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Froot, no, I don't want the "Troubles" to return. I don't think they will. Here's the situation as I see it:
A resolution mechanism for perceived human rights abuses among the Roman Catholic minority and the Protestant majority in Ireland was essentially guaranteed by so called "unbiased" EU courts who would use the European Convention on Human Rights or the Charter of Fundamental Rights as a legal underpinning for that mechanism. This was achieved by the Good Friday Agreement of 1998.
Both anti-Brexiteers and the EU leadership in Brussels have used this as leverage against a no-deal Brexit. The British Parliament backed those two groups up by rejecting any Brexit proposals that involved dropping what the EU called the "backstop." There is, IMO, this dated view held by anti-Brexiters that without what the "backstop" allegedly guarantees, the "Troubles" will return. Somebody is going to have to provide convincing evidence that there is enough radicalism left within Northern Ireland for this to happen. 20 years of peace between Protestants and Catholics tends to dampen that sort of thing.
I don't think this is as much about trade (and that IS Scotland's concerns - some of it justifiable but all of it, again IMO, completely addressable) as it is about fears that the loss of a supposedly unbiased EU court/legal system will precipitate an increase in tensions between Protestants and Catholics. I don't see that, neither does Boris Johnson who has essentially knee-capped anti-Brexiteers in Parliament from blocking a no-deal Brexit by suspending Parliament ...... IMO an eminently sensible thing to do for the UK.
I'd mitigate the strength of my argument by admitting I am not a Brit, not an Irish Roman Catholic and although I have a bit of Scot's blood, I don't give a rat's ass about trade worries from Scotland's PM. Again, IMO, those concerns can be easily addressed within GB's legal system instead of the notion that Scotland will declare it's independence becasue of those concerns.
You write volumes but need an editor, a hard border will bring it back. The Good Friday accords were vastly helped by the EU.
There's plenty to be 'alarmed' about. Even you acknowledge that Brexit will definitely hurt the British economy, you just don't think it'll be for very long and that the long-term benefits are completely worth short-term pain. I think the odds of a second Scottish referendum are high and this time could very well succeed, considering the last one barely lost. But hey, who knows. I'm sure there's been dishonesty on both sides.
So I'm reading this Tim Alberta book, American Carnage, which chronicles the rise of the Trump movement and there's a ton of "oh yeah whatever happened to...?" moments. I almost want to go through the book chapter by chapter and bring up highlights. I'm about 150 pages in and it's only taken me from the late Bush years to the 2012 Election. Trump's barely been in it so far.
Reading this it occurred to me how much conservatives have thrown aside their leaders in comparison with liberals.
An early theme is that no matter how much the Koch Brothers and politicians like Romney/Ryan tried to make the Tea Party about fiscal responsibility and the national debt, it was always about culture wars at its heart.
The shooter in Texas hijacked and stole a postal truck at one point in his rampage. The mail carrier now revealed to be among the dead. She was apparently talking on the phone with her sister at the time she was shot. Just awful.
To be clear, Dorain's 185mph sustained winds w/gust to 200 are those that are found in the NE (or 1 o'clock position w/noon on the direction of travel which is, currently,almost due west). The eyewall is small and tightly compacted for this storm. WInd speeds drop rapidly moving out from the eyewall. By the time you are 30 miles out from that NE portion of the eyewall, the winds have dropped to tropical storm levels (<79mph).Of course the imagery you see of the storm makes it appear quite large. These are clouds and rain bands. The reported CAT 5 winds occur just at that NE corner of this small eye.
Freeport - on Grand Bahama Island - may be far enough out of the 30 mile diameter of the eye to not experience the catastrophic winds that Marsh Harbor is experiencing (the Eye passed right over it about an hour ago. That area WILL be flattened and after it passes, you'll get all the horrible pictures.) Just keep in mind, Nassau, way south of Freeport isn't going to get winds much above 30 mph. Freeport will probably see 85 mph - not roof blowing off winds. Storm surge and 7+ inches of rain will affect Freeport so flooding is a problem. and probably the biggest one.
If the latest (5pm) NHC Operational Track holds, after clearing Grand Bahama Island (Freeport) the storm will head West right toward West Palm Beach (2h drive north of Miami) but will slowly turn northward to remain about 60 miles off shore of the E coast of FL. A 20 mile change E or W of the current operational track can change things dramatically with respect to wind, rain and flooding especially looking out beyond 2-3 days.
Beyond that NNW turn, which still remains uncertain (a 70% probability of a N turn though), what happens with the track going beyond Wednesday morning gets less certain. That is because the steering currents are weak and the pressure ridge moving into the SE US and currently projected to edge the storm northward and off the E coast of FL is not a slam dunk to happen. Another HI in the Western Atlantic - a weather feature that could drive the storm Eastward - is also showing signs of weakness. If it strengthens, Dorian may not turn N and will curve into the NE coast of FL, N of Vero Beach but South of Jacksonville. The uncertainty produces the cones you see below (latest 5pm NHC run):
This is not a forecast. It is a compilation of data and maps from multiple sites I follow on the web. What is interesting is that official forecasting gets political and you can imagine why. Nobody wants to be wrong either way. That's local news and weather forecasters AND forecasts from official government entities like NHS, NOAA and NWS. These agencies build their forecasts from computer based weather models. Forecasters tend to err on the side of caution. This leads to local news hype. It's probably the right thing to do for public consumption. Local authorities though will get stuff like I'm providing here. The purpose is for emergency planning and appropriate use of resources.
Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; September 1, 2019, 06:47 PM.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
the have no choice but to evacuate all those people up and down the coast. but when all is said and done it looks like the coast is going to be fine. west of Freeport on the other hand--that eye has stopped and is pounding those poor suckers
If you're watching the national news on Hurricane Dorian you'd think it is going to blow up the entire East cost from Miami to Main. It's a bit over the top.
However, parts of the Bahamas are in bad shape with Marsh Harbor area in the Abacos flattened. Videos from that area show the devastation as well as the appearance that folks may not have taken the warnings seriously and evacuated. The entire Abacos are at or near sea level elevations so, a 2 foot storm surge floods the island ....... they got a 12 foot surge! Farther West in Freeport, the airport is currently under water from the storm surge and Dorian sitting just North of it for 36h, pouring 7-12 inches of rain. So, don't mean to suggest Dorian is not a bad storm. But ........
Dorian is slowly turning North as the NHC in Miami predicted it would. The track fcst has shifted East some more. It's no longer a threat to the E coast of FL. Max winds anywhere along East coastal FL won't exceed 40kts and storm surge won't go above 2-4 feet (and the 4 foot surge is limited to the Jacksonville atnd N areas). As it works North, it will weaken - it's now a CAT 3 (115 max winds at the eyewall) and is fcst to be a CAT 2 as it heads into the Carolinas. It may touch land somewhere between Myrtle Beach SC and Moorhead City NC but will remain mostly off shore. There will be some damaging storm surge and coastal flooding secondary to that and rain. It's not like Matthew in terms of Matthew's destructiveness mostly from flooding although the news is suggesting it is. It scoots out to sea after that so the NE won't be affected.
I just dislike how the news tends to hype this storm beyond what the available facts should allow. I think it is a public disservice. I'm fine with appropriate warnings that benefit the public interest but what we are hearing on TV isn't that.
Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; September 3, 2019, 10:54 AM.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. But the shine on the NC Trophy is embarrassingly wearing off. It's M B-Ball ..... or hockey or volley ball or name your college sport favorite time ...... until next year.
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