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Hard to believe but it's only been a week since Bolton was fired...
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Today is the Israeli elections. Bebe promises to annex the Jordan Valley, outlying settlements and other "vital" areas - amounting to a about a quarter of the remaining West Bank. What the Palestinians do is important. An uprising could trigger sympathy attacks on Israeli assets from Al-Qaeda, Hezbolah or various rogue cells. That in turn could bring the triple layer loyalties and hard liners mentioned above into play rather quickly. Israel is what 6, 7 hours ahead of us? We should have some indication of results this afternoon.“Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho MarxComment
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TBH, I don't think the power holders in the ME, give a shit about the Palestinians, their claims on land and there tenuous hold on the West Bank. But, I still think you are right about the Palestinians staging a wave of terrorist attacks inside Israel over the annexation of more land should Netanyahu get reelected.
My point is that that kind of uprising won't be about the Palestinian plight that under-pined the global view of ME tensions for decades. That time is in the rear view mirror. The dominant tension in the ME today is between Iran and SA, allied against them with some of the Gulf states, the US and Israel joining in. Iran may use Hezbollah to stir things up and shade such an uprising as a Palestinian thing but it really is about Iran fucking with the ME's status quo in an effort to weaken it's adversaries and increase it's power and influence.
So, getting back to basics, the Islamic Republic of Iran - a Shia dominated, Islamosocialist government, has steadily risen in it's regional power over the last 20 years leaving behind it's terrorist basis of power within Iran when it ousted the Pahlavi Kings in '79. It's now a potentially if not outright nuclear power in the ME flexing it's muscles by attacking SA where it is most vulnerable.
It's a big deal but, IMO, a loosing strategy for Iran. They're going to draw the short straw in the end because they continue to pursue a highly disruptive policy that isolates them on the global stage. Given the Islamic fundamentalist and Socialist fabric of Iran, it is likely that if they have their way, they will continue to pursue these disruptive policies to their advantage and the disadvantage of their neighbors. The West, along with the regional ME powers that have a stake in the global stability that exists - albeit with some trade perturbations - are not going to let the Mullah's have their way.
I don't know how this will end but it will not end well for Iran it seems. Much like Adolph Hitler's Germany in 1933 that sought regional then later global hegemony, the Mullahs will be thwarted. It's just not in the cards for them. An all-out war in the ME aimed at bringing Iran to it's knees got a little more likely on Saturday. That would be a mess although probably a quick mess with the clean up just as messy.
That's why I think the powers aligned against Iran will stiffen their resolve to bring their government to the negotiating table in a weakened state allowing the West, particularly the US aligned with SA, the Gulf States and Israel, to get the Iranians to do what the Trump administration has asked them to do.... give up their pursuit of nukes in the context of a verifiable deal, stop supporting your proxies in making trouble in the ME.
The wild card, once again, are the Russians, maybe the Chinese who have the potential to fuck with the West on various levels mitigating attempts to force Iran back to the bargaining table. Interesting times.Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; September 17, 2019, 08:51 AM.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.Comment
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You're a bit more optimistic about 'stiffening resolve' than I am. Trump is the wild card. What he says may or may not be what he means or intends. His aversion to truth and the willingness to make 180 turns does not comfort those who once were our allies. I agree that the ME should take care of ME problems - given the destabilizing nature of this administration, the US needs to stay on the sidelines.“Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho MarxComment
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Ye gads... I agree with Jon....
I don't want any more US boots on the ground in the ME. I'd tell Saudi and any other US ally in the area that we'll sell you bullets, guns, rockets, tanks, airplanes, even pea-shooters if it will help. But, we aren't sending our troops over there to deal with your area's bad boys. Deal with it yourself.
In the last century, hundreds of thousands of US troops died freeing and liberating Europe in two world wars. Today, most of Europe tells us to go F ourselves.
Enough. Let them take care of their own back yards."The stockings were hung by the chimney with care, .. I'd worn them for weeks, and they needed the air"Comment
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The Lewandowski hearing is another example of how godawful most Congressmen are at grilling witnesses versus trained lawyers. The Dem lawyer at the very end is the only one who got anything minimally interesting or new out of Trump's goon. Obviously the intent of most hearings is more about providing limelight for Congressman PeabodyComment
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The Acting head of DNI is refusing to testify before Congress OR hand over the details of a whisteblower complaint to Congress, as the law requires him to do, because he says he has been ordered to not release it.
I'm not sure how many people outside of Trump can order the head of DNI to do anything. What is it they don't want Congress to see?
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Earlier yesterday, Lindsey Graham (who is always clamoring for more war) had a rare break with Trump and publicly stated that Trump's failure to respond "forcefully" after Iran shot down our drone was taken as a sign of weakness by Iran. They've now escalated things. Trump was not happy about his comments.
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The Israeli election is undecided after yesterday's election with no one knowing which of the two candidates will govern or what sorts of coalitions will be formed. No news there worth discussion.
I'm also betting that the SA oil-filed attacks will drift into irrelevance as the various parties weigh the risks of escalation v. sitting on their hands. A sort of uncomfortable stand-off will ensue with risks of a major war erupting in the ME declining. Business will return to some level of normalcy with an occasional glance over the shoulder to make sure no new threats emerge.
Hard to predict how the world will react to mounting evidence, supposedly coming from SA today, that Iran is responsible for the attacks on the oil refining and processing plants in SA. If the issue goes before the UN Security Council, China and Russia will shield Iran and that sucks. If the evidence points to their unequivocal involvement, the world should hold them accountable - not by conducting military strikes but rather by continuing to isolate the regime, demanding Iran provide verifiable steps that they are not pursuing nukes and stop supporting proxy groups in carrying out their destabilizing regional activities designed to advance their goals. In turn, harden defenses against further military actions by Iran everywhere they might strike in response to these collaborative pressures. In this case, a good defense may be the best COA.
So, moving beyond that mess in the ME, I found this interesting article that you may or may not be able to link to in the Economist. It involves something I never really gave much thought to - the potential for the global insurance industry to collapse under the weight of pay-outs for increasingly devastating and costly storms. The implications are significant should that happen as the insurance industry as a whole is the word's second largest market investor.
Of course, global warming is the implied culprit although they clearly state that a clear link between man-made global warming and worsening storms is not clear. Nevertheless, the numbers are startling:
The article suggests that a collapse of the insurance industry would not only leave large corporations and the capital structures or operations they insure, uninsured leading to significant reduction in global business growth and activity. That would have a huge impact on the health of global markets causing turmoil their. Downward pressure on investments world wide would be massive.
More food for thought and the BPONE certain people on the left, not necessarily the Economist's ball park, thrive on.
https://www.economist.com/finance-an.../n/NA/310309/n
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.Comment
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“Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho MarxComment
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Developments involving the whistleblower complaint that was held back from Congress.
1) Schiff says that the Committee will be briefed on it tomorrow by the Inspector General who determined the complaint was of 'urgent concern' (closed session). Acting DNI Cheif Maguire is expected to publicly testify next week.
2) Someone has leaked to the WP that it involves Trump making a 'promise' to a foreign leader that the whistleblower found so troubling that they lodged the IG complaint
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Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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Also, in a confirmed real story, add Justin Trudeau to the Ralph Northam school of makeup. Lol. Eagerly awaiting cancel culture SJWs to call for his resignation. Lol.Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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Poor Bibi. The Donald has used and discarded you like so many others. Too late you learned that loyalty is a one way street with him
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