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  • Banks have ceded that territory to specialist lenders/investors. Which there's a business case for. It makes no sense to have thousands of lending officers with various sector expertises under the same roof. It makes more sense to have a dedicated group funding a specific area. So, the business model of banking maybe perhaps couldn't stay the same. It had to change as things got more complex. Understood. What we didn't need, however, was allowing banks to hold on to bailout protection when the origional rationale was no longer there. So the regulatory failure wasn't the presence of too many regulations. It was the failure to take away the bailout when the fundamental rationale for it disappeared.

    As for massive banks, I think Canada is instructive. Five big banks, and they made the same arguments as all the rest in the 90s -- let us merge so we can compete on a global footing and preserve growth prospects. They were not allowed to do this. They are heavily regulated. They are also amongst the world's healthiest banks, and were sitting on a bunch of capital when the financial crisis hit and came south of the border to pick up assets on the cheap, which is how TD has a massive presence along the East Coast now. Classic tortoise/hare story, but behind it is a big, heavy regulatory presence that, rather than trying to understand some new and weird shit, just ruled it out wholesale. In the US one reason why regulation doesn't work because the regulators can't afford to hire people smart enough to know what the regulated are doing. In Canada, regulation works because the regulator, on a large scale and generally speaking, doesn't need to be that smart in order to protect the public and have a stable financial system. Arguably the American approach, focused on innovation, is much more fragile and fraught for everyone other than the bankers themselves.

    If I'm tasked with finding the right balance between individual economic freedom and providing a stable, level playing field for all economic actors, one thing I'd want is to see most innovation and entrepreneurialism taking place outside the financial sector. Not inside it.
    Last edited by hack; February 10, 2016, 12:59 PM.

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    • Hack:

      I firmly believe Sanders would have a significantly negative effect on entrepreneurial activities.

      Look, the US isn't a straight-forward purely capitalist society either. The Federal gov't funds tons of research. The Federal gov't partners with entrepreneurs and Universities to develop research into usable technology. The Department of Defense is, e.g., funding the shit out of Additive Manufacturing. Now, they're only interested in it insofar as it advances a DoD project, to companies have to find a way to commercialize that research and that's a significant risk. But it's still being. There's plenty of private/public partnership in the US.

      With respect to Korea, the government may have picked winners, but the reason they invested in the technology was, I think, still market-driven. The technology is still worth billions on the free market. Lemme check my Samsung droid for a second to confirm. Yep.

      You can provide incentives in numerous different ways. It doesn't have to come from the free market. If the US govt announced that they'll pay $5B for a Zika cure that'd be plenty incentive. My concern with Sanders is that he isn't offering alternative incentives. He vilifies anyone who is very successful. He think it's "fair" to pay 75% of your income in taxes (maybe 77% -- I forget what his top marginal rate is). He wants to tax the bejesus out of businesses. I'm think that alters incentives in a very negative way.
      Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
      Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by hack View Post

        Well it all goes back to the internet, for which invention was funded by the DOD. So there's no Google or Amazon without the Pentagon, in truth.
        Eh. I have heard this rationale before, and it's not entirely without merit, but the internet of today is completely unrecognizable from what is what is its infancy. It was turned into what it is today by massive investments in infrastructure by private companies, as well as brilliant technological innovators and investors willing to take risks. With that said, I'm not arguing for zero government. I would put the military, the support of infrastructure, and pure research under the category of roles that the government can add value (but that don't require more than a third of my income to do). But 99% of the government growth in my lifetime isn't justified by any traditional economic means like "regulating businesses with high barriers to entry" or "managing externalities". There is no "keep a level playing field" justification to the trillion dollars per year that our federal, state, and local governments spend on means-tested wealth redistribution programs. There is no economic justification for the welfare state. Its defense is purely an emotional and "fairness" one. Nor is there any macroeconomic benefit from th ponzi scheme known as Social Security. It is a colossal wealth destruction machine.

        When can government add value? This is a good discussion to have. Someday. Let's have it when government has been so reduced in size that these types of cuts are actually on the table. In other words -- never.
        Last edited by Hannibal; February 10, 2016, 01:06 PM.

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        • If I'm tasked with finding the right balance between individual economic freedom and providing a stable, level playing field for all economic actors, one thing I'd want is to see most innovation and entrepreneurialism taking place outside the financial sector. Not inside it.
          I have no idea what "level playing field" means. What your boy Sanders means by it is pretty clearly outcome based, not opportunity based. It's not fair that people of massively different skillsets end up in massively different places despite have general fairness of opportunity, so we shall make it fair through massive redistribution.

          I'm also unclear what you mean by "financial sector." It's crystal clear banks have nothing to do with entrepreneurship in the US. It's private investors. But if you mean all money lenders, including venture capital firms, angel investors and the like, then I could scarcely disagree with you more.
          Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
          Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by iam416 View Post
            Hack:

            I firmly believe Sanders would have a significantly negative effect on entrepreneurial activities.

            Look, the US isn't a straight-forward purely capitalist society either. The Federal gov't funds tons of research. The Federal gov't partners with entrepreneurs and Universities to develop research into usable technology. The Department of Defense is, e.g., funding the shit out of Additive Manufacturing. Now, they're only interested in it insofar as it advances a DoD project, to companies have to find a way to commercialize that research and that's a significant risk. But it's still being. There's plenty of private/public partnership in the US.

            With respect to Korea, the government may have picked winners, but the reason they invested in the technology was, I think, still market-driven. The technology is still worth billions on the free market. Lemme check my Samsung droid for a second to confirm. Yep.

            You can provide incentives in numerous different ways. It doesn't have to come from the free market. If the US govt announced that they'll pay $5B for a Zika cure that'd be plenty incentive. My concern with Sanders is that he isn't offering alternative incentives. He vilifies anyone who is very successful. He think it's "fair" to pay 75% of your income in taxes (maybe 77% -- I forget what his top marginal rate is). He wants to tax the bejesus out of businesses. I'm think that alters incentives in a very negative way.
            Yes -- the difference in Korea is that it's state-centric capitalism rather than individual-centric. I agree that things ought to be market driven whereever possible. But it's interesting to see that, in Korea, no one person has skin in the game, so to speak. Everybody is protected from failure. And yet the results are spectacular.

            Again, as for Sanders, even if we take him at face value (we all know this is the sound-bite versionm, and maybe the slow thoughtful version adds some important nuance, I don't know) I think the amount of change needed to truly scare away business wouldn't be possible in one or two terms or even three or four. There's nowhere else to go that's even remotely close to being this good an atmosphere for entrepreneurs. Not even close.

            Comment


            • Incidentally, I met with a pharma start-up this morning with a really cool therapy idea for cancer. The initial results are very promising. However, they're now at a point where money is a huge issue. They can get money if they can show non-toxicity in canines (they've already shown it in mice). But that costs lots of money. And so they dangle. And they're millions away from getting through the IND phase and initial clinical trials. They're only "win" is acquisition.
              Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
              Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

              Comment


              • I have no idea what "level playing field" means. What your boy Sanders means by it is pretty clearly outcome based, not opportunity based. It's not fair that people of massively different skillsets end up in massively different places despite have general fairness of opportunity, so we shall make it fair through massive redistribution.


                To be clear, Lessig is my boy. But, well, I don't know that that's true. I hear him talk about Wall Street. Maybe I've missed it -- lord knows I try to avert my eyes from American politics to a large extent -- but has he attacked Gates? Buffett? Zuckerberg or Andreeson? Bloomberg?

                Comment


                • Originally posted by iam416 View Post
                  Incidentally, I met with a pharma start-up this morning with a really cool therapy idea for cancer. The initial results are very promising. However, they're now at a point where money is a huge issue. They can get money if they can show non-toxicity in canines (they've already shown it in mice). But that costs lots of money. And so they dangle. And they're millions away from getting through the IND phase and initial clinical trials. They're only "win" is acquisition.
                  Maybe if Pharma Bro wasn't busy exploiting loopholes and buying Wu Tang records...

                  Comment


                  • Again, as for Sanders, even if we take him at face value (we all know this is the sound-bite versionm, and maybe the slow thoughtful version adds some important nuance, I don't know) I think the amount of change needed to truly scare away business wouldn't be possible in one or two terms or even three or four.
                    Oh, well, yes. I don't think Sanders, if elected, could accomplish anything, other than to complete the decimation of the Ds at a statewide level. I also don't think Trump could do much of the crazier stuff he wants to do. But, for this exercise I was very much was discussing things in a "Sanders World".

                    There's nowhere else to go that's even remotely close to being this good an atmosphere for entrepreneurs. Not even close.
                    Right. I agree. That's a fair point. But doesn't that assume "entrepreneurs will entrepreneur" no matter what and that they'll just go elsewhere if things suck too bad here? I think the rate "entrepreneurs will entrepreneur" is dependent on a rational cost/benefit calculation and if that calculation is altered the rate will change.

                    In any event, I do think the US is a great place for entrepreneurs. Best in the world. And pragmatically, there's really not much Sanders can accomplish to change that with the Rs dominating the House and eventually retaking the Senate in 2018 (they'll lose the Senate in 2016 if the electorate is kosher with Sanders).
                    Last edited by iam416; February 10, 2016, 01:24 PM.
                    Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
                    Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

                    Comment




                    • Comment


                      • Not sure what you mean. I don't think entrepreneurs will go anywhere, for reasons stated. If the cost/benefit discourages entrepreneurialism for marginal things, well, that's unfortunate, but there's a cost/benefit analysis one level up. To what extent should we bend over backward to have marginally more enterpreneuralism and what are we giving up to do so? I think answering that question requires a well-reasoned definition of entrepreneurialism, as I mentioned before.

                        I think you best write off any serious structural change on Bernie's watch, and consider what can be done without getting Congress involved, and who he can turn into young stars in the party ready to carry on the plan. He's gotta know it's a long game.
                        Last edited by hack; February 10, 2016, 01:52 PM.

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                        • LOL @ Hannibal!

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                          • Originally posted by Da Geezer View Post
                            I've spent much of my life developing land into subdivisions or site condominiums (which I originated).
                            Why do developers give them names like "Hidden Glens" and "Oak Arbor"? Is it to remind us that there was something cool there before the bulldozers came?
                            "Your division isn't going through Green Bay it's going through Detroit for the next five years" - Rex Ryan

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                            • Do tell. Locally we once had "The Whispering Pines of Fountain Pointe". Fortunately, the housing bubble ended that development. But not until after the land had been dozed and the 150-200 year old oaks were all cut down and replaced with a checkerboard pattern of little blue spruces along the perimeter.

                              You seem like a decent fellow Geez, but I have no respect for developers, at least the ones in Michigan. I wish nothing but misfortune, illness and bankruptcy upon them.

                              There's a special place in hell for Pulte. I find it amusing that the local insurance agents bury in a surcharge for Pulte built homes due to the rock bottom shitty quality they purvey.
                              “Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho Marx

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                              • I do find the robots hounding the Rubio campaign to be amusing. Stupid, yet effective.

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