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What matters more is how the candidates can do in the 9-10 battleground states like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Indiana, Missouri, and Michigan.
Liney, the latest general election polls still have Hillary losing to Cruz and Rubio but beating Trump.
Hmmm.. I was listening to Fox News (I know.. I know... ) on SiriusXM yesterday, and their polls showed Hillary still beating all the Repub challengers in a general election. She's lost some support, but when it comes to pulling the switch, America seems to still love the Bill and Hill connection...
Well the Democrats have to throw their support behind whoever is most likely to win the election and since Bernie is so far left, they are supporting Hillary.
Meh, she's just next in line. She isn't Bill Clinton, he was and is a natural campaigner, Hillary isn't. That is why she had all the advantages in 2008 and lost to Obama.
In this election being next in line might be enough.
She lost to Obama because she didn't care about the caucus states and Rocky Mountain states. She was out-strategized. She won the total vote. She won the vast majority of important D states. She lost states like Utah, Idaho, North Dakota, etc.
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]? Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
Oh, and also...lol...forgot...Michigan moved its primary up to try to usurp Iowa....the DNC wouldn't recognize the results...based on the way she was polling and then the way she performed in Ohio and Pennsylvania she may have won by enough in Michigan to win the nomination...
Barak Obama's winning D coalition....of almost entirely R states:
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]? Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
The 2008 D Primary is fascinating, IMO. It's actually stunning, based on results and votes, that Hillary didn't win. But, hey, some states are caucuses, some are primaries, some are proportional, some are winner-take-all, some are a weird combo. Obama definitely gamed the system - kudos to him, I suppose.
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]? Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
That's kind of the point, she had all of the advantages but didn't bother with all of the states. Winning a nomination is about gaming a system that changes incrementally every Presidential cycle. The Clinton campaign in 2008 laughed about Obama's plan and then complained about it after the fact.
It seems like they learned a lesson from 2008, from the reports I've read they have a much better organization spread across the country than they did in 2008.
Trump is gaming the Republican system, it may not matter because he may steamroller these guys early but he is in great shape for the SEC primary. And to be fair the GOP gamed themselves with their rule changes.
Last edited by froot loops; February 1, 2016, 10:12 AM.
My understanding is that the GOP has gone to much more proportional representation, which, this year, increases the odds of a brokered convention. It has always seemed to me that the parties would be better served by a winner take all apportionment in the "purple" states listed above. Both parties should want to nominate a candidate who can win the swing states.
Their problem with their proportional primaries as it stands is you have to meet the threshold to receive any delegates. No current candidate that is considered an establishment candidate comes close to those thresholds according to the current polls in those states. They are beating each other up trying to force out the other guys so they can become the establishment candidate, meanwhile Trump could be cruising to the nomination. Right now only Trump and Cruz are over those thresholds and they do not like Cruz.
That map was surprising to me. I don't know intricate details about primaries, but I wasn't aware that Obama benefitted from the "system" that much. With that said, there is merit to the idea that politicians should win states and not just the nationwide popular vote.
I'm putting in my Crystal Ball for President Trump. He will dominate the primaries and he will start spending huge amounts of money on Hillary attack ads before the Dem primaries are over.
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