Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

Here's the 538 average so you can see for yourself

Yeah, I'm aware of the aggregate. In fact several posts prior:

The 538 aggregate is still 47/47 roughly.

There were like 4 polls out yesterday on impeachment. Surprisingly, FOX was the only showing a plus for impeachment. Unsurprisingly, it was the only poll to make it through the censors here. HI!

In other polling news, two straight days, two straight polls by highly rated pollster according to 538 and two straight PDJT is beating the vast majority of Ds. In fact, of the 10 head-to-heads, PDJT lost only 1 -- to Biden, of course.

PDJT's approval rating on the 538 aggregate is as high as it's been since 2017.

Whatever the Ds are doing, they should keep at it. They really got him on the run.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Is this little repartee between you two a replay of the Maryland, Rutgers game?

Anyway ...... Trump isn't getting impeached. DSL, you know this so no need to keep posting useless, unreliable impeachment polls results suggesting he might.

Trump, as we will all agree, is a distasteful character but, it's very likely he's going to get re-elected because, well, what talent said the D's are doing and they should certainly keep it up. The entire impeachment schtick, since day one, has been really poorly done. In the process of poorly doing the D's have managed to look stupid, alienate swing voters and energize Trump's base ....... a sure fire way to lose the 2020 presidential election ...... and that's before the Ds nominate an unelectable communist to head their party.

[iam416]

First. the FOX poll isn't unreliable. It just so happened that 4 other polls had a slight against impeachment result.

Second, the polls don't suggest he's getting impeached. They merely show the partisan split and, TBH, that independents are against it.

Third, PDJT, IMO, is still a longshot to get win in 2020. But, this summer I had him at about 5%. As I've before, I think it's up to 20%. I'm sure if Vegas were doing a book on it (and they might be), it'd be a coin flip. That, in and of itself, is horrifying. I'd consider it one of the greatest fucking failures of American politics if the Ds can't win in 2020.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Dr. Strangelove]

First. the FOX poll isn't unreliable. It just so happened that 4 other polls had a slight against impeachment result.

Second, the polls don't suggest he's getting impeached. They merely show the partisan split and, TBH, that independents are against it.

Third, PDJT, IMO, is still a longshot to get win in 2020. But, this summer I had him at about 5%. As I've before, I think it's up to 20%. I'm sure if Vegas were doing a book on it (and they might be), it'd be a coin flip. That, in and of itself, is horrifying. I'd consider it one of the greatest fucking failures of American politics if the Ds can't win in 2020.

I look at it from the opposite angle (surprise). The fact that a President would be in very real danger of losing reelection despite a strong economy and no serious new war shows just how incompetent and unlikeable Trump has proven to be and how the Republicans royally fucked up choosing THIS guy to be their icon.

[iam416]

I look at it from the opposite angle (surprise). The fact that a President would be in very real danger of losing reelection despite a strong economy and no serious new war shows just how incompetent and unlikeable Trump has proven to be and how the Republicans royally fucked up choosing THIS guy to be their icon.

Well, yeah. I mean, there's no disagreeing on PDJT is incompetent and as unlikeable as any candidate of this significance in US history. That, to me, means he and the Rs are running in 2020 with two goddamn pianos on their collective backs. That should mean the Ds easily win. It's roughly split on policies and such and they're able to peel off the people who don't love their policies but hate PDJT more. As I've said, what you're going to see in 2020 is a battle -- in the swing states -- over this question: do you hate the D policies or PDJT the person more? Think about that for a second and ask yourself where you are if you LOSE that question.

If I'm a R, I'm thinking, man, if we can just get someone in there who is a good candidate we can actually win nationally (cue Hanni with his dire demographics is destiny points).

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Ghengis Jon]

Man on skates rescues 3 deer from lake.

https://www.upi.com/Odd_News/2019/12/16/Man-skates-out-onto-Canadian-lake-to-rescue-stranded-deer/2361576527332/?sl=3

[Jeff Buchanan]

DSL, let's go way back to the first D effort to impeach Trump. Some observers say it started before he took office. I'll just ignore that part. Reliable observers think the politics of impeachment began with congressional questions about conflicts of interest and the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution. That never seemed to grain congressional traction and a resolution to impeach was brought to the floor in late 2017 and failed by a wide margin - because the Rs controlled the House. Do I think Trump is using his office to advance his own interests? I do.

Then came the Mueller investigation involving accusations that Trump had colluded with the Russians to get elected. The report indicated there was no proof of that mainly because it was a 2y wild goose chase led by an investigator that for reasons that are not altogether justifiable, was equivocal about whether or not Trump broke the law and told Congress that if they wanted to nail Trump they'd have to do it via the impeachment process. Do I think Trump collaborated with Putin in some way to both advance his business interests and look the other way if the Russians carried out an extensive disinformation campaign aimed at getting Trump elected? I do.

I could go on with the chronology of the Democratic clown show of the impeachment process but I'll just stop and make this point crystal clear.

Since all this started, the one thing, THE ONE THING, the Ds didn't take care of when they gained control of the House is to ram through articles of impeachment and force the Senate to start a full trial. The process that they have undertaken has taken too long. The net result has been to let those who support Trump to gain the upper hand. Even those who if they don't like Trump are willing to hold their noses and oppose the impeachment process because of typical Washington politics. Why is this happening? Both cohorts of trump supporters are winning messaging war.

IMO, Trump's behavior as president warrants impeachment. Will he get impeached? No. Why? Because (1) the articles the House fashioned are weak on substance and that according to a slew of constitutional lawyers who have offered opinions. (2) The Turtle. (3) The mood of the voters. The Congress is actually listening to them. The problem is they are, in general, voicing views that have been influenced by the shit the press is delivering to them. The involved electorate appears to me to have failed to actually, you know, cut through all the bull shit that Trumpsters have put out there to obscure his unconstitutional behavior. There's enough people being polled that think Trump's behavior does not rise to the level of impeachment. It sets a bad political precedent, yada, yada, yada.

So, to answer your question, DSL, I think Trump is as guilty as a fox in the hen house of impeachable conduct. The problem for those of us who think he should be booted and failing that not get re-elected is that in the case of impeachment, my view is that the D's fucked that up. In the case of Trump's reelectabilitly his base is energized compared to that of the D's who aren't really sold on any of the candidates on offer.

[froot loops]

There is so much wrong with that post. DSL asked you specifically about the Ukraine stuff. Were they going to ram it through January when his conduct started in May? WTF? As far as the Democrats trying to impeach from the beginning. That is fox talking point and its rich. Bill Clinton was in office and Whitewater lasted 8 years. Try explaining to any Gen Z person what the hell Whitewater was.

You could have saved some words with (3) Trumpboys. He could murder anyone on 5th avenue and the Trumpboys would be praising him.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Froot, my view is that the House had the goods on Trump on the Emoluments Clause and if not that, the Mueller Report. Ukraine is icing on the cake and frankly, that one, IMO, is dicey.

The case against Trump wrt the Emoluments Clause has now become entangled in the courts. Why? Because the Ds in Congress sued him instead of getting the House leadership, once they had a majority, to start impeachment proceedings. I think that was a mistake. Whether Trump ran afoul of that clause - and I think he did and continues to do so - is debatable. Nonetheless, I feel an opportunity to impeach him was lost.

In the same vein, I think the D's lost an opportunity to nail Trump after the Mueller investigation. Instead they launched another inquiry .... more time lost for the Trumpsters to obscure the issues and, IMO, they have done just that. Lost opportunities. That rests squarely on the Ds who chose the courts to litigate wrt to the alleged violations of the Emoluments Clause and to wrap themselves in what they thought would be unassailable legalize and facts wrt to abuse of power and obstruction charges rather than have the balls to say enough. Early on in this debacle, I think the Turtle would have had a hard time not starting a trial and what would have been back then, more probably than now, a winnable one. We'll never know.

Let's keep this in mind. Impeachment is a political process, not a legal one. The D's didn't have the spine for it and no clear leadership emerged on their side to nail Trump despite what amounts to some of the most gregarious behavior by a president in US history...... and that's before Ukraine. Now it's become a technical or legal battle in Congress and an electorate that is burned out on the subject and probably doesn't give a shit anymore. I think it's pretty clear that the D's are going to lose their too late to the party impeachment gambit, Trump is going to benefit and because of that - along with a lack of a good D candidate, that fucker is going to get reelected.

[froot loops]

An Emoluments case is no more likely to convict than anything else. Trumpboys want him to break the law and they will polish his taint when he does. Trumpboys pulled the lever even after the graphic Access Hollywood tape came out. They certainly weren't going to punish him for a word like emoluments. He is free to plunder everything, he has tacit approval from these fans. They love that he is bully and they want to be bullies.

[Ghengis Jon]

China and Russia have co-authored and submitted to the UN Security Council a draft resolution that expands Sino-Russ influence in the Korea talks and the removal of some NoKo sanctions. The US will certainly nix the resolution (I hope).

As the US withdraws from the world stage and alienates our allies, the Chinese and Russians will use every opportunity to gain geopolitical capital. Both nations are currently assisting NoKo in circumventing sanctions, with no overt response from the US. Both nations are sharpening the NoKo thorn for our side.

Turkey is now threatening to close NATO bases over US sanctions related to the S-400 missile purchase. The Taliban are threatening a winter offensive instead of waiting for spring in an effort to harden their "negotiating" hand. Saudi soldier murders US citizens in Pensicola and Trump consoles the freaking royal family.

With the Senate trial for Shit4brains rapidly approaching, January should be interesting for American foreign policy. Too bad we have an anti-American traitor as President.



https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...6597926/?sl=11

[Dr. Strangelove]

I completely disagree with Jeff when he says there would have been too much pressure on McConnell to resist if only the Dems had rushed this through really quickly (tons of people on Fox are already saying the Dems have moved too fast). It would have been much easier, IMO, for McConnell to toss Articles of Impeachment in the trash if it had been some lightweight emolument thing or an extremely rushed indictment written in 3 days with no interviews.

Watergate and Whitewater lasted for years. I mean, Clinton entered office with the Whitewater allegations hovering over him and spent the entire 1994 to 1999 period dealing with its fallout. People only remember what it became at the end, when it trans-morphed into a sex scandal and the meaning of the word "is".

[Dr. Strangelove]

Trump writes a lengthy rant to Pelosi. Actually manage to outwrite Jeff!!

This is a humdinger. He's clearly pissed that he won't get his circus in the Senate. Making it clear to Senators (without addressing them) that ANY suggestion that he did anything wrong in any way is unacceptable. As several articles have pointed out recently, he doesn't want mere acquittal...he wants vindication and revenge.

This is a preview of what post-Impeachment Trump will be like. And this guy, the one who wrote this letter, is plenty capable of fucking up numerous times between now and November.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-letter-to-pelosi-president-vents-about-impeachment-the-day-before-house-vote/