Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

The Hoveyzeh ........ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoveyzeh_(cruise_missile)

That pretty much nails Iran as the country that launched the attack if the Saudi claims are accurate.I can't find a source on those claims but I did find a Reuters piece where Kuwait had made it public they detected drones off thier coastline and were investigating it and supporting SA. Not sure the Cruise Missile thing makes the situation any worse. It makes plausible deniability for the Iranians impossible.

So, you've got an Iranian regime set on forcing those countries aligned against it - led by the US - to back off on the sanctions or face that regime ready to engage in an ever escalating hot war in the ME. Sounds a bit last ditch to me. Potentially the last gasps of an Islamic state in deep doo-doo. Don't take their bate and call their bluff.

I could see doing nothing about this as a reasonable alternative to retaliation. Let the Mullah's stew in the global isolation they have created for themselves and the suffering their regime has brought on the people it governs by their bad behavior and belligerence both before and after the strike on SA.

I think allies in the ME, to include Israel, are capable of taking care of themselves while bringing more pain on Iran should Iran choose to continue to escalate beyond it's boarders. IOW, it's a fight that involves the countries of the ME. I feel pretty good about the US's capacity to prevent terrorist attacks at home should Iran chose that route. Regardless, the risk will increase substantially.

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Jeff Buchanan]

....... on the glass half full side of things, it could be that Trump is trying to protect the integrity of back-channel contacts between the US and Iran. That some crazy shit involving the IDF or US forces in the gulf haven't gone down already indicates to me that people are talking.

[Jeff Buchanan]

A good summary of today's info on the SA attacks that are in the public domain.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-attacks/trump-says-u-s-locked-and-loaded-for-potential-response-to-saudi-oil-attack-idUSKBN1W00SA?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

I'm pretty certain that US intelligence agencies in cooperation with the Saudis and most of the Gulf States know exactly what hit the oil field and where it came from. I do not find it disconcerting that Pompeo said last week, before the attacks that Trump was willing to meet with Iranian officials without pre-conditions. Trump is tweeting that is fake news and it probably is at the moment.

[Ghengis Jon]

Ethnic diversity and the CIA.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49582852

[Hannibal]

Ethnic diversity and the CIA.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49582852

Severe mental illness.

[Jeff Buchanan]

While the impact on Saudi production and refining capacity took a hit, the markets, as you would expect are over-reacting. There seems to be no question that both Saudi + Gulf States reserves of refined fuels will fill the short term void. Add statements by various other producing countries, including statements acknowledging that strategic reserves could be released if conditions dictate it will soften the bow. This isn't 1979.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-attacks-impact-factbox/factbox-impact-of-saudi-oil-outage-on-crude-product-markets-idUSKBN1W11R1

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'm not a Bomb-Damage-Assessment expert but I spent three years in a Recce Squadron that had these kinds of guys who do this using camera film shot from fixed wing tactical aircraft (RF4Bs).

The damage to what appear to be storage tanks are weird looking. Relatively small entry holes without evidence of post impact explosions. That implies the use of very light explosive devices that just punctured the skin of the storage tanks. Those holes could be consistent with a light load that a drone might carry. A cruise missile hitting a tank that size would obliterate it.

OTH, note the symmetry of the tracks the weapons took to their respective targets. Dudes? Kamikaze drones? A type of drone loaded out with light weight sub munitions that are contained in a single projectile but dispense smaller, multiple projectiles?

There are people in this business these days that know exactly what those are, who manufactured them and where they were launched from.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-coalition/saudi-led-coalition-evidence-indicates-iranian-arms-used-in-saudi-attack-idUSKBN1W11N5

[WingsFan]

I think Ill write her in, I liked her during the debate. (also)

[Dr. Strangelove]

I'm not a Bomb-Damage-Assessment expert but I spent three years in a Recce Squadron that had these kinds of guys who do this using camera film shot from fixed wing tactical aircraft (RF4Bs).

The damage to what appear to be storage tanks are weird looking. Relatively small entry holes without evidence of post impact explosions. That implies the use of very light explosive devices that just punctured the skin of the storage tanks. Those holes could be consistent with a light load that a drone might carry. A cruise missile hitting a tank that size would obliterate it.

OTH, note the symmetry of the tracks the weapons took to their respective targets. Dudes? Kamikaze drones? A type of drone loaded out with light weight sub munitions that are contained in a single projectile but dispense smaller, multiple projectiles?

There are people in this business these days that know exactly what those are, who manufactured them and where they were launched from.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKBN1W11N5

Almost everyone seems to be saying now that if drones they couldn't have been launched from Yemen -- too far away. I checked where Abaqaiq is and it's actually farther away from Yemen than Riyadh, near the east coast and border with Bahrain/Qatar. So there will continue to be speculation on where the attack was launched from. Southern Iraq? Iran? From inside Saudi Arabia itself? From the Gulf? Most crazy of all is if infiltrators got inside Bahrain or Qatar and launched from there.

[Ghengis Jon]

Southern Iraq has a lot of Houthi sympathizers and probable cells. Sunnis account for 95% of Iraq's population, but the Christian and the Shia minorities are predominantly in the south. We'll probably see more drone attacks launched from there as Saudi Arabia will (for now) be hesitant to launch strikes against Iraq (enemy of my enemy is my friend). This adds another variable to the combustible mixture of the area.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Report that the US has already informed at least one other country in the ME that they know the attacks originated in Iran. Iraq's PM put out a statement saying he was explicitly told by Pompeo that they don't believe it came from Iraqi soil (Pompeo is 'no comment')

https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/saudi-oil-attack-dle-intl/h_089f417709bf5fab124c35eda64efb9e

[Ghengis Jon]

Pompeo is like Pence, little more than a Trumpian ventriloquist dummy.

When the DCI publicly states Iran is the launch point, I'll believe it.


China armed, funded, supported and influenced the Viet Cong but did not control them. I think we see the same relationship with Iran and the Houthis.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The ME is a hot mess.

There are so many underlying quarrels in a tribal region, so many factions with double and triple loyalties. It's a fucking goat rope.

Like I said up-thread. The US should do nothing. If the Saudi's, aligned Gulf States or the IDF want to do anything with the Mullah's, have at it ......

I don't think Bebe is at all interested in getting involved either on his own or at the request of the US. The only thing that would draw Israel into a shooting war with Iran is if there were attacks carried out on Israeli soil that the Israelis could tie back to Hezbollah operating out of Lebanon or Syria then link those kinds of ops to Iran.

The risk here is the hard-liners in Iran starting to talk up destroying Israel in a big shift from simply fucking with global oil supplies coming from that desert to a cry for Jihad against the Jews. Can't remember what the global share of imports are from that place but it's not much compared to 20-30y ago when the emerging Islamic republic of Iran could leverage the West into fearing that they wouldn't be able to drive there gas guzzling cars anymore.

[Ghengis Jon]

Lets see what Israeli elections / annexations bring. A suicidal Palestinian uprising in this simmering environment could be the trigger for a major change in the face of the ME.