416]

He might lose the popular vote by 5-6 million this time but squeak by with the electoral votes.

Yeah, I mean he won't campaign for one second in California. There's no doubt he'll lose that state by 4 million or more. The question, obviously, is can he replicated 2016 where he was over 50% in the other 49 states.

[froot loops]

It will be a replay of the 2016 election and the only states that matter are Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Everything else is already settled. Biden needs to win all three. If you are optimistic he can take Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump doesn't need to do much to win Wisconsin, if he can keep the Milwaukee vote down, he is re-elected. That Marquette poll has Trump far ahead and he has the Wlaker machine working for him.

Biden has to thread a needle. I'm not sure he can.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Everyone's going to be talking Wisconsin, but Arizona is just as important a state to win and there are pundits I respect who actually say Biden's slightly more likely to win there than WI.

Florida will be interesting too if Biden's the nominee. Safe bet he's the only Dem that could win there.

[iam416]

Biden will win decisively because the voters that matter aren't scared off by his policies. They can live with him. Biden will crush PDJT.

Now, you wanna throw Warren out there?

[froot loops]

Yeah, Arizona is a possibility but that would be a big upset it is Trump's to lose and he would have to do a lot to lose it. Florida and Georgia will be within sight but they won't flip.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Sabato's Crystal Ball says the three closest states will be Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin.

Cook's Political Report has the same three but also includes Florida & North Carolina as "toss-ups". Incidentally, for pipe dreams, they think Georgia is a weaker Republican state than Texas

[Dr. Strangelove]

New story in the Times claims that Rudy Giuliani and Igor Fruman have entered into a Joint Defense Agreement. If that's true, wow, Rudy expects to be indicted.

[Ghengis Jon]

They need to catch this son of a bitch before he starts killing people.

https://www.npr.org/2019/12/18/789369656/act-of-evil-15-horses-were-shot-after-being-hunted-in-rural-kentucky