Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Hannibal]

As of today, I actually think he's going to get 220 or 249 (not sure re Florida and I also think he'll lose Arizona in addition to Big 10 states) assuming no elector defections. I guess the two districts in Maine and Nebraska could go either way, too. But it's pretty hard to guess without knowing who the Ds are going to run and what PDJT will do in the next two years.

No one in their right mind would have him at 100.

He'll lose Florida, PA, Wisconsin, and Michigan from the last cycle? I can't imagine there being any pickups. He might lose Texas too. If O'Rourke runs, Trump will lose Texas.

[Kapture1]

Oh, and let's see if Vanessa Tyson is treated by the Democrats the same way as Ballsy Ford was treated. Women don't lie about such things, you know. Now, it should be up to Fairfax or Fairfield or whatever his name is to prove his innocence. Will the Rs hold onto the "presumption of innocence" meme?

Tyson has a PhD. Have you heard any media outlet call her Dr Tyson? Because they ALL referred to Ford as Dr Ford.

[Kapture1]

He'll lose Florida, PA, Wisconsin, and Michigan from the last cycle? I can't imagine there being any pickups. He might lose Texas too. If O'Rourke runs, Trump will lose Texas.

[Kapture1]

now this is the cuckyness I can't stand from republicans.

[iam416]

He'll lose Florida, PA, Wisconsin, and Michigan from the last cycle?

Florida a toss-up and loses Arizona, IMO, too. Not Texas. For god's sake.

[froot loops]

Most states are not gone for good, coalitions change and parties make tradeoffs. Some issue that is very important right now maybe isn't an issue 10 years from now. Look at gay marriage, that was a wedge issue that may have been a decisive issue in 2004, now the issue is not an issue.

That's the way it always works, you rarely have stretches where one party dominates the presidency. Hannibal has taken the Ruy Teixeira and John Judis theory about the The Emerging Democratic Majority much more seriously than it should have been taken. That book is 16 years old and that majority has yet to emerge. Even Judis has changed his opinion from that book.

One of the lessons people should take from the Trump presidency is that there is a pretty durable floor of Latino/Hispanic support for the GOP. An actual real politician interested in boosting their share of that electorate wouldn't have much of an issue doing so. Trump's weird insistence on this wall that will not get built is a barrier for him to improve that share. Its political malpractice at its finest.

Virginia is gone if clowns like Corey Stewart keep on getting nominated. Candidates matter.

[Kapture1]

One of the lessons people should take from the Trump presidency is that there is a pretty durable floor of Latino/Hispanic support for the GOP. An actual real politician interested in boosting their share of that electorate wouldn't have much of an issue doing so. Trump's weird insistence on this wall that will not get built is a barrier for him to improve that share. Its political malpractice at its finest.

his support among Hispanics is actually pretty good. Legal immigrants want tougher immigration. How do you think it is to be them, wait in line for 15 years, do all of the paperwork, classes and tests, pay all of that money to have illegals jump the line?

[Kapture1]

Cracks forming




How British Feminism Became Anti-Trans

[Kapture1]

Harris, Booker, Sanders, Warren and Gillibrand as co-sponsors.


this is bat shit crazy.

[Jeff Buchanan]

...... an interesting question that ...... can Trump win the Hispanic/Latino vote?

The Florida US Senate race between Rick Scott and Bill Nelson and the FL Gubernatorial race between Ron Desantis and Andrew Gillum provides some insight. Desantis won the Cuban American vote statewide easily and turned Broward and Miami-Dade counties into Desantis strongholds. The thinking goes that older Cuban Americans - the ones most likely to vote - still see the Bay of Pigs intervention as a symbol of treachery of American left.

Florida's lessons learned though probably don't apply nation wide where Hispanic voters are concerned. That they will still vote for Trump or Republicans in general has a lot to do with the D's position on Abortion. Hispanics are overwhelmingly Catholic and go to church on the regular. But I still think that Trump's position on the wall hurts him more than it helps with Latinos.

It wasn't, however, a bad year for Democrats trying to capture the Latino vote. 64% of Latinos voted for Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke in Texas, who ran against Ted Cruz. More than half of Latino voters in Texas voted for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Lupe Valdez. The AP reported that Latinos voted at high rates this election, despite having among the worst midterm turnout rates historically.

Madrid toldhttps://www.businessinsider.com/a-th...etoric-2018-12

[Hannibal]

That's the way it always works, you rarely have stretches where one party dominates the presidency. Hannibal has taken the Ruy Teixeira and John Judis theory about the The Emerging Democratic Majority much more seriously than it should have been taken. That book is 16 years old and that majority has yet to emerge.

It has emerged. Both in 2016 and in 2018. Donald Trump lost the popular vote by two points with a demographic voting breakdown that is (more or less) the same as Bush vs. Dukakis.

Bush vs. Dukakis
Whites: +20
Blacks: -78
Hispanics: -40

Trump vs. Clinton
Whites: +20
Blacks: -81
Hispanics: -38

(Trump slightly outperformed Bush Sr. with Hispanics despite Bush Sr. getting elected shortly after Amnesty 1.0.)

Bush Sr. beat his opponent by 7.8% in the popular vote. Clinton beat Trump by 2.1% in the popular vote. That's a 10% swing due to nothing but demographic changes. The permanent Democrat majority is very close to being a reality.

[froot loops]

...... an interesting question that ...... can Trump win the Hispanic/Latino vote?

The Florida US Senate race between Rick Scott and Bill Nelson and the FL Gubernatorial race between Ron Desantis and Andrew Gillum provides some insight. Desantis won the Cuban American vote statewide easily and turned Broward and Miami-Dade counties into Desantis strongholds. The thinking goes that older Cuban Americans - the ones most likely to vote - still see the Bay of Pigs intervention as a symbol of treachery of American left.

Florida's lessons learned though probably don't apply nation wide where Hispanic voters are concerned. That they will still vote for Trump or Republicans in general has a lot to do with the D's position on Abortion. Hispanics are overwhelmingly Catholic and go to church on the regular. But I still think that Trump's position on the wall hurts him more than it helps with Latinos.

It wasn't, however, a bad year for Democrats trying to capture the Latino vote. 64% of Latinos voted for Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke in Texas, who ran against Ted Cruz. More than half of Latino voters in Texas voted for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Lupe Valdez. The AP reported that Latinos voted at high rates this election, despite having among the worst midterm turnout rates historically.

Madrid toldhttps://www.businessinsider.com/a-th...etoric-2018-12

Trump certainly can't win the vote, he doesn't have the skill needed. He's a bad politician. Another politician perhaps can. You don't actually need to win the vote, its the wrong question, in the future they'll need to get a bigger share which is totally possible. But again, the Emerging Democratic Majority has never materialized, its silly and unhinged. Eventually they'll get it.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Trump certainly can't win the vote, he doesn't have the skill needed. He's a bad politician. Another politician perhaps can. You don't actually need to win the vote, its the wrong question, in the future they'll need to get a bigger share which is totally possible. But again, the Emerging Democratic Majority has never materialized, its silly and unhinged. Eventually they'll get it.

Yeah, I don't think Trump can get the Hispanic votes he needs in the key states he needs to win them in..... not that that makes a lot of difference, IMO. More to the point though, I don't think Trump can win reelection. I know Kapture thinks he can but it seems to me unless something changes - and it usually does on the road to the presidency - he's done. Will he even be the R's nominee? I don't think that is even certain. I suppose Kasich could mount a challenge but unseating a sitting President in a party nomination process and then getting elected hasn't happened since James Buchanan did it just before the Civil War. He unseated Franklin Pierce.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign...nation-contest

The more likely outcome if Kasich actually runs against Trump for the R's nominee in 2020 is that the Ds win the presidency. For R voters that figure that out and assuming Trump survives a challenge to the ticket by another R, they'll probably vote for the lesser of two evils in their minds, hold their noses and vote for Trump. I own't be in that group...... and not becasue i don't support some of his policies. I do. It's because he is an insufferable dick whom I am convinced does not know WTF he's doing.

I still don't think the Rs gain the WH though if the D's put forth a reasonable candidate. I'd look seriously at any of the D candidates that aren't avowed socialists by word or by deed except HRC and John Kerry - done with them. Right now, I like Biden. I'd like him a lot if he wasn't 76.

[crashcourse]

trumps skills in speeches and rallys will translate well if his list of accomplishments continues for the debates

whichever dem is thrown at him they all are gonna be cornered into a socialistic moralistic corner that the center of their party has pushed them into

if trump wasn't so much like Kristin wiigs Penelope character on SNL he'd win easily

[Kapture1]

Yeah, I don't think Trump can get the Hispanic votes he needs in the key states he needs to win them in..... not that that makes a lot of difference, IMO. More to the point though, I don't think Trump can win reelection. I know Kapture thinks he can but it seems to me unless something changes - and it usually does on the road to the presidency - he's done. Will he even be the R's nominee? I don't think that is even certain. I suppose Kasich could mount a challenge but unseating a sitting President in a party nomination process and then getting elected hasn't happened since James Buchanan did it just before the Civil War. He unseated Franklin Pierce.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign...nation-contest

The more likely outcome if Kasich actually runs against Trump for the R's nominee in 2020 is that the Ds win the presidency. For R voters that figure that out and assuming Trump survives a challenge to the ticket by another R, they'll probably vote for the lesser of two evils in their minds, hold their noses and vote for Trump. I own't be in that group...... and not becasue i don't support some of his policies. I do. It's because he is an insufferable dick whom I am convinced does not know WTF he's doing.

I still don't think the Rs gain the WH though if the D's put forth a reasonable candidate. I'd look seriously at any of the D candidates that aren't avowed socialists by word or by deed except HRC and John Kerry - done with them. Right now, I like Biden. I'd like him a lot if he wasn't 76.

I made the mistake once of saying there is no way Trump can win an election. I will not bet against him again.


It would be laughable for anyone to challenge Trump. They will absolutely lose their ass off and it will be fun to watch. Kasich would actually pull more dem votes than Trump votes, so I welcome it.