Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[iam416]

Florida also voted to amend to the Constitution to:require that any increase in taxes or fees must be (a) presented in a standalone bill, and (b) approved by two-thirds of the legislature. Florida will no tax, low spend state.

As an aside, I refuse to vote for State Constitutional amendments as a matter of principle, especially if it's fundamentally policy based (like Ohio's Issue 1). The two Florida amendments that passed are at least more structural than policy, IMO, but I'd still probably vote no on both.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Well, point being that the Florida Electorate in 2020 will be different (perhaps significantly) than the one that voted last night. IF the ex-cons do in fact vote (they are disproportionately minorities from what I've read, much like the general prison population).

[froot loops]

Losing the Florida senate seat is bad for the Democratic party, but it seems to me the state is in relative stasis. It is reliably red but just barely, it's 18 years from Bush v Gore and it seems like every race has the same beats.

[iam416]

It's not the senate seat so much as everything statewide. They haven't a D Governor in decades. Nationally, it's a close state, but when it comes to state governance the Rs do very well. And the Ds won't have a much better opportunity than yesterday to win.

Of course, with all these ex-felons voting, I'm sure it will all change.

[Kapture1]

i thought that the Porto Ricans were supposed to flip Florida. now the dems are banking on ex-felons

[froot loops]

The ex-felons thing is nice, but there is not much evidence it will change anything. My point was it's not getting redder like Missouri. It is pretty much staying the same and its weird demographically meaning you can't point to some growth for change. Retirees dying out are replaced by other retirees and young people move to Florida.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Well it means you can vote now...so that scares me...

[iam416]

Understood re Florida stasis, Froot

[Dr. Strangelove]

BTW, the ex-felons thing is just bringing Florida up to speed with the vast majority of the country. They had by far one of the harshest laws stripping suffrage from ex-cons. I believe you were required to wait TWENTY years until after you had finished your sentence AND probation just to apply to get your voting rights back. And then the Governor had to approve your request. Scott gave the vote back to a mere few thousand out of 1.5 M in 8 years.

This article demonstrates just how far out of line Florida was with most of the country. Has nothing to do with politics. Was a legacy of Jim Crow days.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felony_disenfranchisement

[Dr. Strangelove]

All that money spent on that Georgia special election last year (by both sides) and Karen Handel looks like she's out of office already.

[Da Geezer]

Well, point being that the Florida Electorate in 2020 will be different (perhaps significantly) than the one that voted last night. IF the ex-cons do in fact vote (they are disproportionately minorities from what I've read, much like the general prison population).

Let's see. Blacks are disproportionately represented in the prison population. Presumably, released felons are mostly black too. Blacks vote Democrat. Ergo, felons become a swing vote in a coin-flip state, significantly changing the electorate. At least that is what we hope.

Wow, pure racism.

No wonder DSL hates conservative blacks so much.

[Da Geezer]

Since 1946, there have been 18 midterms. One year after these midterms, in every case, the stock market has been up. And it has been up an average of 17%. I think you can build a good case for buying infrastructure stocks after the results last night.

[iam416]

Tester is now ahead by 5000, so he should win as most people thought given the outstanding votes. Still, an uncomfortably close race.

So, Rs will be at 53 or 54.

[froot loops]

Once you serve your debt to society you should be able to vote in a reasonable amount of time. If you are guilty of some heinous crime, maybe not. The evidence for the effect on voting is very scant and there's no real definitive party favorite for it. Thinking that the democrats are going to clean up on the vote is wishcasting, just like Puerto Ricans displaced by Hurricane Maria was going to swing it to punish Trump was wishcasting. That didn't happen, Rick Scott was very effective at working for those votes to at least stem the advantage.

Demographics aren't destiny, the rise of Hispanic/Latino voters is the not the rise of an emerging majority. You always have to persuade.

The sweet spot for a wave election that might net a 50 vote swing is energizing your base very quietly as to not awake the other side. That was always going to be impossible with Trump in office, he relishes this crap in ways Obama didn't. Trump's strategy of a whirlwind tour of Cheap Pop in Red Places helped stem what might have been bigger losses.

[Tom W]

Fast forward to 2018 and you would have thought it was a presidential year based on the ads, but you would have thought Haley Stevens or Elissa Slotkin were running for president. They had air superiority for house races that I can never recall.

It was ridiculous how much those 2 had hypersaturated the airwaves in the last several weeks. Sure, they ended up winning, but it was well into the realm of "diminishing returns" for their "sponsors" - Plus - it didn't exactly endear themselves to their constituents when the return of the Bernsteins to Jeopardy is seen as a relief.