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  • This guy gets it.



    In his terrific book, Private Truths, Public Lies:The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification, Timur Kuran writes about the phenomenon he calls “preference falsification”: People tend to hide unpopular views to avoid ostracism or punishment; they stop hiding them when they feel safe.

    This can produce rapid change: In totalitarian societies like the old Soviet Union, the police and propaganda organizations do their best to enforce preference falsification. Such regimes have little legitimacy, but they spend a lot of effort making sure that citizens don't realize the extent to which their fellow-citizens dislike the regime. If the secret police and the censors are doing their job, 99% of the populace can hate the regime and be ready to revolt against it — but no revolt will occur because no one realizes that everyone else feels the same way.

    This works until something breaks the spell and the discontented realize that their feelings are widely shared, at which point the collapse of the regime may seem very sudden to outside observers — or even to the citizens themselves. Kuran calls this sudden change a “preference cascade,” and I wonder if that’s not what’s happening here.

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    • This works until something breaks the spell and the discontented realize that their feelings are widely shared, at which point the collapse of the regime may seem very sudden to outside observers — or even to the citizens themselves. Kuran calls this sudden change a “preference cascade,” and I wonder if that’s not what’s happening here

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      • try this. Same article as WSJ. "Trump and the Rise of the Unprotected"



        This fits with Preference Falsification and with the idea of a Preference Cascade
        Last edited by Da Geezer; February 26, 2016, 04:17 PM.

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        • Geezer, Flint has actually been paying the highest price for water in the country at an average annual cost of $864/year. The avg cost for the U.S. is around $350 per household. I have no idea about the logistics of using a series of wells to supply a city. Wouldn't you still need water mains and pipes that go to each home and business? That's the problem with Flint's infrastructure now because the toxic water leached lead from the pipes. Hopefully, they can be coated but it doesn't sound likely.
          I don't know enough about it either, but I've heard that the chemicals in the water caused the leeching, along with rusting in the GM plant. I just assumed that the taps I've seen on videos are connected to a water main system. I also assumed that running fresh water through the system might stop the leeching. It just seems that starting with good water has got to be better than starting with water from the Flint River. I'd also like to know who thought the Flint River could be used in the first place. Snyder's attorney apparently was from Flint and knew that the River was no place to draw water from. We have so many "experts" that we seem to have lost our common sense.

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          • Pretty simplistic analysis Geezer especially the claim that the gap between top and bottom "used to be narrow" or some such nonsense

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              • Well, it's Peggy Noonan, the Journal's version of the NYT's stale Tom Friedman, etc. etc. Just like the GOP keeps putting out dolts that Trump can thump, the papers have their old establishment people too, so this is weirdly a stale person writing on freshness. But, in the grand scheme, even though the specific sentence you commented on definitely falls flat, is true. Even if it's still reasonable to suspect Trump doesn't want to be president. He's a real-estate developer who, instead of building things, would rather just take a cut to put his name on the building and be on TV, rather than do art-of-the-deal stuff that leads to big windfalls. I suspect even if this has all gone to his head and now he actually is in it to win it rather than just for headlines, he still isn't prepared for the daily work that a president has to put in.
                Last edited by hack; February 26, 2016, 05:01 PM.

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                • great cartoon Stan; the gushing has indeed slowed!

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                  • Don't I know!

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                    • the most hated college football team by state: It looks to me like the B10 actually hates teams from another state, and MSU is irrelevant.

                      There are certain teams everybody loves to hate. As it turns out, though, the most despised squad varies by state. Take a look at the graphic above, which was compiled through a 5,000-vote poll from Reddit College Football (h/t user fearthetree5)...


                      What did we ever do to ND?
                      Last edited by Da Geezer; February 26, 2016, 07:18 PM.

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                      • Originally posted by Hannibal View Post
                        This works until something breaks the spell and the discontented realize that their feelings are widely shared, at which point the collapse of the regime may seem very sudden to outside observers ? or even to the citizens themselves. Kuran calls this sudden change a ?preference cascade,? and I wonder if that?s not what?s happening here
                        Huh...so there's a term for this phenomena.

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                        • So the hate for Kansas football, wouldn't that have to come from Kansas fans hating how incompetent their program has been?
                          It's hard to hate a team that's gone like 3-30 (whatever it is) in their last 3 seasons as an outsider.

                          It's like nobody hates Purdue football because they are so irrelevant.
                          AAL 2023 - Alim McNeill

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                          • Got a text-photo from my brother earlier, posing with Donald Trump and Gov Christie during their stop in Oklahoma City today.

                            Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

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                            • I think the choice is obvious here...
                              Attached Files
                              I feel like I am watching the destruction of our democracy while my neighbors and friends cheer it on

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                              • LOL.

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